The Avalanche have come all the way back from a horrific 2016-17 season and are your 2021 Presidents’ Trophy winners who have a different trophy on the mind these days. The Avs have been a rising contender for a few years and have made it to the second round two years in a row. Now they are the betting favourite to win it all and there isn’t much weakness here.
The Blues got their Stanley Cup in 2019, but followed that up with a disappointing effort in the bubble, where an 0-2-1 round robin was followed by a six-game opening-round loss to the Vancouver Canucks. They haven’t been able to regain form in 2021 either. The Blues struggled for much of the first half of the season and it was a question whether or not they would be buyers at the trade deadline. They were, however, able to outpace a fading Arizona Coyotes team to claim the West’s fourth seed in the playoffs, but right away they’ll face the top team overall.
Here is a look at the Round 1 series between St. Louis and Colorado.
ADVANCED STATS
(5-on-5 via Natural Stat Trick)
Avalanche: 58.98 CF% (1st), 59.82 GF% (2nd), .917 SV% (15th), 8.87 SH% (8th), 1.005 (12th) PDO
Blues: 47.71 CF% (21st), 48.34 GF% (19th), .916 SV% (18th), 8.23 SH% (14th), 0.998 PDO (15th)
TEAM STATS
Avalanche: 22.7 PP% (8th), 83.1 PK% (8th), 3.52 GF/G (1st), 2.36 GA/G (3rd)
Blues: 23.2 PP% (6th), 77.8 PK% (25th), 2.98 GF/G (13th), 2.98 GA/G (19th)
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
Avalanche: 5-3-0
Blues: 3-5-0
THE SKINNY
Colorado has the edge at every position. This is a team that was among the leading favourites last season, but were ultimately undone by goalie injuries that left them starting their third stringer against Dallas, who eliminated the Avs in Round 2. Philipp Grubauer is back and healthy right now, and finished with the league’s sixth-best Goals Saved Above Average mark, according to Hockey Reference. Should something to happen to Grubauer again and the Avs have to turn to Devan Dubnyk, then maybe some concern will seep in. But heading in, Colorado is the most polished team in the league.
We know about the top of their lineup and how Nathan MacKinnon can single-handedly take over a game or series. But the point gap between him and the rest of the team has narrowed this season and so Colorado’s depth up front can be overlooked. Everyone on the top line scored at least 20 goals this season, but a total of nine Avs forwards scored at least 10 goals – the exact same amount as a year ago. None of the forwards finished with a 5-on-5 Coris below 50 per cent.
The defence can also be underrated because, yeah, it’s young. But make no mistake, this is one of the best blue lines in the league. Cale Makar will get some Norris votes, but Devon Toews has been one of the biggest trade steals of the past year, Sam Girard had his best season and, overall, only two teams allowed fewer shots against than Colorado.
But the Blues are still confident.
“We know that they have a lot of talent over there and they work hard,” St. Louis’s Ryan O’Reilly said. “But for us, it’s an exciting challenge. We’re going to have some fun and we’re going to beat them.”
For that to happen the Blues will need to be physical and probably have to overcome the flow of play being against them. That’ll put pressure on Jordan Binnington, who struggled with a .903 save percentage through March, but has run a .921 save rate ever since. In seven games against the Avs this season, Binnington has allowed less than three goals only twice.
If it turns into a track meet and Binnington can’t save the Blues, will they be able to score enough to keep pace? They’ve been a top-10 offence for roughly half the season now, but have outshot their expected goals by about 11 in the second half. The Blues scored 14 goals on Colorado in four late April meetings, but none of those games were against Grubauer. Colorado’s starter has faced St. Louis three times and the Blues have managed to score more than once on him only one time – all the way back in the first game of the season.
Avalanche X-Factor: Nazem Kadri
Always a player to watch come playoff time, Kadri brings the edge you want but it has gotten him in trouble in the past. When he’s on the ice, he’s a difference-maker. In last summer’s bubble, Kadri had nine goals and 18 points in 15 games, averaging 18:35 of ice time. Colorado’s top line can be counted on for elite production and if Kadri can bring something similar to what he did last season the Avs will be at their best.
Blues X-Factor: Torey Krug
The Blues didn’t make it easy on themselves to keep Alex Pietrangelo and he was ultimately replaced when Krug signed as a free agent. But, of course, he’s not the same player. Krug is an offensive specialist who is leaned on in that zone – in the second half of the season no Blues defencemen had more O-Zone starts. He led all Blues defencemen in scoring. But against the Avs the play is going to be pushed the other way a lot and since Krug plays so many minutes he might not start on offence as much as St. Louis would like. He’ll need to keep the offence up and lead transitions, but also meet the likely heavier defensive challenges.
