2023 NHL off-season primer: One question facing each team

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2023 NHL off-season primer: One question facing each team

The 2023 Stanley Cup has been handed out, but before the Vegas Golden Knights celebrate their championship with a parade down The Strip on Saturday night, the NHL off-season could take off.

A few trades have already been made, with the Columbus Blue Jackets jumping the gun to upgrade their blue line. That’ll just be the start for them and the league at large.

The NHL Draft, which will take place less than two weeks from now, is one event that sparks rumours and the trade market with everyone under the same roof. The time between now and then could be busy enough, but those two days in Nashville (June 28-29) lead right into free agency on July 1 — most teams will want to have the bulk of their work done by then.

So what is on the table for each team? Here’s our look around the league at what the 32 NHL franchises might be considering over the summer…

Anaheim Ducks: Will they try to stop the bleeding in any way, or lean into the rebuild even more?

If the Ducks seek to meaningfully improve their lot for next season, they’ll need to do something with a defence corps that starts with Cam Fowler and Jamie Drysdale (RFA) and then lacks any NHL depth from there. The future at the position is very bright with Olen Zellweger, Pavel Mintyukov and Tristan Luneau all winning awards in junior this season, but they aren’t “there” yet. At the same time, goalie John Gibson is believed to be available and his departure would leave another hole in the lineup. So will GM Pat Verbeek keep leaning into a scorched earth rebuild, or will any improvements be attempted for 2023-24?

Arizona Coyotes: Will it get worse before it gets better?

After the Tempe arena plan blew up in their faces, the Coyotes are back to square one with their plans on staying in that market and now that off-ice storyline is beginning to affect the on-ice product. Highly anticipated prospect Logan Cooley is going back to school instead of jumping to the NHL, at least partly because of the arena situation. Clayton Keller had his agent meet with team management to discuss the future. They’re still accumulating draft picks and feel a ways out from trying to push out of a rebuild, and it’s hard to imagine they’re an attractive landing spot now, anyway.

Boston Bruins: Does Patrice Bergeron come back?

After an historic season, the Bruins again face major questions about the leaders in their core. Last season, we wondered if David Pastrnak would re-sign, and at what number. Now we know he’s a Bruin for the long-term. We also wondered about Patrice Bergeron, who ended up returning on a one-year, low-cost, incentive-laden deal (and David Krejci came back after playing in Czechia for a year, too). Now Bergeron is a UFA again and will turn 38 in July. Will he come back for another go, or is this the end of the future Hall of Famer’s career? And if this is it, how will the Bruins go about replacing him? If Krejci leaves again, that will further strain their centre depth.

Buffalo Sabres: Stay patient with the build, or start pushing in some chips?

The Sabres’ playoff drought extended to 12 seasons this year, but they missed qualifying by only one point and were in the race until the last week of the season. GM Kevyn Adams regularly speaks about sticking to the plan, carefully building up the pieces necessary to compete and not jumping the gun on spending their assets (cap space, draft picks, prospects, etc) for upgrades. The results are starting to come and it would be easy to think the team will naturally improve from here. But, remember, Ottawa, Montreal and even Detroit are pushing from below them in the Atlantic and Columbus is making some aggressive moves from the bottom of the Metro. Pittsburgh and Washington will be looking to get back on track while their all-time greats wind down careers. Maybe this is the time for Buffalo to get more aggressive too, whether it’s adding a needed piece to the blue line, or finding a reliable veteran to compete with Devon Levi in net.

Calgary Flames: Who re-signs by July 1, and who goes?

Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli, Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov are the six biggest players who will be entering the final year of their contracts in 2023-24. One year after the Flames lost Johnny Gaudreau to free agency for nothing, new GM Craig Conroy has said he’d prefer to not let that same situation happen again. The draft is two weeks away and that’s where a ton of action could take place. Who’s in, and who’s out, as the dust settles after that event and free agency opens July 1?

Carolina Hurricanes: What do they do in net?

Goal scoring has been an area the Canes have been seeking to improve for a few years to try and get over the top, which is why they acquired Max Pacioretty last summer. Both he and Andrei Svechnikov missed the entire playoff run, but Carolina may seek to further address the offence this off-season. But, for now at least, the goaltending question looms largest. Both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta will be UFAs on July 1, leaving young Pyotr Kochetkov as the only signed goalie ($2 million AAV through 2026-27). Will GM Don Waddell re-sign either of his vets, or seek out another partner for Kochetkov?

Chicago Blackhawks: How do they start building around Connor Bedard?

The lottery luck has dropped Chicago’s next centrepiece into their laps, with the sensational Connor Bedard likely to be picked first overall at the draft. So the Hawks know who they’re building around now. But how will GM Kyle Davidson go about it from here? Seth Jones, Andreas Athanasiou and Connor Murphy are the only players signed beyond 2023-24 on the roster, so there is lots of wiggle room to take into the post-flat cap world. They’ll be cautious to not be too frivolous in adding money and players quickly, but have to balance that with surrounding Bedard with enough talent that he’s not hung out to dry as an 18-year-old. They’re still in a rebuild, yes, but do they do anything to accelerate it?

Colorado Avalanche: Will the cap begin to pinch?

Next season will be the first of Nathan MacKinnon’s league-high $12.6-million AAV contract, bringing an end to one of the most team-friendly contracts in the league. Now there are three Avs making $9 million or more and they only have 10 skaters signed for 2023-24. Colorado has eight UFAs to deal with, and RFA Bowen Byram will be an important deal to get done, whether it’s long-term or a bridge. A year from now, Devon Toews will end his own team-friendly deal and we’ll be talking about what Mikko Rantanen’s 2025 extension may look like. Will any of these decisions force the Avalanche to sacrifice a contract off the books this summer?

Columbus Blue Jackets: Will they upgrade at centre, and how?

The Blue Jackets have been the fastest team out of the gates in terms of off-season movement, already acquiring Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov for the defence corps. It’s clear that GM Jarmo Kekalainen can’t settle for another building year and needs to see some results, fast. After upgrading the defence, at some point attention will need to turn to an obvious hole at centre. The Blue Jackets hold the third overall pick in the draft and while that would be a valuable trade asset, it’s also a way for them to get a cheap, young, high-end centre (think Leo Carlsson or Adam Fantilli). Kekalainen might be trying to find another way to acquire a more veteran player at the position, but until the depth chart is taken care of at centre, the Blue Jackets don’t have a clear path forward.

Dallas Stars: Will they try to take some of the workload off Jake Oettinger?

Dallas’ starter was the only goalie who played at least 60 games in the regular season and got past Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2022-23. But, down the stretch in the regular season and then again during their post-season run, Oettinger had some rough patches. Was he overworked and will the Stars figure out a way to give him more rest next season? Scott Wedgewood was this year’s backup, playing in 21 regular-season games. He has one more year left on a $1 million AAV. Is it just as simple as bringing him back, or will GM Jim Nill address the position differently? When Oettinger shined in his breakout playoff performance in 2022, he did so after playing 48 regular-season games.

Detroit Red Wings: What are Steve Yzerman’s main off-season priorities?

The Atlantic Division is shaping up to be a fascinating one to watch as those teams at the bottom gear up to make a playoff run all, generally, at the same time. The Wings have made a few more plays for competing instantly, signing a number of veterans from free agency last summer, but finished behind Ottawa and Buffalo, still 12 points back of the playoffs. In 2023, the Wings will have about $30 million in cap space and have a need for a top-six scorer, and while Alex DeBrincat is a nice idea (he’s from Michigan) that would require trading with one of those Atlantic rivals. The Sens, Sabres and Habs are all going to start turning their attention to winning again, so how will Yzerman keep pace — or outpace?

Edmonton Oilers: How will they react to Vegas’ Stanley Cup win?

It very well could have been Edmonton’s year in 2023. Tied 2-2 in their second-round series against Vegas, the Oilers led Game 5 by a 2-1 score after the first period, before Vegas blew it open in the second. They played a tight series with the eventual Cup champions, showing that margin between success and failure really is that slim. So what does Ken Holland take into the summer? In what could be his final year as GM, Holland would be as motivated as ever to get this team to the promised land. Travis Konecny is attached to Edmonton in rumours, and one clear edge Vegas had on them was a defined bottom-six that contributed key minutes and had purpose. This year felt close for the Oilers, bringing them into a critical summer where making the right, subtle choices on the margins could be the difference a year from now.

Florida Panthers: What are the takeaways from a season that nearly ended in catastrophe?

Sure, the Panthers had their best playoff result in team history, advancing all the way to the Stanley Cup Final and winning a game. But, after finishing the regular season eighth in the East, qualifying for the playoffs by one point and actually finishing behind the non-playoff Flames in the overall league standings, what really will GM Bill Zito take away from this season? There was big, big change last summer after they won the Presidents’ Trophy, but what will be in store now?

Los Angeles Kings: Does GM Rob Blake have a big move in him?

Vegas wins the Stanley Cup and the Edmonton Oilers seemingly could have been that team if some breaks went their way in Round 2’s six-game loss to Vegas. Those two are the teams to beat in the Pacific Division, but the Los Angeles Kings linger as a roster that mixes vets and youth well, with an eye on becoming the team to beat out West. They’ve been in on the likes of Jakob Chychrun, any of the attainable goalies this off-season’s market will bring, and have been connected to various centres and wingers in trade rumours. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Might Blake use a valuable young player — like, say, Quinton Byfield — as a central piece to make a big upgrade for the here and now? The biggest question is in net — might that be where the bold moves come?

Minnesota Wild: How will Filip Gustavsson’s contract talks impact the rest of the summer?

The Zach Parise-Ryan Suter buyout cap hits will still sting for next season and 2024-25 ($14.743 million in dead cap space both years), leaving Wild GM Bill Guerin with roughly $9 million to work with this summer. Matt Dumba is probably gone via free agency as a result, and it will limit Minnesota’s ability to be in on a trade option such as Pierre-Luc Dubois, who would be the type of centre that’d fill a need. Goalie Filip Gustavsson is coming off an incredible year and is an RFA this summer with arbitration rights. He’ll surely get a raise from his $787,500 cap hit from this past season, but considering he had a limited track record with just 27 NHL games before this breakout, what is a fair number for him? Keep in mind that Marc-Andre Fleury is still there and first-round pick Jesper Wallstedt just completed his first year in North America (in the AHL) and is still very much in the plans. There isn’t a ton of cap space to go around, so Gustavsson’s negotiations are worth watching.

Montreal Canadiens: Who do they take/what do they do with the No. 5 pick?

For now, the 2023 NHL Draft really starts at pick five with Montreal. Bedard will go first, some combination of Carlsson and Fantilli is most likely to go second and third, and U.S. national team development program prospect Will Smith is a fast riser (and another centre) who could go fourth, or even earlier. If that indeed is how the top four picks play out, it would leave the Habs with a most interesting choice at No. 5: Take the first defenceman off the board, grab Ryan Leonard, another fast riser … or take the swing on Matvei Michkov.

Michkov has come to be recognized as the player who, on talent alone, could rival Bedard the closest in this class. But there are complications . The Russian still plays in the KHL and has a contract there through at least the 2025-26 season. Until then, the NHL team that acquires him may have little to no access or say in the player’s development. And there’s no guarantee he’ll come over in 2026, either. The upside is immense and while Michkov could be “the next Kirill Kaprizov” in terms of his impact when he does arrive in the NHL, it’s much easier to make that sort of pick in the fifth round (where Kaprizov was selected) and not with the fifth overall pick. There’s also the chance Montreal trades up into the top four, using the fifth-overall pick to do it. They hold a lot of power and have plenty of options in that slot.

Nashville Predators: Is Juuse Saros really in play?

It’s not often a team will trade a top-five NHL goalie, so if Saros really is attainable it would be a rare opportunity. What is a goalie like that going to be able to bring back in a trade? It might set a new precedent on the trade market, as we explored last week. Of the rumoured goalies available, Saros has the best mix of skill, term (two years), contract value ($5.5 million AAV) and age (28). His departure would leave a huge hole on Nashville’s roster, but also open an opportunity for first-round pick Yaroslav Askarov to break in. It has to be a monster return for Nashville to move Saros, and what a first move that’d be for new GM Barry Trotz.

New Jersey Devils: Will they be able to keep both Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier?

With about $34.2 million in off-season cap space, this doesn’t have to be an either or proposition for the Devils. They could keep both of these players. Let’s start with Bratt, a steadily-rising sixth-round gem who finished second on the team with 32 goals this season and is an RFA this summer. It’s believed the Devils have offered him a max-term extension, but will the player want to lock in to that agreement before the salary cap starts to shoot up? Meier was the big trade deadline pickup, and the risk with him was always the $10-million qualifying offer he was owed and the fact he could slow walk to unrestricted free agency in 2024. The Devils would prefer Jack Hughes’ $8 million AAV to be an internal cap for their forwards, but that might not be possible with Meier.

New York Islanders: Will Lou Lamoriello trade a centre?

The GM teased the idea and perhaps gave a rare peek behind the curtain on what he’s thinking, when he said at his end-of-season press conference: “We’re fortunate to have the five centre icemen that we have. We have the option, if something should come about to make us better in a different situation, we could change the construction of our offensive lines a do different things.” Included in those “five centre icemen” was Mat Barzal, who skated on Bo Horvat’s right wing after the trade with Vancouver. So is Barzal a centre moving forward? The position is highly valued around the league, so any time a centre becomes available there’s usually some sort of market.

New York Rangers: Is it as simple as running it back?

The biggest question entering the off-season for the Rangers has already been answered: Peter Laviolette is the new head coach charged with taking this team through the East and back to the Cup Final. That may be the biggest change the team sees as most of the core are signed to contracts. There is business to do still: K’Andre Miller is an RFA after his breakout year and Alexis Lafreniere is also an RFA after he settled into the team’s third line, aka The Kid Line. Trade pickups Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko are both UFAs — might one of both come back at reduced cost? The Rangers don’t seem like a team that will overreact to this year’s first-round elimination. Perhaps Lafreniere becomes a tradeable asset in the right deal, or Filip Chytil, but it would need to be for an obvious upgrade that also fits in the cap picture.

Ottawa Senators: What becomes of GM Pierre Dorion and coach DJ Smith?

Finally we know who the new owner will be and “hockey guy” Michael Andlauer may have his own designs on how the Senators’ front office runs after the NHL approves him, hopefully later this month. But Dorion has this team moving in a positive direction, and with big decisions coming on DeBrincat, what to do in net, and more, it might be best to stick to the plan for now. Change is in the air, though, and the next phase of Ottawa’s optimistic rebuild is at stake.

Philadelphia Flyers: Is this the start of a real rebuild?

Ivan Provorov is gone. Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton and Carter Hart are all surfacing in several trade rumours, and other depth players are as well. When GM Daniel Briere was introduced alongside Keith Jones as President of Hockey Operations, they seemed open to the idea of a true rebuild in Philadelphia, instead of another shift on the fly. We’ll see. But this has certainly been an interesting start. The Flyers have two first-round picks and no second-round picks heading into a deep 2023 draft — how many might they have when it begins June 28?

Pittsburgh Penguins: How will Kyle Dubas re-position the team as Cup contenders?

The Penguins’ playoff streak ended this season and it’s been six years since the franchise has won a playoff round. But as much as Dubas was hired with a seven-year contract to be the guy who oversees the transition to a post-Sidney Crosby reality, his job for at least the next couple of seasons will also be to set this group up for another run. The Penguins hold the 14th-overall pick in the draft where they could get a good player to add to their depleted prospect cupboard, but since that player is unlikely to be a factor in this next two-year window, is the pick an asset they’ll use to improve the roster right now?

San Jose Sharks: Is Erik Karlsson a real trade candidate?

It was a bounce-back season for the ages and Karlsson is the favourite to win the Norris Trophy just over a week from now. His trade candidacy was one of the more fun fantasies to discuss at the trade deadline, but moving that contract for a player his age was always going to be difficult. Truthfully, it still will be difficult in the off-season, but teams at least can go 10 per cent over the cap for the summer months if necessary. It’s also a time when many teams around the league could have an appetite for big change, and acquiring Karlsson certainly is a commitment. The 33-year-old makes $11.5 million against the cap — the highest hit for any defenceman in the league — for another four seasons. Will anyone bet on him continuing on as the force he was in 2022-23?

Seattle Kraken: What will Vince Dunn sign for?

It was a season full of great stories in Seattle and Dunn’s breakout ranks near the top of that list. The team’s second-highest scorer with 64 points, Dunn averaged over 20 minutes of even strength time per game, led the Kraken in average power-play time per game, and Seattle scored over 61 per cent of every goal when he was on the ice at 5-on-5. The highest paid Kraken defenceman for now is Jamie Oleksiak at $4.6 million and GM Ron Francis has done well managing the cap in the early going. Dunn should set a new bar on the blue line, an arbitration eligible RFA one year from UFA status.

St. Louis Blues: How will GM Doug Armstrong use his three first-round picks?

A few teams have more than one first-round pick in 2023, but only the Blues hold three of them. Interestingly, though St. Louis just missed the playoffs, we wouldn’t classify them as a rebuilder. On the contrary, the Blues will be working this off-season to return with a vengeance and so we wouldn’t at all be surprised if one (or more) of those picks are flipped in a deal for NHL players. Their own first-rounder is the highest at 10th overall.

Tampa Bay Lightning: How do they get better?

The Lightning took some hits to the roster last off-season when free agency came calling, and now Alex Killorn is approaching UFA and at risk of leaving (Pierre-Eduouard Bellemare and Corey Perry, too). Tampa doesn’t have any first-rounders the next three years and 2025 is the next year they have a second-round pick. They have a signed core of Stanley Cup champions in place, of course, but attrition is wearing at the roster now and they are thin on assets (including available cap space) to combat it. So how will GM Julien BriseBois bring them back an improved team after a first-round elimination?

Toronto Maple Leafs: How much of a deadline will July 1 turn out to be?

Auston Matthews is the one everybody wonders about in Toronto, but it doesn’t seem likely he’ll re-sign on July 1 when he’s first eligible to (and the day a no-move clause kicks in on his current contract). Mitch Marner (no-move) and William Nylander (10-team no-trade) have clauses kick in on July 1 as well, but GM Brad Treliving will barely be a month into the job when they do, so how bold will he get with this group in early days? Might some of these decisions push into July, August, or even September? Is…ahem…running most of it back (including head coach Sheldon Keefe) really a possibility, with most of the work coming lower in the lineup?

Vancouver Canucks: Can they find cap space for real this time?

Whether it’s Jim Rutherford or Patrik Allvin, the Canucks front office has talked about wanting to create more cap space, but several decisions made have added cap hits. Vancouver, in fact, enters this summer with the highest projected cap hit in the NHL. J.T. Miller was rumoured as a potential trade chip at the deadline and now has a new extension and a no-movement clause kicking in on July 1. Tyler Myers is a potential buyout candidate, but the team would probably prefer to salary dump him. Being able to move Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s salary, or a chunk of it, could be another way. Meantime, Elias Pettersson can be re-signed as early as July 1 and everything should be about figuring out that next deal. Caught in between wanting to compete and needing more future assets, the Canucks have to find a way to create cap space this summer, but that won’t be easy to accomplish.

Vegas Golden Knights: Who’s going to be the opening-night starting goalie in 2023-24?

Adin Hill finished third in Conn Smythe Trophy voting behind Jonathan Marchessault and Jack Eichel, which followed a regular season in which he set a new career high for games played (27) and finished with a solid .915 save percentage. Now, Hill is a UFA and could chase a No. 1 job and a healthy pay increase elsewhere. Or, perhaps he winds up back in Vegas in a more prominent role? Logan Thompson was the starter to begin this past season and only lost the job because of injury, not play. Thompson is still on the books for two very affordable seasons ($766,667) and so will likely still be a factor here. Robin Lehner is still on the books at $5 million for another two seasons, but his status remains unclear.

Washington Capitals: What does a re-tool on the fly look like?

In many ways, the Caps are in a similar position to their rivals in Pittsburgh. After missing the playoffs with their veteran, Cup-winning core still designed to win, Washington is trying to re-tool some things on the fly. No, they won’t tear down this thing as long as Alex Ovechkin is active and chasing Wayne Gretzky’s goals record, but there could be some change. Evgeny Kuznetsov’s relationship with the front office has been strained for some time and that could finally lead to a trade. Nicklas Backstrom returned mid-season from hip surgery and while he’s optimistic that he can return to form after an off-season of prep, GM Brian MacLellan seemed less certain at his end-of-year press conference. Tom Wilson is likely to stick around but, boy, would he bring back a haul if the Caps decided to part ways. Anthony Mantha has not come close to meetings expectations since being acquired a few years ago. There needs to be some reaction to missing out on the playoffs, but how will MacLellan straddle the desire to win again with Ovi and the need to accumulate futures?

Winnipeg Jets: How big will any changes really be?

Kevin Cheveldayoff has the reputation of being a patient GM who mostly lets his teams develop from within, and then sticks with the core he has. Many of his trade deadlines have been quiet when fans were clamouring for something more. But, when forced into a situation, Cheveldayoff has made splashes before. He had to trade Jacob Trouba and Patrik Laine when it appeared both were walking their way out through free agency, and was able to find good deals for both. Now he’s in a spot where he has to sign or trade Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck before they can walk to UFA in a year. He has to deal with Pierre-Luc Dubois, who’s asked out and can be a UFA in 2024. And he won’t want to approach this with a rebuild mindset, given the rest of the roster that is signed. Given how Cheveldayoff operates we should maybe dull our expectations somewhat, but he is in a precarious spot here with several players.

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