For the first time in 36 years, the Canadian men’s national team will be involved in a World Cup draw.
It will stoke plenty of emotions seeing Canada’s name drawn out of its pot and placed among some of soccer’s elite countries.
For many, this will be their first experience of the draw, how it’s conducted and its ramifications.
Fear not, because here is everything you need to know about the 2022 World Cup draw.
When is the draw?
The draw will be conducted this Friday in Doha, Qatar, the site of the opening match of the 2022 World Cup on Nov. 21. It begins at 12 p.m. ET / 9 a.m. PT.
How does the draw work?
The 32 teams are split into four pots with eight teams each.
Teams are placed into the pots based on their FIFA world ranking as of March 31. As host, Qatar is automatically seeded. The seven best-ranked teams – Brazil, Belgium, France, Argentina, England, Spain and Portugal – make up the rest of Pot 1 with the Qataris.
From there, the next eight best-ranked teams are in Pot 2. They are the Netherlands, Denmark, Mexico, Germany, USA, Switzerland, Uruguay and Croatia. Then the next eight best-ranked eight countries are in Pot 3, and so on.
However, the remainder of Pot 4 includes the inter-confederation playoff winners. Peru faces the winner of Australia and the United Arab Emirates in one single-legged matchup. The Oceania qualifier will face Costa Rica in the other playoff. Those victors will advance to the World Cup and be in Pot 4.
The winner of the Wales/Scotland/Ukraine playoff path from UEFA qualifying is also in Pot 4.
The teams will be drawn in order of the pots. All Pot 1 teams will be randomly placed into Groups B to H (Qatar is automatically in Group A as host), then the Pot 2 teams go next and so on.
Can teams from the same confederation be in the same group?
No. Teams from the same confederation cannot be drawn into the same group except for UEFA nations, for which there will be at least one and no more than two per group.
Countries from the same pot also can’t be drawn together.
Where is Canada seeded?
Following its loss to Panama on Wednesday night, Canada is in Pot 4.
Canada could have improved its seeding. Nigeria’s elimination and Tunisia’s draw with Mali on Tuesday meant that a Canadian victory over Panama would have bumped Les Rouges to 30th in the world rankings, and into Pot 3 as a result.
However, the defeat led to Canada’s slip to 38th in the latest rankings and will stay in Pot 4, which means it cannot face any Concacaf countries, nor any teams in its pot.
What’s the best-case scenario for Canada?
At the end of the day, the World Cup is the cream of the crop. There isn’t exactly an “easy” group, just a more balanced one that could enable Canada to pick up an extra point or two.
With that in mind, Qatar will be the one side everyone wants in Group A. If that’s the case, no other team from AFC can be placed into that group. Any of the Pot 2 teams are formidable opponents, so it’s a pick-your-poison situation there.
Since Canada would avoid Pot 4 teams and a second AFC team with Qatar already included, that would leave African Cup of Nations winner Senegal, Morocco, Serbia, Poland and Tunisia.
Avoiding Senegal would be a coup with the quality that side contains and how much it has improved in tournament settings over the past few years. It might behoove Canada to skip Robert Lewandowski’s Poland and a potential dark horse in Serbia as well.
Morocco contains a right flank of Achraf Hakimi and Munir El Haddadi, a top goalkeeper in Sevilla’s Bono and his clubmate Youssef En-Nesyri up front. This is a solid side.
Tunisia’s attack wasn’t among the elite in African qualifying, so that could be the better draw for Canada, especially with the attacking talent at its disposal. The Tunisian defence is excellent at suppressing quality shots, though, conceding 8.23 shots per 90 minutes in all competitions over the last calendar year with an expected goals (xG) allowed of 0.88 per 90.
What is the worst-case scenario for Canada?
If Canada doesn’t have Qatar, then it will be behind the 8-ball. Any of the European or South American giants from the first two pots would be favoured to advance to the knockout stage.
The saving grace could be the Pot 3 team and the schedule. The Canadians will eye that match as the winnable game and then from there, the pressure is on their other two opponents to emerge victorious.
The good news is Canada has nothing to lose at this stage and it is a mentally resilient team. They might not advance to the round of 16, regardless of the group it has, but fans can be certain it will give a good account of itself.
What is a potential ‘Group of Death?’
Every World Cup has a ‘Group of Death’ so you can be certain we’ll see another one for 2022.
If you are a neutral, it would be incredible to see any of the European powerhouses from the top-two pots drawn with African Cup of Nations winners Senegal and either Ecuador or Peru.
