32 Thoughts: McDavid giving Oilers every chance to win Stanley Cup

• What McDavid’s contract means for everyone else
• Where Lane Hutson‘s extension talks are at
• Which non-playoff teams from 2024-25 might jump in this season?

Let’s be honest: the moment Connor McDavid created the slightest doubt he may not stay in Edmonton, an extension at any length or dollar value became a massive victory for the Oilers and their fans. 

According to several sources, McDavid’s hesitation eroded over the past week. He indicated he would play last Friday night in Vancouver, then finalize a decision over the weekend. There was a quiet (hopeful?) confidence he would sign, but, as late as Sunday night, he wanted one more sleep on it.

It was around 9 am Edmonton time Monday that the Oilers were delivered the great news. Even they were stunned at the $12.5M salary. This wasn’t a negotiation. They were going to do what he wished. But I’d bet this month’s mortgage their lowest Excel mock wasn’t below $14M. 

“Crosby-esque,” a few people called it. (Others joked that owner Daryl Katz set up a tree-planting endorsement.)

Maybe we should have seen it coming. Even though McDavid would not be criticized for any amount he could be paid under current NHL rules, he knew he couldn’t demand a consistent contender while hampering the Oilers’ flexibility. Before McDavid signed his current eight-year, $100M contract, the original AAV was $13.3M. When that got out, McDavid adjusted it downward. Several people in his circle argued to keep it where it was. But he felt cutting $833,000 would really help the Oilers win. When he makes up his mind, good luck changing it. 

Last year, one player said there was a possibility McDavid would take less than Leon Draisaitl on his next contract. I should have listened. As an executive said Monday, “McDavid doesn’t think, ‘Oh, I have to make $2M more than Draisaitl. He sees (Draisaitl) as equally important to their success.’”

There was every reason to believe his loyalty to Draisaitl, Mattias Ekholm, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse, etc. would bind him to Northern Alberta in the short term. He’s said several times he still sees this group as a legit Stanley Cup contender. One of the arguments to wait was that if he saw promise from the Isaac Howards and Matthew Savoies, maybe he’d want to sign for a longer term.

But this is a better outcome. Don’t let it hang over your season.

McDavid did send one critical message: Don’t take my commitment for granted. Every year, the Oilers must push in their chips and go all-in. The good news for Edmonton is they’ve got three more shots at this, led by a possessed captain with an even greater desire to win thanks to the the taste of one delicious triumph (Canada’s 4 Nations conquering) and two extremely bitter Stanley Cup defeats.

I don’t believe he thinks about legacy as much as victory. But I do think he notices that, in this century, seven first overall picks — Sidney Crosby, Aaron Ekblad, Marc-Andre Fleury, Patrick Kane, Nathan MacKinnon, Alexander Ovechkin and Steven Stamkos — won the Stanley Cup with the team that drafted them. There’s something very special about this accomplishment. 

By the end of this contract, it’ll be 13 years in Edmonton. As another executive said, “No matter what happens, even the most hardcore Oiler fan can’t argue McDavid didn’t give them every chance to win.”

32 THOUGHTS

1. McDavid wasn’t the only player the Oilers wished to lock down before the puck dropped. Jake Walman was another priority, so they intensified discussions with agent Wade Arnott to close a seven-year, $49M extension for a player they traded a first-rounder to get. (GM Stan Bowman believes those high picks should only be moved for someone with term or legitimately can be kept.) Next up could be Ekholm, who desires to stay. I’m getting mixed messages on whether it will be a short-term deal or something modelled on Chris Tanev to spread out the cap hit. 

2. From a Western Conference executive: “I like that McDavid took less, but I don’t like that it will allow Edmonton to be better.”

3. So, what does this mean for everyone else? In six days, we saw the biggest contract in NHL history (Kirill Kaprizov) followed by the biggest team-friendly contract in NHL history (McDavid). “Honestly,” said one GM, ‘We’re in a crazy spiral. Things are changing so quickly.”

There is no doubt teams will push McDavid’s message on their own players (“See what he did?”), with the response being either “Can’t argue with that,” or “That’s a unique situation and we don’t accept it as a comparable.”

Now that Kaprizov and McDavid are done, all eyes are on Cale Maker as the next potential nuclear explosion. Colorado’s been preparing for it, and may just hand him a blank cheque. Quinn Hughes is going to be carrying a pretty heavy hammer, too. One thing that is very clear: we are going to see more eight-figure players than ever (Kyle Connor, Adrian Kempe, Martin Necas, Alex Tuch en route) and we are going to see more of them younger than ever. Connor Bedard will be there by next summer at the latest. Macklin Celebrini’s going to be a big one. Logan Cooley is pushing. We are also going to see GMs losing sleep about the effect on their dressing rooms; how players who signed during the COVID-era flattened cap react to this boom.

One of the Inside Hockey pieces I never forgot from my CBC days was Derek Roy and Jason Pominville admitting how Christian Ehrhoff and Ville Leino’s big free-agent deals sent a stink-bomb through Buffalo.  

4. Fun bet: No player making more than $10M per season has won the Stanley Cup. Who will be first?

5. I’m not sure all of this has had a huge effect on Jack Eichel’s future in Vegas. Again, this is a happy marriage, so I’m on the side of it getting done, and I’d be surprised if it didn’t at some point. Both sides were working hard at it. Eichel has a vision of his worth that is still not at the Golden Knights’ sweet spot — yet. Even after signing Mitch Marner, they were committed to making their number-one centre their highest-paid player, but it’s believed they wanted the two of them at $25M combined. (Marner is at $12M.). We will see where things land. 

6. Vegas declared Alex Pietrangelo out for the regular season and playoffs (which must happen with NHLPA approval). He cannot return this season, and the Golden Knights get full cap relief.

7. With that knowledge allowing them to set up their early-season cap situation, I’d also expect the Golden Knights to officially sign Alexander Holtz before they play their first game. 

8. Meanwhile, the same people who, last season, correctly predicted the cap taking a major hop are already saying the 2026-27 ceiling, currently at $104M, might actually end up around $107M.

9. As it stands, free-agency in the summer of 2028 includes Auston Matthews, McDavid and Zach Werenski.

10. I believe Lane Hutson wanted to sign before the season. I believe that after several false starts, things progressed to a point where a deal was possible. There was signing-bonus structure. According to several sources, the Canadiens were slightly below 8 x $9M, including some deferral for a slight break on the cap hit. As several Montreal reporters have said/written, the organization pitched Hutson’s representatives on a Canadian RCA, which many players use to soften this country’s tax burden. Hutson’s representatives were above the $72M (not ridiculously), but disagreed philosophically on deferral and the RCA. So, we’re at a stalemate until everyone cools down, because there’s a lot of disappointment this didn’t close. It hasn’t changed that the Canadiens like Hutson and he wants to be there.

11. Newly-signed Evan Bouchard on Carolina’s offer-sheet threat that got his four-year, $42M extension done before July 1: “I didn’t know a lot about it. I’m glad it worked out (here).” It’s believed the Hurricanes put together a one-year deal at a number higher than McDavid just signed for, then figure out an extension. They turned their attention to K’Andre Miller, and worked out a trade with the Rangers.

12. Not sure we’re going to see much trade action too early, but Philadelphia is definitely checking what’s out there on defence.

13. Other things to watch once the phones start to buzz: Vancouver continuing its search for a centre; Toronto a top-six forward; Carolina always lurking.

14. Informal poll of who might surprise everyone with a move: Ottawa. Nothing specific, but definitely a desire to take a big step this season.

15. One free-agent situation that’s been pretty quiet for such an important player: Adam Lowry, who is injured to start the season. I don’t sense any concern, a bit on the backburner while the Jets try to close Kyle Connor.

16. If Andrei Vasilevskiy gets through this week as expected, don’t be shocked if Pheonix Copley is back on waivers or returned directly to Los Angeles. 

17. I was surprised Florida didn’t get fined for last week’s two-game exhibition shenanigans with Tampa Bay. I like a tough, mean game, but it’s ridiculous to see that in preseason and neither side was innocent. The NHL strongly felt that the Lightning’s Saturday roster was designed to inflict damage by non-NHL players, and hit them in the wallets as punishment. Tampa, which used to bully Florida, but now gets it in return, probably considers the fines an investment. Under the new CBA, there will be fewer exhibition games (thank God) and we’re probably headed for zero tolerance in them, too.

18. One thing I asked as that game deteriorated: Could the referees have ended it after the second period? Said, “This is a joke, let’s send everyone home?” The answer, apparently is no. The fans bought tickets for a full game and you can’t arbitrarily end their night ealry. During a hilarious post-game interview with Katie Engleson, Florida’s Evan Rodrigues apologized for keeping everyone in the building so long.

19. One executive reached out to say he thought the Lightning had an obligation to keep Scott Sabourin on their roster for his entire suspension. The rationale: the AHL does not need to enforce the ruling. If he gets sent to Syracuse, the clock does not start ticking on his NHL suspension, all but ending any opportunity for a recall. Clearly, Sabourin was there for a reason, so Tampa should make sure his ledger is clear.

20. There is an episode of Colby’s Couch this season with both Victor Hedman and Sam Reinhart. They weren’t crazy about doing it together, but to their credit, they did it. I’m not betting on a sequel in 2026. 

21. One point of emphasis this season is holding coaches to tighter timelines while deciding whether or not to ask for a replay review. Thirty seconds, give us an answer.

22. After claiming Colten Ellis on waivers, Buffalo has him, Alexandar Georgiev, Alex Lyon, Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. That’s…a lot. It says they’re really unsure about Luukkonen’s health, aren’t comfortable with Georgiev and prefer Levi in the AHL. He didn’t play much in the exhibition games. 

23. Eastern team I’d pick to make the playoffs if I had any guts: Boston. Between a healthy Charlie McAvoy, a healthy Hampus Lindholm and a clear-headed Jeremy Swayman, they should be a much better defensive team. Just don’t know how much they’ll score.

24. Western team I’d pick to make the playoffs if I had any guts: Anaheim. Here’s my thing with the Ducks — they have a lot of talented young players, some of whom have a chance to be real modern-day studs. But they’re young and they’ve never done it for 82 games. It is freaking-hard to make the playoffs in this league. Are they good enough to push through this meat-grinder? The talent is definitely there. 

25. I never like to pick the same teams to make the playoffs from the previous year. Someone always gets worse, and someone who missed is always better. This year, though, I don’t see anyone who made the 2024-25 postseason as appreciably worse.

In the west, Winnipeg’s being hugely disrespected. Yes, they’ve got real early-season injury issues, but I don’t see them drowning because of it. They’ve still got their closer, the backbone — Connor Hellebuyck. Who is going to drop? Colorado? No. Dallas? No. Edmonton? Nope. Vegas? Not a chance. St. Louis? I like the Blues, they look sneaky good to me. Minnesota? I don’t see it. There’s some Los Angeles talk, but do they really seem worse or is it as simple as we just need to pick someone?

The only teams I don’t see making it are Chicago, San Jose and Seattle. Utah was a playoff pick of mine a year ago, and seem ready to burst through unless the Cooley stuff implodes on them. Vancouver will be better, and it’s quiet around them, which is the most important thing. I’m concerned about the 20-25 games Dustin Wolf won’t play in Calgary. I was surprised the Flames didn’t claim any of the available goalies on waivers Monday. Nashville will be better, I think everyone there was embarrassed by last year. They’re not that bad, although centre remains a question unless Brady Martin is ready to carry a major load right now. West is deeper than the east, for sure.

26. Eastern Conference: I don’t get this idea that the Panthers will have a hard time making the playoffs. Two major injuries, yes. But still a very strong team with a great goaltender. Not a chance. Tampa Bay? No. Washington? No. Carolina? No. I don’t believe Montreal or Ottawa will regress. Toronto? Joseph Woll’s absence and the uncertain timeline unfortunately affects one of their greatest strengths, but I still think they’re deep enough to navigate the major post-Marner adjustment — although there are always bumpy moments.

New Jersey? I’d like some more oomph there, but there is nothing there that overly concerns me. What I do see are three legit contenders to bump someone. You know my feelings on Boston, and I’dd add both Columbus and the Rangers. Pittsburgh is out, and I’m already concerned about the injuries in Buffalo. Philadelphia will be fun to watch, just not sure they are ready yet. Same for Detroit, very young. I’m very, very interested in the Islanders, but, like Toronto, goaltending tandem was a strength, and Semyon Varlamov’s loss will be felt. 

27. A few sources are adamant there was one team considering re-acquiring a draft pick it had traded to offer sheet Mason McTavish, right before the Ducks got him signed. Not Carolina, the obvious suspect.

28. The other story that will play out over time is: who was claiming they would offer Kaprizov $20M? Minnesota warned teams that if they ever got evidence, they would pursue punishment with the NHL. It’s moot now, Kaprizov is a Wild for life, but several sources agree that figure was thrown at him.

29. Completely out-of-nowhere crazy prediction: Mathew Barzal, 100 points.

30. Samantha Glantz, who works in Anaheim’s media relations department, formerly held the career softball home run record (23) at Oaks Christian School in Westlake Village, CA. It was broken by Maya Brady, Tom’s niece, in 2019. 

31. Mentioned this on one of our podcasts, but if you’re looking for an excellent read to remember the late Ken Dryden, The Game gets all the love, but Face Off at the Summit is, to me, superior. Dryden wrote a detailed diary during the historic 1972 Canada-USSR series. One year removed from shockingly preventing a Bobby Orr/Phil Esposito Boston Bruins Stanley Cup threepeat, Dryden struggles for the first time as a professional against the Soviets. He writes about the uncertainty he sees in his teammates’ eyes when they watch him in practice, how he feels he’s being pitied for making the most mundane saves, how his skate gets used as a doorstop and Red Berenson yells, “That’s the first thing you’ve stopped this week.”

Of course, he recovers to win the deciding Game 8, but it is a phenomenal trip through the mind of an elite competitor going through doubts on the biggest stage of his career. When I re-read it last month, I finished in less than a day.

32. Also wanted to mention Bobby Grier, the father of San Jose GM Mike Grier, who died Sept. 22 at age 82. Bobby Grier was a longtime NFL executive for New England, Houston and Miami. I tried to find the story, but when University of Western Ontario running back Tim Tindale was being scouted as a free agent around 1994, I cold-called teams to see if they would be interested. My call to the Patriots was sent to Grier, who actually agreed to talk to me. I was in my early 20s, he had no idea who I was, and I had no idea what I was doing. But we chatted for about 10 minutes, and he was great. He didn’t have to do it, had nothing to gain from it, but played along. It’s an awesome memory. All the best to the Grier family.

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