In 1969, the Milwaukee Bucks won a coin toss over the Phoenix Suns to win the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft and went on to take Lew Alcindor — better known as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar — who completely transformed the franchise’s trajectory, winning three MVP awards with the team and an NBA championship in 1971.
Since then, however, the Bucks have only been back to the Finals once, and the Suns, who took the solid but unspectacular Florida centre Neal Walk No. 2 overall in that 1969 draft, have yet to win a title in the 53 seasons they’ve existed, reaching the Finals twice but falling short each time.
Had it not been for Abdul-Jabbar, the Bucks would likely be as snakebit a franchise as the Suns.
Oh, what could have been for Phoenix.
Though that draft is, essentially, ancient history, the echoes of one of the greatest sports “what ifs” will still reverberate as the Bucks and Suns tip off in the 2021 NBA Finals starting Tuesday.
After a season playing through a pandemic and some unprecedented injuries to stars across the league during this post-season, these two teams have emerged in what was a playoffs that felt like a war of attrition at times.
From a pure basketball perspective, this is an intriguing matchup between the top two defensive clubs during the 2021 playoffs and who have had flashes of brilliance offensively at times that carried them through.
As far as paths go, the Suns have looked more impressive as they’ve only needed 16 games to reach the Finals, most notably seeping the Nuggets in the second round. Milwaukee, on the other hand, has had a rougher go of it, needing 17 games and in dogfights in the second and third rounds after sweeping the Miami Heat in the first.
No matter their respective paths, however, the Suns and the Bucks made it this far and now they both have their sights set on the ultimate prize.
Here’s a closer look at the 2021 Finals: The big storyline coming into the series, the key matchup to keep an eye on, X-factors on both sides and, of course, who we believe will win the series.
Finals schedule
Before we dive into any specifics, here’s a quick glance at the Finals schedule.
• Game 1 – Milwaukee at Phoenix on July 6 at 9:00 p.m. ET
• Game 2 – Milwaukee at Phoenix on July 8 at 9:00 p.m. ET
• Game 3 – Phoenix at Milwaukee on July 11 at 8:00 p.m. ET (on Sportsnet)
• Game 4 – Phoenix at Milwaukee on July 14 at 8:00 p.m. ET
• Game 5 (if necessary) – Milwaukee at Phoenix on July 17 at 9:00 p.m. ET (on Sportsnet)
• Game 6 (if necessary) – Phoenix at Milwaukee on July 20 at 9:00 p.m. ET (on Sportsnet)
• Game 7 (if necessary) – Milwaukee at Phoenix on July 22 at 9:00 p.m. ET
The big storyline
There are technically two major storylines heading into these Finals, but one kind of plays into the other.
The main one is what these Finals will do for the respective legacies of the two superstars on each team, Chris Paul and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Paul, a surefire Hall of Famer, has never competed for an NBA championship before in his 16 seasons. Though his credentials are pristine — having been an all-star 11 times, a 10-time All-NBA team selection and an all-defensive team selection nine times — unless he wins a ring he’ll go down in infamy, along with, ironically, other Suns greats like Charles Barkley and Steve Nash as a great player who never won a title.
At 36 years old, this might be Paul’s only chance to finally win that elusive ring that he’s been chasing his whole career.
Although he’s a decade younger than Paul, Antetokounmpo’s legacy is also on the line as he’s fighting the perception of being a great player who just can’t win the big one.
The two-time MVP is a fabulous talent, but he’s been rightfully questioned over the years as the Bucks have disappointed, as well as for his inability to shoot the ball from the perimeter and the general predictability of his offensive repertoire.
If he can have a big series and the Bucks manage to win, all that noise should go away.
That’s a big “if,” however, and it brings us to the other big storyline looming over this series: Antetokounmpo’s health.
The status of the Greek star is uncertain at the moment after he hurt his knee during Game 4 of the Bucks’ Eastern Conference Finals vs. the Atlanta Hawks. He reportedly didn’t suffer any ligament damage and his injury is listed as a hyperextended left knee, but he was forced to miss the last two games of the series and was excused from media day Monday because of his unknown status for Game 1 of the Finals.
Obviously, not having Antetokounmpo would hurt the Bucks’ chances in this series, but, beyond that, it would be brutal if he couldn’t play due to injury because, as evidenced by Paul, getting to this point is extremely difficult to do. Though Antetokounmpo is only 26, this could be the pinnacle of his career and for him to potentially miss it would be heartbreaking.
The status of Antetokounmpo, for better or worse, will dominate much of the discussion around these Finals.
Raptors Newsletter
Key matchup: Paul and Booker vs. Holiday and Tucker
Even if Antetokounmpo can play, this series might just come down to these matchups, regardless.
The key to beating the Suns is finding ways to control their dynamic backcourt of Paul and budding superstar Devin Booker. This task will likely fall upon the shoulders of Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker.
Two of the world’s best guards matched up against two of the world’s best perimeter defenders. It doesn’t get much better than this.
Given the mid-range areas that Booker and Paul like to operate from, the individual defence from Holiday and Tucker will be key for to the Bucks’s hopes. Though the mid-range isn’t considered a great spot to shoot from analytically, it’s a tough to defend for a lot of teams because there’s so much emphasis on running shooters off the three-point line and protecting the paint.
The Bucks particularly like to play a “drop coverage,” where a lot of their guys, their bigs in particular, will sag back into the paint to try to prevent penetration and drives to the basket. This kind of defensive scheme could be exposed by mid-range assassins like Booker and Paul, who could pull-up into open jumpers while the Bucks are dropping back.
This is why Holiday and Tucker would have to be solid in their potential individual matchups with Paul and Booker. If they stay with them, then those mid-range shots become very difficult and may not even be there.
Though it may be a bit of an exaggeration, the series may be determined by how well Milwaukee manages to contain Paul and Booker’s opportunities from the mid-range.
X-factors
Bucks: Khris Middleton
Though he’s not the Bucks’ best player, Middleton might be Milwaukee’s most important player.
Another potential to cover one of the Suns’ two great guards, while there’s a chance he could do so, he’d probably better off left off those assignments because the Bucks will need his offence.
Milwaukee’s best shot-maker when things get tight and they need a bucket, though it doesn’t always happen, Middleton is the guy the Bucks need to turn to.
In the Bucks’ last two games against Atlanta without Antetokounmpo, Middleton stepped up large, scoring 29 points per game and shooting 37.5 per cent from three-point range.
From Phoenix’s perspective, it doesn’t really have anyone who can matchup with the combination of length and shooting ability that Middleton provides. In all likelihood, the Suns will put Mikal Bridges or Jae Crowder on Middleton, but Middleton should be able to shoot over top of both of them.
If you’re looking for a sneaky Finals MVP pick, you could do worse than Middleton.
Suns: Deandre Ayton
A story to watch during the Finals is how the Bucks might contain the deadly Phoenix pick-and-roll, run mostly between Paul and Ayton.
The Suns centre could potentially be a nightmare for the Bucks as his strength and athleticism could overmatch Brook Lopez, especially if the Suns get Lopez in pick-and-roll actions where his feet aren’t the quickest in the world.
The threat of the Paul lob to Ayton is always present, and against Lopez it would be that much more dangerous as he’s not a player who plays above the rim at all. This can normally be negated by the length and athleticism of Antetokounmpo, but, again, his status is uncertain at the moment, meaning, this could be a big series for Ayton.
Prediction
Suns in seven.
The status of Antetokounmpo has cast a shadow over this series that’s just too large.
With him in the lineup, you have to like the Bucks’ balance and, especially, what they can do defensively, but we just don’t know how effective he might be, even if he does play in the series.
Therefore, the surer bet is Paul, Booker, Ayton and the Suns, who don’t really make mistakes and need to be legitimately beaten if they’re going to lose.
No team has been able to beat them four times yet during this post-season, so why would it stop now?
Chris Paul is going to get his ring.
