• Putting a bow on what happened, and what didn’t, at the trade deadline
• What to watch for at upcoming GM Meetings
• Are Houston, Atlanta serious suitors for NHL teams?
In the aftermath of the trade deadline, a question stuck with me — and I’m embarrassed to admit it’s one of Jeff Marek’s. Speaking to Arizona GM Bill Armstrong last Thursday, he asked if Ottawa offered the same deal that landed Jakob Chychrun last October, would the Coyotes have accepted?
“It’s hard to say,” Armstrong replied. “You don’t know where they’re going to finish. You have a better idea now, so it becomes more attractive…For us, to get a chance for a high pick, that’s huge for us.”
For many who followed the Chychrun saga, the return (a conditional first-round pick, a conditional second-round selection and another second) seemed light, especially since the GM himself indicated the Coyotes wanted, at minimum, two guaranteed firsts — or the equivalent. But Armstrong’s quote stuck with me. What’s better? The quality of one higher first-rounder or the quantity of two later firsts?
The biggest problem for Arizona will be that the Coyotes made Ottawa a better team via the trade. Aaron Riccio, co-founder of SportsCapital, a salary cap intelligence database, points out the Senators are in win-now mode, “so they are incentivized to minimize the present value traded to acquire Chychrun. But these same picks are enticing to Arizona with a longer time horizon and can afford to wait for the value of those picks to appreciate over time.”
By points percentage, the Senators stood 20th when they made the deal. Even though Ottawa crashed from its Detroit-beating, Chychrun-acquiring sugar high with a 5-0 loss to Chicago on Monday, it was up to 19th prior to Tuesday’s games. Finally a meaningful March; this young core will not coast through the end of the season.
As it stands, the Senators would not be able to snare one of the top two lottery spots, since rules only allow a team to move up 10 places. That’s critical, because there is ample evidence the NHL Draft value drops after the second pick. (Ottawa’s 2023 selection is top-five protected, although not letting Arizona have it means there’s no protection in 2024).
There are a lot of places you can look for data, but I asked Chace McCallum, a 24-year-old grad student at Wilfrid Laurier University, who wrote his thesis on NHL Draft Biases. You can find it pinned to his Twitter page (@CMhockey66). It’s not light reading, but it’s very interesting.
McCallum used Goals Above Replacement in the first seven years after being drafted for each player from each slot from 2007-14. (He only went to 2007 because that is as far back as advanced stats go.)
This chart illustrates his findings:
The first and second selections outshine the rest. To make sure, McCallum also tested via points, games played and points per game, “all finding that the output of the top two selections was, on average, much higher than the rest of the draft.” It should be noted his research does not include 2004 (Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin); 2005 (Sidney Crosby); 2015 (Connor McDavid) and 2016 (Auston Matthews) — which certainly wouldn’t hurt the hypothesis.
This indicates it will be challenging for Arizona to match Chychrun’s impact with these three picks — especially if Ottawa rises in the standings. Not impossible, but challenging. Arizona’s helped by the fact this is widely considered a deep draft, but McCallum makes the argument that even if you do replace the value of one player with three assets, “that can be a loss because you can only dress 20, so more concentrated value would be preferred, all else being equal.” And, Chychrun will be 25 later this month. His value could grow.
What determines success is different to different people. Shane Malloy, who wrote The Art of Scouting in 2011 and has spent the last 15 years researching this kind of thing, provided some games-played information.
For the 2006-2015 NHL Drafts, 83 per cent of the players selected between first and 22nd played at least 200 games. From 23-32, the number drops to 39 per cent. So, if games-played is your barometer, there is an argument that one higher selection is worth two later choices, yes.
But, as Malloy correctly points out, if you’ve got a bad operation with a bad process, it doesn’t matter where you’re picking. Armstrong takes pride in his drafting, he doesn’t lack confidence.
Go back to McCallum’s research. Outside the number one and two selections, the highest success rate from 2007-14 is at numbers seven (Jakub Voracek, Nazem Kadri, Jeff Skinner, Mark Scheifele, Matt Dumba and Darnell Nurse) and nine (Logan Couture, Josh Bailey, Mikael Granlund, Dougie Hamilton, Jacob Trouba, Bo Horvat and Nik Ehlers). Random? Mostly, but Winnipeg’s got three choices on that list and Minnesota two.
You can make it work if you know what you’re doing.
32 THOUGHTS
1. Another GM on the Senators: “There is no way, when they made this offer last week, they actually thought they were getting him. Nice coup.”
2. There were reports of Edmonton pivoting away from a Chychrun trade to Mattias Ekholm. Hard to completely pin down, but here’s my best guesstimate: The Oilers considered both players, but ultimately chose Ekholm because they considered him a better fit for two reasons — they felt his skillset better fit what they needed and, even though he’s older, his history is much healthier. He’s missed, what, 20 games in the last nine seasons?
GM Ken Holland’s always placed big emphasis on availability. You can’t prevent injuries, but, if he’s going to trade for someone, he desires reasonable belief the player can stay in the lineup. Ekholm’s underlying numbers in the past indicate he’s a master of going back, getting the puck and getting it out. Here’s an example:
I do think the Oilers and Coyotes haggled over the draft picks, but that’s not abnormal. Ultimately, they preferred Ekholm. And thank you to a Twitter buddy who pointed out that Ekholm was born May 24, 1990 — the day Edmonton last won the Stanley Cup.
3. We’ll get back to the NHL in a minute, but wanted to recognize 20-year-old Chase Coward of WHL Red Deer. Coward is scheduled to start for the Rebels Wednesday night against Lethbridge. Last summer, Coward, not drafted by an NHL team, was invited to the Canadian World Junior Team’s summer camp, and also to Buffalo’s development camp. However, he failed his physical due to hip injuries, although the Sabres kindly allowed him to stay.
In August, Rebels uberboss Brent Sutter announced Coward “underwent testing and discovered a congenital defect to his lower body. At this time Chase has decided he will not attend training camp or be a part of the Rebels roster to start the season, and we support him as he navigates through the process.” There was concern Coward’s hockey career was over at waaaaaaaaaay too young an age. As I write this, I’m not 100 per cent sure of the procedures he went through, but it was a gruelling process and recovery against big odds. Wishing Chase good luck as he returns to action.
4. Another comeback deserving more attention: San Jose’s Nikolai Knyzhov. The defenceman played his first NHL game in 663 days in Monday’s 3-2 win over the Jets, telling reporters, “I had a lot of emotions in warm-up.” I guess. Knyzhov went through two sports hernia surgeries, torn adductor muscles, a bone infection and a torn Achilles tendon suffered in offseason training. That’s a Masterton candidate.
5. Knew Minnesota’s disallowed overtime goal against Calgary was indeed offside when Dean Evason didn’t go insane on the Wild bench. Evason’s not subtle when annoyed about something. If it’s as simple as Spurgeon passed the puck and Anthony Beauvillier didn’t on this play, let’s make that clear. Would simplify things for everyone.
6. Jesper Bratt and the New Jersey Devils are engaged on extension talks. He’s restricted in July, one summer from unfettered free agency. A bit of a poker game right now, but there’s plenty of time.
7. Ah, Philadelphia. About 25 years ago, I went to a Packers-Lions game in Detroit. The Silverdome (where Detroit played then) was full of Green Bay fans as Brett Favre dismantled the Lions. A year later, I tried to buy tickets for the Vikings’ visit to Motown, but the Lions were so angry about the Packers’ fans takeover they created a rule where you had to buy tickets for at least four games. No more invasions! I thought of that last Wednesday as a legion of Rangers supporters erupted in Wells Fargo when Vladimir Tarasenko scored to beat the hometown Flyers in overtime.
I get it. No one wants to see thousands of fans celebrating a hated rival’s win in your building. It tastes like your grandmother’s worst liver dish. It’s not coming fast enough for Flyers’ fans, but there’s going to be change. The moment John Tortorella’s name appeared on that “this year was the first step in building the future of the Flyers” letter in February, it signalled where everything was going. The as-yet-undetermined part is how deep this rebuild will go, but there’s a chance it will be more significant than expected. One governor said this week that, early in the season, comp tickets for Philadelphia games were up 50 per cent over 2021-22. Nothing delivers a message louder than that.
8. Prior to the Chychrun deal, the Flyers were scouting AHL Belleville. Whatever was going on there is likely off the table, but it would have been interesting.
9. I don’t think there was much with Kevin Hayes and Carolina, but I do think there’s something with Columbus. Two of his biggest fans — Johnny Gaudreau and Rick Nash — are there.
10. A few sources wondered if any team that acquired Timo Meier would consider club-elected arbitration with him. As many of you know, Meier’s current contract ends in June, but he’s one season from unrestricted free agency. He requires a $10M qualifying offer to keep his rights for 2023-24, barring a contract extension. However, the Devils (or if another team trades for him after the season) can go the club-elected route, meaning Meier could get no less than 85 per cent of the $10M cash he’s earning this season.
After the deadline, I thought more about it. Colorado did this with Ryan O’Reilly in 2014, after he finished the two-year offer sheet contract originally signed with Calgary. The problem with this is it can really alienate a player. O’Reilly’s relationship with Colorado was already damaged, and he was traded to Buffalo in 2015. But there’s the recent case of Corbin Burnes. The 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner went to arbitration last month with the Milwaukee Brewers and it was nasty.
“There’s no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt from what [transpired]over the last couple of weeks,” Burnes told mlb.com‘s Adam McCalvy. “There’s really no way of getting around that. Obviously, we’re professionals, and we’re going to go out there and do our jobs. When some of the things that are said, for instance, put me at the forefront of why we didn’t make the postseason last year. That’s something that probably doesn’t need to be said.” Yikes. The Brewers backpedaled big-time, but it’s a cautionary tale for everyone.
11. The Oilers made a legit pitch for Meier. It was almost certainly going to be a rental, with all decisions about the future punted into the summer. Assuming Meier had a strong playoff with that high-octane roster, there’s definitely the possibility of flipping him to regain the assets lost in the initial deal. I don’t think Edmonton was the only team considering it, but I love the concept.
12. Vancouver hasn’t given up on moving out at least one big contract this summer. Apparently, Filip Hronek’s been on the Rutherford/Allvin radar a long time. I’m guessing Steve Yzerman remembered that. It’s a big price to pay and hands contract leverage to the player, but the Canucks really like him. With Hronek in Vancouver, Detroit’s right-side looks thin after Moritz Seider. Something the Red Wings will need to address.
13. Think the stalemate between Detroit and Tyler Bertuzzi was term. Two sides couldn’t bridge the gap, and Boston benefits. What a deadline for the Bruins.
14. Tampa Bay GM Julien BriseBois boldly backed his defence, and I’d expect nothing less. But I do think he looked pretty hard at other options. The Lightning dealt most of their draft capital in search of a third Stanley Cup in four seasons, and simply ran out of assets. It’s believed the Lightning asked about Radko Gudas; I’m not surprised he stayed a Panther instead of ending up across-state. Last weekend was a nightmare for Tampa, but write them off at your own peril.
15. I think Pittsburgh and Edmonton also had interest in Gudas. (The Oilers ultimately decided against it after Ekholm.) San Jose acquired unsigned defender Henry Thrun from Anaheim. He’s NCAA Harvard’s captain, and we’ll see if the Sharks sign him. There were rumours he’s on Tampa’s radar.
16. Ryan O’Reilly’s injury timeline is as good as Toronto could have hoped — four weeks. That’s right at the start of the playoffs. Word is O’Reilly’s already had a huge impact on the dressing room, just in terms of how the players interact and socialize with one another. The Maple Leafs were honest with Conor Timmins, letting him know the added defenders will hurt his ice time — but he’s very much in their plans. The more delicate balance will be with Timothy Liljegren, who returned to the lineup Tuesday after missing a pair of games.
17. Funny little tidbit about the three-way trade that sent Nick Bonino to Pittsburgh: he had to waive his no-trade to Montreal so the Canadiens could facilitate the extra retention.
18. I do think Los Angeles made an exploratory call to Nashville about Juuse Saros. The Predators look rejuvenated post-deadline — some youthful energy helps — and, surprisingly, have a path to the playoffs. Big challenge, but playoff chases are what everyone wants.
19. It didn’t go unnoticed that Columbus did right by Jonathan Quick. Don’t want to make a big deal of it, but it’s untrue that his inclusion in the Kings-Blue Jackets trade was reported before Quick was told. Los Angeles planned to inform him upon returning home from Winnipeg, but audibled when informed rumours of the deal were out there. Reaction was seismic among the players and their families. One said he understood why, from a hockey perspective, the Kings felt they had to make the move. But he didn’t understand why Quick wasn’t given more of a heads-up to prepare for the shock of leaving the only NHL home he wanted to know.
20. The Chychrun situation was an emotional ride for some of the Kings. When Arizona first sat out the defenceman on Feb. 11, there were plenty of rumours Los Angeles was to be the destination. GM Rob Blake informed Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke they wouldn’t be dealt, and constantly indicated no trade was as close as had been rumoured. For several days, some of the players who thought they might be involved were half-joking with each other when they arrived every day. “Still here?” “Yup, still here.” Not easy.
21. The Athletic’s Michael Russo confirmed what had been suspected: that Carolina made an inquiry to Calgary about Elias Lindholm. There’s almost zero chance the Flames would have considered it now — too soon and still coming to grips with this season. But they’ve got six interesting players with one year remaining on their current contracts, so the calendar dictates this will be a direction-defining summer. All of a sudden, they are four points back of Winnipeg.
22. Vladislav Namestnikov waived his no-trade to go to the Jets. I think he had other options, but was content to go there.
23. The NHL has a 10-member Executive Committee that meets before each full Board of Governors meeting, and now there’s going to be something similar for the general managers. The group will be Doug Armstrong, Ken Holland, Lou Lamoriello, David Poile, Don Waddell and Steve Yzerman. “Colie’s Angels.” They will get together Sunday, with the full GM meetings beginning on Monday in Florida.
24. As of Wednesday afternoon, hadn’t heard about agenda items for the meetings…but things that seem to be on people’s radar: the lengthy trade-related sabbaticals this season; decreasing the exhibition season (which could lead into a schedule conversation, but I’m not convinced Commissioner Bettman is crazy about 84 games); playoff points of officiating emphasis; how to make three-way trades less-complicated. No doubt there are things I’m forgetting or not yet aware of. I believe there is growing consternation about Arizona’s roster, but the GMs are not going to be able to solve that. That’s a governors’ issue, and we’ll see how they feel.
25. I like John Buccigross’s tweeting style. A couple of years ago, he tweeted a picture of Taylor Hall, another of Anders Bjork and one of Tupac Shakur. Not long after, Hall was dealt from Buffalo to Boston for Bjork and a second-round pick. So, when he tweeted about Atlanta and Houston, a lot of people were intrigued. The NHL is throwing cold water on any hysteria, but uninformed speculation is what I’m best at.
Let’s stress that these are my opinions, rather than a true indication of where any of this might be going. First of all, it doesn’t make any sense to rush into anything until we know Arizona’s future. If the Coyotes win the referendum (or end up in a remodelled Suns’ arena), there’s no need to “waste” a potential expansion spot on them. But if the Coyotes can’t get clarity, one of those cities is going to be their next home.
26. I’ve always believed the league likes the idea of Houston. Largest non-NHL market in North America, and there was a meeting with NBA Rockets representatives a few years ago. The word used to describe that meeting was “underwhelming,” with the Rockets not wanting to pay the going rate for an expansion franchise and seemingly more interested in an NHL team as an arena tenant than anything else.
This is where I wonder about Tim Leiweke, CEO of Oak View Group. Seattle’s NHL future was uncertain until he became the driving force behind Climate Pledge Arena, and the Kraken are a huge success. There are some big-swingers who think he could solve an NHL arena problem in Houston. But that’s conjecture as opposed to fact at this time.
The reports out of Atlanta indicate the suburb of Alpharetta would be home as opposed to downtown, but I’d have to be convinced as to why the region would deserve a third chance. Not mentioned is Kansas City, but I wouldn’t be so quick to discount it. An arena owned by AEG — another powerful NHL force — and if we’ve learned anything, it’s that the league can be successful in cities where there is no major winter competitor (Nashville, Seattle, Vegas). Just make Pat Mahomes part of the ownership group.
27. All of this discounts Quebec City and Toronto. Excluding them from this conversation has to make Nordiques fans sick, and the NHL has, at times, liked the idea of a Los Angeles-like setup at Scotiabank Arena.
28. Boston hit its “over” — 96.5 points — on February 27. That’s ridiculous.
29. Loved, loved Mikko Rantanen’s “ring” gesture while serving a penalty as Colorado trailed Dallas 5-1. It was hilarious. No need to back away or apologize for it. That kind of personality and bravado is perfect.
30. I’m betting that, after Pittsburgh this year, no team ever again has its Fathers’ Trip during trade deadline week.
31. Credit stat-man extraordinaire Stan Nieradka for this one: which player traded on deadline day since 1980 has the most points the rest of the season? It’s Peter Mueller, with 20 (nine goals) for Colorado after being traded by Phoenix in 2009-10. Robert Reichel (1997, Islanders) and Brian Campbell (2008, San Jose) were one behind. Never would have guessed that.
32. Sarah Nurse’s All-Star Weekend skates were inscribed with Madam CJ Walker’s phenomenal quote: “Don’t sit down and wait for opportunities to come. Get up and make them happen.” Excellent advice to finish the blog.
