A lot can change one day before free agency begins, let alone one year from the big event.
On the eve of the market opening this July, we saw the likes of Aaron Ekblad, Brad Marchand, Mitch Marner and Ivan Provorov either re-up with their current team or, in the case of Marner, forgo true free agency by taking part in a sign-and-trade situation with his new club.
What happens on June 30 can greatly impact how fun July 1 feels. And, of course, many potential UFAs don’t even take it down the wire, extending with their current clubs in the 12-month window they have to do so before their contract expires.
All that is to say, speculating about a free-agent class one year in advance must be done with copious amounts of caveats.
Still, we won’t let a little good sense completely get in the way good ol’ fashioned free agent fun.
We’re now 10 days removed from the start of what was undeniably an underwhelming 2025 free-agency period, so what better time to start dreaming on the class of 2026?
Before we do so, let’s run through some of those caveats.
There are a handful of names linked to summer 2026 that really get the juices running. In reality, though, we just rarely see whales like Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Artemi Panarin, Kirill Kaprizov or Kyle Connor make it to the open market.
Panarin, of course, did change teams as a UFA in 2019, but those cases are few and far between. When it does happen, the breadcrumbs are usually there to follow well in advance and that was the case when Panarin left Columbus for the Rangers six years ago.
Having the best player in the world’s name linked to free agency obviously generates buzz — my goodness, could you imagine? — but best to keep expectations in check when contemplating that possibility.
There’s also a very specific category of player that needs to be addressed here: Russian legends who could retire upon the expiry of their deal at season’s end. Alex Ovechkin turns 40 in September and if he’s back for an age-41 season on a new deal, it will certainly be with the Washington Capitals. As for Evgeni Malkin, he turns 39 at the end of the month and this coming campaign in Pittsburgh could well be his final NHL twirl.
Sergei Bobrovsky, who turns 37 in September, doesn’t quite fit the above criteria because he’s surely got a season or two left in him after this coming year, but those campaigns are likely to be spent chasing a couple more titles with the Florida Panthers — probably at a much more team-friendly cap hit than the $10 million per year he signed for as a UFA in 2019.
Anze Kopitar and John Carlson are highly capable veterans who’ve spent their entire careers with one team and — especially in the case of Kopitar — it’s hard to imagine them ever wearing other colours. The same could be said for slightly younger guys Adam Lowry and Boone Jenner, both captains of the only NHL team they’ve ever suited up for.
Mattias Ekholm has played for two teams in his career, but it’s difficult to fathom — at 36 years old next summer — he’d do something other than keep chasing titles in Northern Alberta with the Oilers. Ditto for another veteran Swede, 35-year-old Jacob Markstrom, who has a pretty good thing going with a quality New Jersey Devils squad.
Could any of the players mentioned above be on the move in 12 months? Of course. But the smart money is on them staying put.
So where’s the crazy money that always gets handed out — one way or another — going next July 1?
The eight names listed below represent a group of pending UFAs who seem at least a little more likely than most — for one reason or another — to land on the open market next summer. Again, things can change in an instant, but let’s examine some intriguing players who would certainly be wooed should their services be open to the highest bigger 12 months from now.
Rasmus Andersson, D, Calgary Flames
Nobody mentioned here is a safer bet to be wearing a different uniform — or two — in the next 12 months than Andersson. The longtime Flames blue-liner, who turns 29 in October, is a fixture atop off-season trade boards right now and if Calgary finds the ideal fit, a deal could be done any time between now and the start of the season. If a swap happens soon, it could well include an extension that wipes out Andersson’s pending-UFA status.
However, if Andersson — who’s believed to be quite particular about where he’d sign an extension — is not moved until closer to the 2026 trade deadline, there’s a solid chance he could be a rental in one city, then hit the open market as a highly desired right-shot defenceman who can move the puck.
Teams would be lining up.
Martin Necas, RW, Colorado Avalanche
Could the Avs deal a top-line, pending-UFA winger in two straight seasons? We were all floored when Colorado traded Mikko Rantanen in the final year of his contract, which is a good reminder that sometimes these high-profile, pending-UFA cases do not go as expected.
Of course, the late-January trade that sent Rantanen to Carolina — before he ultimately wound up in Dallas and signed on to stay there — returned Necas. The latter inked a two-year pact as an RFA last summer with an eye to hitting the open market in 2026.
It sure seems like Necas has interest in the UFA experience and if Colorado can’t figure out a plan to keep the 26-year-old in the fold, he’d be enormously attractive on the open market as a six-foot-three winger with several birthdays to go before he even hits 30.
Alex Tuch, RW, Buffalo Sabres
We’re still in the afterglow of the Panthers winning their second straight title on the strength of having talented players who are zero fun to face. Tuch — with his six-foot-four, 220-pound frame and scoring touch — would scream “missing piece” to any number of clubs trying to find the formula for playoff success.
He doesn’t turn 30 until next May, a couple months before he could become a UFA. The Sabres will surely do all they can to convince a Western New York boy to stay in Buffalo, which is a special place to Tuch. If the relationship doesn’t continue, though, that beeping sound you’ll here is Brinks trucks backing up to Tuch’s front door.
Adrian Kempe, RW, Los Angeles Kings
Kempe is coming off his second 35-goal campaign and had a career-best 41 three seasons ago in 2022-23. He’s a goal scorer, and the Kings need goals, so maybe this one gets done and dusted without much trouble.
However, Kempe — who turns 29 in September — is tracking a big-time raise from his current $5.5-million cap hit and that fact alone makes this situation one worth monitoring.
Nik Ehlers, who has never posted a 30-goal season, just signed for $8.5 million per season with the Hurricanes. That would lead you to believe Kempe’s number will push higher — maybe significantly higher — than that.
If he goes out and buries 40 this year, things could get extremely interesting.
Anthony Stolarz, G, Toronto Maple Leafs
One year ago, the Leafs took a low-risk UFA bet on Stolarz and he rewarded them with a .926 save percentage in 43 games. Since the start of 2023-24, Stolarz has the best SP (.926) of any goalie in the league with at least 60 games played.
Of course, GP is the issue with Stolarz because 44 goalies — including his batterymate, Joseph Woll — have played more games than the big New Jersey native in the past two seasons.
His inexperience as a starter coupled with an injury history just makes this something less than a slam-dunk situation between Stolarz and the Buds. You can understand the reluctance on the team’s part to immediately dive in simply based on a small body of work.
That said, some squad would leap without a second thought at the chance to sign Stolarz based solely on how barren the UFA goaltending market tends to be. Jake Allen was set to be the headliner of the 2025 class before he re-upped in New Jersey just before July 1.
No shade at Allen, but when a 34-year-old who’s been a backup or 1B for much of his career is the best guy out there, it’s a discouraging sign for teams hoping to improve in the crease.
If Stolarz splits time with Woll this year and shows well when he’s in goal, you have to think some team would be happy to throw term his way, even if he’s 32 on July 1 next season.
Filip Gustavsson, G, Minnesota Wild
Let’s keep it goalie for a minute and talk about Gustavsson.
While his profile may differ from that of Stolarz a bit, what remains consistent is the fact there’s sure to be a team or two desperate for goaltending that gets love in its eyes when viewing Gustavsson.
The Swede, who just turned 27 in June, has now spent three seasons in Minnesota and while things went well this past year, don’t forget Gustavsson was available on the trade market at this time last summer following an underwhelming 2023-24 campaign.
Minnesota might look favourably on an all-Swede tandem of Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt long-term, but the Wild do have to lock down Kirill Kaprizov at a large number, figure out what’s going to happen with current RFA Marco Rossi while keeping in mind that a big Zeev Buium extension is potentially only 12 months away at this point.
And, again, Gustavsson — with a strong season — would command enormous attention on the open market given the lack of goaltending options available.
Mason Marchment, LW, Seattle Kraken
Marchment was just moved in a salary dump by the Dallas Stars and should get a real shot to goose his numbers with prime ice time in Seattle. If this 30-year-old, six-foot-five winger posts a season of close to 30 goals, clubs — including the Kraken, obviously — are going to start rubbing their hands together.
Recall, Dallas jumped at the chance to sign Marchment to a four-year deal in the summer of 2022 based on a 54-game breakout the season prior with the Panthers. When you’re as big as he is and have some touch, teams come calling.
Mike Matheson, D, Montreal Canadiens
May we suggest an under-the-radar candidate?
Matheson had 62 points in 2023-24, more than all but eight defencemen in the NHL that year. Then rookie of the year Lane Hutson came along, snagged that QB job on PP1 and Matheson’s role shrunk in Montreal.
Like many offence-first blue-liners, Matheson asks you to live with some mistakes. But he’s a sublime skater who’s 31 years old and could be very attractive to a club that needs a talent injection on the back end.
Couple that with diminishing opportunities for Matheson in his hometown and he may be ready for a new challenge.
