The day after Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final — a 6-1 Florida victory — one longtime NHL executive said, “Edmonton’s come a long way. Very impressive. They are learning how to win.”
“The problem is Florida already knows how to win.”
The Panthers proved him right, erasing their stunning Game 4 collapse with two performances to be screened at coaching clinics for years to come. It’s their best attribute: the longer the series, the better they get.
That’s the mountain the Oilers — and the rest of the NHL — must climb.
“If I feel that there’s a good window to win here over and over again, then signing is no problem,” Connor McDavid said Thursday, although he stopped far short of making it a guarantee.
His future is the biggest individual story in the league, so let’s dive in.
The first thing is not to panic if this isn’t done July 1 — and it sure looks like it won’t be. Last season, Leon Draisaitl extended on Sept. 3, so the Oilers aren’t afraid of letting things marinate. McDavid is represented by Judd Moldaver, who also represents Auston Matthews. Two summers ago, the Maple Leafs’ captain signed his extension on Aug. 23, so the agent isn’t averse to waiting, either. And I don’t think McDavid’s getting traded even if he starts the season unsigned.
Edmonton has real positives in its favour, starting with Leon Draisaitl. Yes, you need depth, but you also need star talent. Where is McDavid going to find a better co-pilot, on or off the ice? I’ll gladly bet long-term on those two. Players with multiple options (Connor Brown being one) have chosen Edmonton for less, because they see a path to individual and team success.
The Stanley Cup Final eroded good memories, but after losing their first two playoff games in Los Angeles, the Oilers stampeded through the Kings, Vegas and Dallas — winning 12 of 14, all but one without Mattias Ekholm. Nobody saw that coming, especially against Western Conference powerhouses from Nevada and Texas.
Mark Messier has a good saying: “In the salary cap era, everyone has flaws. How do you overcome them?” The West is strong and the contenders are anxious to get better, but the Oilers are there with both 29 and 97 in their primes. Whatever holes they have, the Oilers have reached two straight Stanley Cup Finals and come within a combined three wins of the ultimate goal.
What McDavid’s asking is: how are we going to get there? Obviously, a lot of that is roster construction, but I’m still stuck on McDavid’s post-Cup comment about “trying the same thing over and over again, just banging our heads against the wall.” Statistically, the Oilers were as good as anyone exiting their own zone during the post-season’s first three rounds. Under Florida’s withering forecheck, that evaporated. So this might be as much about philosophy as personnel. We’ll see.
Not insignificant: the cap is heading up, up, up for the first time in five years. Draisaitl is at $14 million, Evan Bouchard — “definitely a deal that needs to get done and very important for us,” McDavid said — likely will be in eight figures, too. It’s a puzzle, but things would be much worse if the cap stayed stagnant.
During his last negotiations, McDavid — then represented by Jeff Jackson, now Edmonton’s CEO of Hockey Operations — told the Oilers he wouldn’t ask for the maximum 20 per cent. The Oilers exhaled in gratitude, because they were prepared to give it to him. The initial agreement was for $13.33 million, but he dialled it back to the current $12.5, giving the team more flexibility. (He could be making $50 million, and no one would dare complain.)
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32 Thoughts: The Podcast
Hockey fans already know the name, but this is not the blog. From Sportsnet, 32 Thoughts: The Podcast with NHL Insider Elliotte Friedman and Kyle Bukauskas is a weekly deep dive into the biggest news and interviews from the hockey world.
He’s going to be at a massive number (15? 16? 17?), but I’m going to guess not as high as it could be. Where I do think McDavid could flex leverage is with term. If he wanted to make certain the Oilers stayed sharpest in the pursuit of Stanley, going short would do it. He will be 29 in January. I’m stressing this is my opinion only: What if he extended two years, leaving him open for something else at age 31? That extends his Edmonton commitment to 13 years, and avoids any potential organizational complacency.
I don’t believe McDavid is eager to flee Northern Alberta. I see it as, “I’m all-in every year. How do I make sure everyone else is wired the same?” Short-term does that.
32 THOUGHTS
1. On Rasmus Andersson: the feeling across the league is the talented defenceman is ready for something new. I believe the Flames are willing, but only when they get what they want. There’s significant interest, which helps.
2. Isiah Thomas, who ran the Raptors as I broke into the business, taught me a valuable lesson: “Around the draft, everybody lies.” There’s lots of crazy stuff that’s hard to verify; the world changes in a hurry. Keep that in mind with everything you read and hear, including from me.
Let’s look at a few things, starting with Mitch Marner. Teams are preparing for Marner to meet with teams starting July 1 (probably virtually, unless someone wants to come to Toronto), and then him visiting a team or two before announcing a decision. When I mentioned that on the podcast last week, a few sources reached out to say it’s a good plan with one flaw: what if a team Marner likes says, “We don’t have time for this. We need to know if you’re coming. If you’re not, we can’t wait for Plan B. Sorry, give us an answer.”
Toronto was offered a meeting, but I’m not sure they’d feel the need to go through with it. I got pushback on the idea Marner could opt for a four-year deal — giving him another payday at age 32 — but a few teams said they’d heard about it. Lots of twists and turns on this file over the next two weeks. Barring a sudden change in philosophy, Carolina is expected to push all chips into the pot. I’m watching Vegas, with several of their Western Conference brethren pushing hard.
3. Still no official update on Alex Pietrangelo, but no certainty he will be ready to play next season. Vegas is preparing for that possibility. His great career took a toll on his body.
4. If Sam Bennett has changed his phone number, I apologize to the person I texted at 2:26am Friday asking if the extension was real.
5. As the sun rose, everyone was pumping the brakes on Bennett extension talk, warning not to take such liquified announcements too seriously. It’s hard to believe he’d make such a bold proclamation without knowing where this was going, but nothing’s done until it is done.
Considering how great this marriage is for both player and team, it’s taken a lot longer than everyone expected. It is believed Florida moved from its training-camp-ish offer, the contract Carter Verhaeghe’s accepted: eight years, $56 million — with bonus structure and a few seasons of no-move protection. (I’m guessing we’re now in the $7.5 million range.) The Panthers and Sam Reinhart went right down to the eight-year deadline (11:59 pm ET on June 30) before getting an extension done last summer, so remember that when considering Florida’s negotiations.
6. In the celebration, GM Bill Zito said he’s going to try to bring back everyone, and I do think he will make a legit attempt. Tough spot for him, really. The Cup’s on the ice, everyone’s celebrating with their loved ones, hard for him to say, “I’m going to let them all walk!”
Brad Marchand had a Ruthian spring as a player, quote machine, Dairy Queen pitchman and Instagram troller. He said before the Final, he’d consider all options. At the same time, a few sources said he’d get at least $24 million on the open market. By the end, they were saying that was way too low. What you’re going to see here is different teams trying to hit the magic overall salary number, but at different terms and structures.
Florida is first up, obviously, with the advantage of already being a perfect fit and good state taxes. If he doesn’t stay, Toronto and Utah are expected to be among the serious pursuers. Utah has indicated it is not crazy about term, Toronto could prefer to stretch it out, but, watching him in the final, who wouldn’t want him? Los Angeles (who had a deal with Boston, only to find out Marchand wanted Florida), New Jersey, Washington, etc., etc., he can fit anywhere.
One coach pointed out how he went from Boston captain to willing third-liner. “How many of those trade deadline deals don’t work because of chemistry?” he asked. “You dream of a player accepting a role as easily as he did.”
7. At the start of the season, it seemed impossible Florida would keep Aaron Ekblad. No one has confirmed this, but, from what I understand, the Panthers made an offer last summer that was easily rejected. There was nothing substantial since. During the Tampa Bay series, Ekblad returned from his PED suspension to play the best hockey of his career. In a league starving for right-hand shots, he raced up free-agency lists, with pursuers anticipating Florida would not be able to keep him.
They are going to try. He’s 29, and has battled some pretty serious injuries. This is a situation where you could see the Panthers giving term to keep down the AAV. Remember during the final, Ekblad said he’d do what he could to stay. All of these outcomes also affect Nate Schmidt, who had an excellent season. In a perfect world, they’d happily keep him, but you can’t hold on to everyone, and anyone who looks that good in a headband will have suitors.
8. Ekblad staying changes the defence market. It puts the Flames in even better position with Andersson. Among left shots, Vladislav Gavrikov is not believed to have a long list of places he wants to go if he leaves Los Angeles, which is why so many are pointing to the Rangers.
9. Winnipeg hopes Jonathan Toews’ arrival entices Nikolaj Ehlers to stay. It’s more likely he tests the market July 1. He’s in no rush, and the Jets are formulating backup options just in case.
10. Toews’ last NHL game: April 13, 2023. Prior to these playoffs, Gabriel Landeskog’s last NHL game: June 26, 2022. What you’re betting on, if you’re the Jets, is that Toews follows Landeskog’s lead. He’s certainly motivated. They are different recoveries, but similar in one particular way: no one really knew if the Colorado captain’s return would last. Could he practice on back-to-back days? Yes. Could he play back-to-back AHL games? Yes. Could he handle Stanley Cup playoff hockey? Yes. It went better than almost anyone imagined.
A lot of interest, more serious conversations with Colorado and Tampa Bay, but Toews liked the idea of going home as much as the Jets liked the idea of having him. He certainly could have gone somewhere quieter, and it’s a good sign of how he feels that he isn’t shying away from a more intense spotlight. Toews wanted a team with a chance to win, and the reigning Presidents’ Trophy champions qualify. Remember: the $5 million in bonuses can be pushed into Winnipeg’s 2026-27 cap, if necessary, when the ceiling projects to be $104 million. If he gets all those playoffs extras, the Jets (and their fans) will be ecstatic.
11. Toews’ bonus-laden deal could be the template for Jamie Benn and Claude Giroux. In Joe Pavelski’s final two seasons, he signed for $6 million and then $5.5 million, including bonuses. He was older than Benn, but also scored more (although Benn had 49 points this year). I’ve heard Giroux and Ottawa were battling over bonus structure. Pat Brisson, Giroux’s agent, also represents Toews, so you can see what a finished product might look like. Plenty of time to sort this out. This is grind season.
12. Pittsburgh is the NHL’s salmon, swimming against the stream. The Penguins entered the big rebuild; everyone else is trying to get better. You’re going to see some situations where teams who may not need to do anything see offers for their players get better and better due to limited supply and so much demand.
One example: Charlie Coyle, Colorado. Because Logan O’Connor is expected to start the season on LTIR, the Avalanche made it clear they don’t need to do anything. Other teams keep calling, though. The more you say no, the more you see how far other teams are willing to go. I think the same is happening with Alex Tuch in Buffalo. The Sabres have a lot going on: Bowen Byram, JJ Peterka — who they’ve reluctantly put on the market, although several teams say Buffalo really doesn’t want to do it — and Tuch, who has one year remaining and has not asked to move. But you can see why other teams would pursue.
13. Still think Utah would like to do something big, whether by trade or free agency.
14. There are four reasons you’re hearing a lot about the Islanders: first, they have the No. 1 pick. Second, their fans dream of a second high pick to bring home James Hagens. Third, there’s a new GM working his way around the NHL. Fourth, they have four arbitration cases that could eat up most of their cap space. That’s something Mathieu Darche must navigate/plan for right away.
There was a lot of noise this week about Alexander Romanov, and I do think teams have asked, but the true decision is Noah Dobson. (I’m told the price on Romanov was high.) Dobson is a year from unrestricted free agency and for a right-hand defenceman with a surging cap, that’s going to be a big number. Dobson must fulfill his end of the bargain by getting back to his 70-point level. There are a few different paths, but if Dobson stays, others will go, especially if Matthew Schaefer is their pick and in the NHL come October. Potentially crowded blue line.
15. There are several teams who believe that, on the open market, John Tavares — 13 months older than Brock Nelson — could match the latter’s three-year, $7.5 million AAV contract from Colorado. Again, Toronto could choose to stretch it out to make the money match over a longer term. We’ll see.
The Maple Leafs wanted Mason Marchment, and were disappointed not to get him. Toronto wild-card: to replace Marner, could they move a defenceman to get a forward?
16. The Marchment trade is not the last we’ve heard of Seattle. Definitely active.
17. Vancouver was very interested in Matt Duchene, but he never wanted to leave Dallas. There were teams prepared to offer more AAV on a shorter term — the Canucks one of them — but the heart wants what the heart wants, and the Stars made it work. Dallas wanted to keep Mikael Granlund, but he’s too much for Texas, now. Jim Nill did work over the last 24 hours, making sure Mavrik Bourque avoided any offer-sheet temptation. A few sources said to take Matt Dumba off my buyout list because they think there will be trade possibilities for him. Those same sources also said they expect Ilya Lyubushkin to stay put. You always need defensive depth.
Don’t forget, you can go 10 per cent over the cap until puck drop in October. Nill doesn’t have to do everything right away. Dallas is a destination. Players want to go there, so you have to be prepared for the Stars to be in things we don’t always expect. They will discuss an extension with Jason Robertson over the next few weeks.
18. Dallas is expanding its coaching search. The Stars interviewed internal candidates first: including assistant Alain Nasreddine and AHL Texas bench boss Neil Graham. (Someone asked if they interviewed another assistant coach, Misha Donskov. I honestly don’t know, but he’s going to get a shot sometime.) I believe Graham has a legit shot at the job, but there are more candidates to talk to. Edmonton GM Stan Bowman wouldn’t say if the Stars asked for permission to talk to Glen Gulutzan, but he is expected to be on their list.
19. As mentioned on Friday’s pod, I expect Vancouver to investigate an extension with Conor Garland. He is eligible July 1.
20. New Jersey is not expected to qualify Cody Glass, making him a free agent.
21. One GM described Jake Allan as “the Belle of the Ball” when it comes to goalies. After sitting next to him on Hockey Night in Canada, definitely not the way I’d describe him.
22. Team we probably are not talking about enough to try something major: Columbus.
23. The NHL’s buyout window is now open. Anyone a team wishes to buy out must first be put on waivers, unless they have a no-move clause. (No one was waived Friday.) While an NMC cannot save you from a buyout, it does save you from being waived. Players 26 and older receive two-thirds of their remaining salary; under 26 get one-third, spread over twice the remaining term of the contract. Signing bonuses must be paid in full, buyouts don’t affect them.
24. Right before the playoffs, I spent a night in the NHL’s newly renovated Toronto Situation Room. Not the first time, did it years ago, but wanted to see the new setup and remind myself of the workflow. It was the night of the controversial Chicago/Montreal shootout with the initially undetected Frank Nazar goal.
I’ve thought a lot about it since and what’s stuck with me most was the pressure on everyone involved. Think of all the people demanding answers — fast — how much is on the line. That was an enormous game for the Canadiens and Columbus — hoping to make the post-season. Millions of dollars are at stake; player, coach and executive jobs on the line. Cellphones are buzzing, landlines are ringing, the nervous energy is thick. You’ve got to figure out what happened, speak to everyone involved. The Canadiens are pissed. The Blue Jackets are sweating. Other teams want to know, “What if this happens in one of our games?” Media is calling, as are league executives higher up the food chain.
The spotter in the Situation Room who immediately (and correctly) called Nazar’s attempt a goal, feels the enormity of the moment, worried about mistakes, even though his process was excellent. Now imagine that as we get deeper in the playoffs and things become even more important/intense. Can you keep calm? Can you find your way through the fog? Who makes excuses? Who doesn’t?
The playoffs have told us a few things: the NHL does not want to take away goals. Teams went 0-4 on goaltender interference challenges, so you’d better have a great reason to ask for one. Also: the NHL wants its on-ice officials’ opinion to matter. What they say they saw on the ice carries weight, and, in my experience, more than in previous years. I guarantee, though, anyone who spends a night in that room would one-billion per cent agree that we can make the game faster.
Here’s a photo:
That’s one column on a massive monitor wall at the front of the room. Both of those screens were dedicated to one game. During a game, the top monitor stays on the play while the bottom can review replays — while live action continues. You know what I heard a lot of that night? “Clean entry,” or “that’s onside,” or “this one will be close.” Meaning: in a lot of these cases, the replay room knows well before a goal is scored whether the play is onside or not onside or close. While a coaching staff is deciding whether or not to review anything, the video room is way ahead looking at all available angles.
As I’m sitting there, I’m wondering: is it the best process to wait for a coach to ponder a challenge, have the officials ponder review on a smaller iPad, and then decide? No, it isn’t. Commissioner Gary Bettman hates delays, and these are preventable.
I know who’s going to hate reading this: the officials. They will see it as an erosion of their role. I get it, I do. One change that could help right now: if a team is even thinking about a challenge, get a referee or a linesman on headset to the Situation Room before the coach decides, so the process starts early. That allows them to give their opinion without people needlessly waiting. We’d have fewer reviews. Make life easier (and faster) for everyone. There’s so much on the line in these games. The league has spent a ton of money to provide itself with the best possible technology, it should be used to maximum effect.
25. The Oilers were surprised to hear the investigation into Evander Kane’s LTIR usage continues. The NHL indicated to Edmonton there would be nothing during the playoffs to avoid distraction, but could resume once their season ended. At issue is the knee procedure Kane had in early January that paused his rehab from an earlier surgery to repair his groin/hip issues.
Would Kane have been able to play in the regular season if he hadn’t gone this route? That is why the NHL took the microscope to this case. This is going to be dealt with in the new CBA, and I don’t like the idea that only Edmonton gets punished for something so widely exploited. But it’s not my opinion that matters.
26. On Friday morning’s podcast, I suggested the likely solution for playoff LTIR is you can’t dress a playoff lineup above the cap number. Your overall roster can be whatever, but the game lineup has to be under the ceiling. A couple of people — who are much smarter than I am — reached out to say that this year provided hints to another option: Kane didn’t play Game 1 of the playoffs, while Tyler Seguin returned for the final game of the regular season after missing four-and-a-half months. There is at least one executive who suggested that if you can’t play Game 82, you should be forced to miss time in the playoffs. We will see which option is chosen.
27. With more time to look into it, here’s my read on state taxes: in the 2010s, the dominant teams were Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh. Those aren’t no-tax states, with California among the highest and Pennsylvania not far off. This is a different decade: led by Florida, Tampa Bay and Vegas — with Dallas consistently there. I think this new CBA will be four or five years. If things stay the same, we could see movement to address it. But there wasn’t desire to change something that has only been at its apex for half a decade.
28. Other possibilities in the new CBA: Both sides are mulling over the idea of one year fewer on contract length maximums (from eight years to seven on your own player, and seven to six when you sign from another team). There’s a discussion about teams being able to carry a “permanent personal EBUG,” so you always have a third goalie you are able to practice with or use in an emergency, even on the road. This wouldn’t be an AHL goalie, but more of an actual EBUG style. I’m curious to see how it looks if it happens.
I think draft rights will be standardized across the board and one CHL team said they’ve been warned there’s been discussion about certain prospects being eligible to go to the AHL sooner than currently allowed — which makes sense considering the NCAA is an option now, too. We’ll see if anything’s voted on at the Board of Governors next week in Los Angeles.
29. One NHL advanced stats guru said his team’s data indicated McDavid should have finished with 20 goals in the playoffs. He ended up with seven.
30. These playoffs set a new record for most third-period goals, 198. The previous high was 196, in 1988.
31. Regular readers of this blog know I keep a Nov. 1 stat. Updated number: in the salary cap era, only 10 of 72 teams four or more points out of the playoffs after games on that date recovered to make it. Chicago and Nashville missed this year. A lot of people talk American Thanksgiving, but your season can be over weeks before that.
32. We’ve got three major TV days remaining. Two are the draft and one is free agency. Not sure if I’ll be doing a full blog the rest of this year, so I wanted to take this moment to thank our production staff, technical staff and the digital-side editors (especially Rory Boylen, forced to waste so much time chasing after me). The people behind the scenes are always saving my space-cadet self. Can’t thank all of you enough.
