Rumours of Andrei Vasilevskiy’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.
The Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender’s stock was at an all-time low heading into this season after posting a .900 save percentage and a goals-against average close to 3.00 in 2023-24. Those metrics are well below his standards, and Vasilevskiy ended up as a late third-round pick or early fourth-rounder on average in fantasy drafts. That’s uncharted territory for the veteran, who is typically one of the first goalies off the board.
Vasilevskiy suddenly looks rejuvenated, though, and has delivered sparkling numbers over his past 10 starts. Through that span, he’s posted a 9-0-1 record, a .947 save percentage and has won eight games in a row. He also has two shutouts over that stretch. The former Vezina winner has an outside chance at 40 wins this year and this recent run has pushed his season save percentage up to .923, which would be the second-best mark of his career.
Looking a little deeper, Vasilevskiy also now ranks in the top three in goals saved above expected this season with 20.2. That’s a massive improvement from 2023-24, where he was one of the worst goalies in that category, saving -2.5 goals above expected.
All of these are really encouraging signs if you’re still relying on Vasilevskiy and planning on keeping him into next season. He’ll be 31 this summer, and there are always concerns about goalies regressing as they get north of 30. Part of the reason Vasilevskiy has rediscovered his form may simply be that he’s rested and healthy. It wasn’t that long ago that the Lightning and Vasilevskiy went to the Stanley Cup Final three straight times. That’s a lot of extra hockey and less time to rest and recuperate in the summer. Plus, Vasilevskiy missed a decent chunk of last season after having back surgery, which allowed him to get healthy.
That led to Vasilevskiy starting just 52 games in 2023-24 after playing 60-plus in the two previous campaigns. Tampa has also lost in the first round in each of the past two playoffs, allowing Vasilevskiy a longer off-season to recover. That appears to have made him fresher and sharper in 2024-25, looking like the Vasilevskiy of old.
Coming into the season, I wondered if Vasilevskiy’s days as a top fantasy goaltender were behind him, but he’s clearly proven me wrong.
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32 Thoughts: The Podcast
Hockey fans already know the name, but this is not the blog. From Sportsnet, 32 Thoughts: The Podcast with NHL Insider Elliotte Friedman and Kyle Bukauskas is a weekly deep dive into the biggest news and interviews from the hockey world.
1. I’m still on the fence about Aliaksei Protas as a rest-of-season hold. He’s definitely not a perfect category filler and is much better for points leagues. But, to his credit, being on pace for 31 goals and close to 70 points is hard to ignore. That said, there are still ups and downs to Protas’ game. Coming out of the break, he had four points in two games and has since gone pointless in three. It does feel like Protas is a staple in the Washington Capitals’ top six, though, and head coach Spencer Carbery values his play enough to consistently give him significant minutes.
2. If you were handing out an award for the buy-low player of the year, it would have to go to Pierre-Luc Dubois. The Capitals forward saw his value plummet heading into this season, but he’s now trending for close to a 70-point campaign. Dubois has seven points in his past six games and has cemented a spot in the top six on the highest-scoring team in the league.
3. Barrett Hayton still appears to be a serviceable option, even now that Logan Cooley is healthy. Hayton remains with Dylan Guenther at even strength and on power play one with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz for the Utah Hockey Club, picking up the first hat-trick in franchise history last weekend. He’s also on pace to shatter his career-high in goals.
4. Pavel Buchnevich should be one of the most coveted waiver wire pickups over the next week or so. The St. Louis Blues forward has 11 points in his past nine games and if Brayden Schenn were to be traded, that could mean even more minutes and opportunities for Buchnevich. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s C/LW/RW eligible and playing next to Robert Thomas. Buchnevich is still under 50 per cent rostered, so act fast.
5. After excelling in the early part of the year in the top six, Ross Colton endured a stretch of 14 games without a point, but he’s starting to come out of it. The Colorado Avalanche forward exploded for four points through his last two games, including a five-shot performance in his last outing. Even still, Colton is in the bottom six and the Avs are not a deep team, so I’m not sure Colton is going to be worth an add or long-term hold.
6. Frederik Andersen hasn’t been as consistent as we’re used to since he returned from injury. He’s allowed four goals in three of his past six starts, and his save percentage is down well below his career average. Given his age, injury history and the fact that the Carolina Hurricanes could be in the market for a goalie, Andersen’s fantasy value is quickly dwindling.
7. The Penguins have allowed 25 goals in five games since coming out of the break, so it goes without saying: avoid any Pittsburgh netminders for streaming options at all costs. It’s also likely that the Pens sell off a few assets prior to the deadline, so don’t expect things to get any better.
8. On the other hand, Erik Karlsson has continued his strong play coming out of the 4 Nations Face-Off, notching five points in five games. The international tournament appears to have invigorated the Swede, who is now auditioning for a potential trade. It won’t be an easy deal for Kyle Dubas to swing, as Karlsson’s cap hit is a massive one to absorb. Still, with the cap rising, maybe a contending team will take a chance after Karlsson showed what he’s still capable of when he’s playing in a better situation.
9. It was a very slow start to the season for Quinton Byfield, but he’s starting to pick up the pace. The Los Angeles Kings forward has 11 assists in his past nine games, and he has a chance to salvage what was a disappointing campaign up to this point. If Byfield gets hot down the stretch and during the fantasy playoffs, he could be a huge asset. The Kings have a great playoff schedule, playing four times in back-to-back weeks during the middle of March.
10. A three-game suspension for Trevor Zegras comes at a tough time. He was just starting to find his footing. I would still hold onto him, however, if you can through the trade deadline. Zegras’ name is still out there in trade rumours, and I’m curious to see what a potential change of scenery could do for his game.
11. Adam Fox is going to miss some time with an upper-body injury. Fox was on a seven-game point streak, and the New York Rangers will now have to find someone to quarterback their power play. There really aren’t any ideal candidates on the Rangers’ blue-line to fill the role, and New York has started with five forwards on the man advantage for now. If the Rangers are still in the playoff race by the deadline and Fox is out for a while, I wonder if they try to add a blue-liner that can help out on the man advantage.
12. One thing to watch for after the trade deadline is goalies losing their value on teams that were sellers. I’m a bit worried about guys like Joey Daccord, Samuel Ersson and Jordan Binnington if they don’t get dealt. It depends on how things shake out, but there’s the potential that those three could be in even more challenging situations than they are now if their respective teams lose a few key players to trades.
13. Elias Pettersson’s confidence appears to be at an all-time low right now. He’s managed just five total shots in his past nine games and didn’t have a game with more than one shot on goal in all of February. If this was any other player without Pettersson’s track record, he’d be droppable at the moment. Pettersson is going to have to turn it around to be worthy of a keeper spot heading into next season.
14. What a season for Kiefer Sherwood. Last weekend, he became the fastest player in NHL history to reach 300 hits in a season and seems poised to shatter Jeremy Lauzon’s record in 2024-25. Add in the fact that he has a chance to land somewhere between 15 and 20 goals, and Sherwood has provided incredible value as a waiver wire pickup in multi-cat leagues.
15. With the trade deadline less than a week away, I bet we get a few more players scratched in the coming days for trade-related reasons. Gustav Nyquist was the first on Saturday. Be extra diligent about checking your lineups before puck drop.
16. Connor Hellebuyck has allowed one goal or less 18 times this year and has only lost three times since the new year. He’s having a fantasy season for the ages.
17. Florida made a splash Saturday night, adding Seth Jones for Spencer Knight and a first-round pick. I’ve never been super high on Jones in fantasy, as I think he does a lot of things well but nothing great. He’s a great minute muncher who is now on a much better team, though I still think he has much more real-life value than fantasy. I really like the move for Chicago picking up Knight. He could potentially be a franchise goalie for them and fit the timeline of their rebuild. You could argue that Knight’s immediate value goes down because the Blackhawks aren’t great, but he should play a lot more than he did in Florida. Knight was clearly number two behind Sergei Bobrovsky.
18. It’s been a down year for Carter Verhaeghe in the goal-scoring department. After notching 34 and 42 goals, respectively, over the past two seasons, Verhaeghe is currently sitting at 16 and is on pace for just 21 in 2024-25. Some of that is simply puck luck, as the Florida Panthers forward still has good shot volume, but his shooting percentage is down to 8.8 per cent, well below his career average. That’s also brought his point pace down, too. Verhaeghe has been in the 70-75-point range over the last two years, but he’ll be in tough to get to 60 this year. I wouldn’t panic where Verhaeghe is concerned, however, and I expect his shooting percentage to eventually normalize. But it may be a good time to buy low before your trade deadlines.
19. There are only a couple of weeks left before most leagues start their fantasy playoffs, so every waiver add at this point is crucial. Next week, only Utah plays twice, and everyone else has either three or four games. This could be the week to drop Connor Ingram, as Karel Vejmelka has taken over the net there and the last couple of starts for Ingram haven’t been great. Plus, their games are Thursday and Friday, meaning Ingram will be sitting on your bench for three days to start the week, regardless. I’d flip him for someone who will see more action. The Chicago Blackhawks aren’t playing well, but they do have four games next week and Frank Nazar has been one of their few skaters worth rostering. Nazar has six points in seven games and is starting to pile up the faceoff wins. He’s more of a long-term investment, though Nazar also might be able to help you for the next couple of weeks. Ryan Strome may be worth a look, too. He’s on a bit of a hot streak offensively and is underrated for penalty minutes. Three of his four games come on Wednesday, Friday and Sunday, making Strome easy to work into a crowded lineup.
20. That’s now a 17-game point streak for David Pastrnak if you’re keeping a tally at home. If the Boston Bruins do manage to sneak into the playoffs, you have to think Pastrnak should get some real consideration for the Hart Trophy.
