The 2023 Women’s World Cup knockout stage is set after some major shocks. Brazil exited the group stage for the first time since 1995 as Jamaica reached the last 16 for the first time, as did South Africa. Nigeria, meanwhile, qualified for the round of 16 for the second straight tournament at the expense of Canada.
It’s safe to say that expansion to 32 teams has been a resounding success. Three African sides, two from Asia, one South American country and Jamaica being the second Concacaf team in the round of 16 offers a strong mix of representatives.
But now that the knockout stage is upon us, questions are being asked about who should be favoured and who may be the “easy” draw among the 16 teams.
Based on group-stage performance mixed in with some analytics, here is a definitive ranking of the remaining 16 teams at the World Cup.
16. Jamaica
All the credit in the world goes to Jamaica for grinding out a 0-0 draw with Brazil to advance. Everyone revelled in the achievement and even coach Lorne Donaldson got swept up in the emotions.
It’s true that Jamaica hasn’t conceded a goal yet, but the Reggae Girlz were fortunate to walk away with draws against France and Brazil. They conceded 17 shots on target and around 4.0 expected goals (xG) in three games. To top it off, goalkeeper Rebecca Spencer is currently saving 2.4 goals above expected.
All of this doesn’t seem sustainable, especially when Jamaica is facing one of the World Cup’s hottest attacks in Colombia.
Offensively, 1.4 expected goals (xG) through three games is the second lowest among the remaining teams, so advancing to the quarterfinals might require another monumental performance at the back.
15. Morocco
Credit Morocco for putting the 6-0 drubbing by Germany in its Group H opener behind them. Consecutive 1-0 wins over South Korea and Colombia secured a first-ever knockout stage berth for the No. 72-ranked nation at a Women’s World Cup.
The reward? A date with France in the round of 16.
Morocco enters that game with only 16 shots, by far the lowest among the last 16 participants. Only the Philippines (11) and Vietnam (10) generated fewer. That being said, six have been on target, which led to one of the best shots-on-target percentages at the World Cup.
But given how the first match against an elite nation turned out, Morocco will likely be under duress in this one.
14. South Africa
If there’s one guarantee, it’s that South Africa vs. the Netherlands will be entertaining. Banyana Banyana have been very proactive in their games to the tune of 35 shots and 4.3 xG — putting them 12th in both categories.
Defensively, though, there’s been a payoff for that attacking prowess. No other country has allowed higher quality chances than South Africa (5.9 xG), which could be their downfall.
13. Switzerland
Luck has affected Switzerland at both ends of the pitch. On one hand, they’re unlucky to not have more than two goals scored. On the other, keeping three clean sheets might be a bit of a mirage.
But one glance at the shots conceded map shows that Switzerland haven’t given up many high-quality chances. That might change against Spain.
12. Colombia
It’s amazing that Colombia won Group H and qualified for the round of 16 with relative ease. But at the rate Las Cafeteras are finishing at, it might dry out.
Colombia’s 1.3 non-penalty xG is the lowest output out of the 16 teams, although it boasts some of the best underlying numbers defensively. Plus, Linda Caicedo is a superstar in the making and that’s always a big x-factor.
11. Nigeria
Nigeria is a tough team to figure out. The Super Falcons boast firepower with Rasheedat Ajibade and Asisat Oshoala, plus goalkeeper Chiamaka Nnadozie has been one of the revelations of the tournament so far.
All three will be integral against England, who are one of the favourites to win the World Cup. Nigeria is around the middle of the pack in most metrics on both sides of the ball, and based on what it inflicted in its first two matches, the African giants are going to be a tricky side to manage.
10. Denmark
It’s quite surprising that this is Denmark’s first World Cup appearance since 2007 because on paper, it’s a squad with a fair number of players on elite clubs.
That hasn’t quite translated on the pitch so far, though. Even the 2-0 win over Haiti was a bit uninspiring, with a penalty heavily boosting an otherwise mediocre attacking output.
Defensively, the team has been organized but whether that holds up against Australia and the potentially returning Sam Kerr remains to be seen.
9. Australia
Considering Australia hasn’t relied on Sam Kerr through three games speaks volumes. Bringing her back into the fold will only bolster the co-hosts’ chances of progressing further in the tournament.
But the 4-0 win over a hapless Canadian squad aside, it hasn’t been smooth sailing. Australia only beat Ireland via a second-half penalty in a closely contested match and Nigeria dominated the flanks in the following game.
With Pernille Harder, Josephine Hasbo and Amalie Vansgaard on the other side, this will be a proper litmus test for the Aussies, but the return of a superstar forward is the ultimate game-changer.
8. Norway
Offensively, few teams are as scary as Norway. Sophie Haug has been sensational with three goals scored so far, plus the squad is top five in shots and are on par with Sweden, the Netherlands and the U.S. in some xG categories.
Oh, and former Ballon d’Or winner Ada Hegerberg is still gaining form.
Unfortunately, the Scandinavians are going up against red-hot Japan in the round of 16. If any attack can trouble the Japanese, though, it’s this one.
7. Sweden
The numbers might be inflated by the 5-0 win over Italy but Sweden is downright scary up front. About 36 per cent of their 42 shots have hit the target with amazing finishing rates. Defensively, they’ve barely given opponents a sniff with just 1.4 xG conceded.
That may change against the U.S. on Sunday. It’s true that the current champions haven’t been clicking, but the start of the knockout stage might be the tonic they need to gain momentum.
Regardless, this should be a fascinating game. Sweden dominated the previous meeting at the Tokyo Olympics, winning 3-0. Will we see a repeat or will the Americans exact revenge?
6. Netherlands
If Lieke Martens isn’t the Dutch’s top scorer, that’s a good sign. It means that contributions are being spread out for the Netherlands, and that’s been the case through the first three games. The Vietnam win likely helped.
However, in the one marquee match they played against the U.S., the Dutch only produced five shots and conceded 16. They should have the superior individual talent to eliminate South Africa, but the question is whether it’ll be enough against other elite countries.
5. Spain
Clearly, the mass exile of Spanish players is coming back to haunt them. The European runners-up were simply dominated by Japan to the point where their status as a favourite is in question.
Should the Spanish make a deep run, they likely won’t face an opponent of Japan’s calibre until the semifinals. But even a quarterfinal meeting against the Dutch could prove to be a rude awakening.
4. United States
On paper, the U.S. is still one of the best squads in the world. The only person that has held back the team so far is coach Vlatko Andonovski.
Suffice it to say that Andonovski’s substitutions, or lack thereof, have been a major talking point. The fact that the U.S. isn’t among the leaders in deep progressions, shots, goals, xG and other metrics is also a major red flag.
But with a large number of players already owning a World Cup winner’s medal and the individual talent to win games on their own, the Americans should still be among the favourites.
3. France
France has reached the quarterfinals in the last three World Cups and that streak will likely continue as it takes on Morocco.
The path to the final will become more difficult after the round of 16, but France has the talent and experience to make a run.
Add in the fact that there’ve been six different goal-scorers for the French and it highlights their multiple threats. Defensively, though, there might be concerns after conceding three goals to Panama.
2. England
It feels strange to slot in England at No. 2 because the European champions are facing one major concern: the status of midfielder Keira Walsh.
Walsh avoided an ACL injury in the win over Denmark, but there’s still no indication that she’ll play any future role at the World Cup.
It hasn’t slowed down England significantly, but losing an influential midfielder — even in a loaded squad like this — could have lasting ramifications. If Walsh returns, then the Lionesses’ status as a favourite will be heavily reinforced.
1. Japan
No team has been more fun to watch or as ruthless as Japan. Crushing Spain 4-0 only solidified the belief that this has been the best team at the World Cup through the group stage.
The last time Japan didn’t concede a goal in the group stage was 2015 when they reached the final before losing to the U.S. It appears that another run could be in the works.
