It’s been more than 40 years since the most storied franchises in hockey met in the post-season.
That’s way too long.
On Thursday night the streak ends as the Montreal Canadiens are in Toronto to face the Maple Leafs. The Leafs enter this series as heavy favourites, however, there is a path to victory and reason for optimism if you are a Canadiens fan.
With that in mind let’s take a look at the three biggest keys heading into this series.
Experience over Skill?
The Montreal Canadiens made a conscious decision to prioritize experience over youth heading into Game 1 of this series. In are Eric Staal, Corey Perry, and Jon Merrill. Out are Cole Caufield, Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Alexander Romanov. Dominique Ducharme’s decision to dress a veteran group has sparked plenty of controversy in Montreal.
Staal has one goal in his past 20 games, Perry has none and Merrill has a minus-11 rating in 13 games with Montreal. Caufield has scored at every level despite the many naysayers who insist his size will limit him in some way. Thirty goals in 31 games as a Hobby Baker winner at Wisconsin this season. Three goals in two games with Laval in the American League. Four goals in 10 games with the Canadiens — only Nick Suzuki scored more for Montreal since Caufield entered the line-up.
Kotkaniemi has had his struggles, but he’s also been shifted around the lineup from centre to wing on different lines. Kotkaniemi has played at least 40 minutes on six different line combinations this season and hasn’t played more than 90 minutes on any single line. Romanov has also struggled down the stretch, but he’s played mainly with Merrill since the trade deadline so it’s tough to say where the problem lies there.
Shea Weber and Brendan Gallagher also draw into the lineup for Montreal.
The Canadiens are opting for experience and size over inexperience and skill. Time will tell if this is the right approach, but one thing is for sure, their opponent has skill up and down its lineup.
The Maple Leafs welcome Zach Hyman back into the lineup for Game 1. Hyman is expected to line up in his familiar spot alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. While this line has been effective against the Canadiens, it wasn’t overly dominant. Expect Montreal to match its top line, centred by Phillip Danault, against Matthews as much as possible. In this head-to-head match-up this season, the Canadiens outshot the Maple Leafs, however the Matthews line doubled Danault’s line in shot quality and outscored it 3-2.
The Canadiens are one of the most physical teams in the NHL. They will look to use their size at every turn in an attempt to wear down the Maple Leafs. Toronto’s response will likely be catch me if you can. These are two teams that play different styles of hockey. When it comes to generating offence, the Canadiens will shoot from anywhere, while the Maple Leafs prefer to use their abundance of skill to hang on to pucks until they get a shot from a dangerous scoring area on the ice. This brings us to key No. 2.
Maple Leafs Possession Game vs. Canadiens Counter-Punch
The Canadiens have a winning lottery number. It’s seven. That’s the number of scoring chances off the rush the Canadiens averaged per game this season. When the Canadiens hit this number, their record was 17-6-9. When they were held to six rush chances or fewer, 7-15-2. Montreal out-chanced Toronto off the rush in all three of its wins against them this season.
It’s not so much that there’s any magic in the number itself, but it’s an indicator of how well Montreal is using its greatest strength — team speed. The Canadiens are at their best when they are pushing the pace of the game through the neutral zone. The Maple Leafs dominated the season series in terms of offensive zone puck possession and created far more scoring chances by cycling the puck in the offensive zone. However, the Canadiens had a slight edge generating chances off the rush.
There is no getting around the fact that Montreal is going to spend a lot of time defending in its zone this series. What it needs to do is use its speed to counter-attack when turnovers occur. The Canadiens had success doing this at times against the possession-focused Maple Leafs.
Tyler Toffoli and Josh Anderson led the Canadiens with five rush goals apiece this season and both are a real threat in odd-man rush situations. If Toronto can successfully play keep-away in the offensive zone and cycle successfully against Montreal, it will likely be a short series, though it will feel long for the Canadiens.
However, if the Canadiens can successfully defend and counter-punch in these situations they will improve their odds of pulling off an upset.
Goaltending
In any series, goaltending can make or break a team’s fortunes. What makes the goaltending matchup in this series so interesting is the amount of unknown that exists. For Toronto, Jack Campbell’s performance has been stellar this season. Campbell won 17 of his 22 starts and posted a .921 save percentage. His traditional stats are a result of his terrific play, but also great defensive play in front of him.
The Maple Leafs’ expected goals-against average — a reflection of team defence — in Campbell’s starts was 2.37, 11th-lowest among goalies with at least 1,000 minutes played. On top of that, Campbell saved the Maple Leafs an average of 0.22 goals above expected per game. The result was a 2.15 goals-against average, which ranked sixth overall.
The long and short of it, Campbell and the Maple Leafs’ defence both performed well above average this season. The big unknown is that he has zero games of NHL playoff experience. There’s no reason to expect a dip in Campbell’s play, but there is also no way of knowing how he will perform in the post-season until the puck drops. If Campbell falters, Frederik Andersen, who has played one NHL game in the past two months, is next up. Andersen posted the worst save percentage of his career last season and followed it up with an even worse .895 save percentage in 2021 — the first time he’s finished a season below .900 in his career.
As for the Canadiens, the water is even murkier in goal. Carey Price last played an NHL game one month ago and finished the season with a .901 save percentage in 25 games. Price posted a negative-0.34 goals saved above expected per game this season, costing his team an average of approximately one goal every three games, which ranked 39th among 51 qualified goalies.
That said, Price seems to play his best when the most is on the line. Price is also rested, as he was entering the playoff bubble last season. In that bubble, Price posted the best playoff save percentage of his career at .936. The Canadiens will be counting on this version of Price to show up when the puck drops Thursday night. Anything less and Montreal will have a tough time against a more skilled Maple Leafs team.
Whether you are a Leafs fan or a Habs fan one thing is for sure — it will be great to see these sweaters on the same ice surface in the playoffs for the first time in a long time.
