Some of the greatest players on a path to a summer 2023 bidding war opted for security instead. Franchise forwards Jonathan Huberdeau, J.T. Miller, and Nathan MacKinnon — the NHL’s new AAV champ — all have new long-term contracts. Same goes for defencemen MacKenzie Weegar in Calgary and Travis Sanheim in Philadelphia. (And they did so prior to this week’s Board of Governors meeting news that the 2023-24 salary cap could spike by $4 million or more.)
Yet despite these long-term extensions for big names, several mysteries surround elite talents embarking on contract years.
Not unlike 2022’s UFA class, free-agent forwards should run the rumour mill again in 2023, while a few top-four defencemen and goaltenders in their prime round out the group.
Behold, the latest buzz surrounding the best dozen UFAs-in-waiting — ranked.
1. David Pastrnak
Age on July 1: 27
Position: Right wing
2022-23 salary cap hit: $6.67 million
The latest: Boston Bruins president Cam Neely has a pitch to lob at Pastrnak — who, in our opinion, will be the most coveted free agent next summer, if he gets that far.
“We’re here to show everybody that we’re not stripping this thing down. We’re going to continue to build on it,” Neely told reporters in October, mentioning Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, Brad Marchand, Taylor Hall, Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark as pieces the sniper could help move forward.
None of those core players are centres, however, and Boston icons Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci won’t be active when Pastrnak’s next contract goes deep.
“Obviously, a shot-first winger certainly wants to know who his centerman is going to be. We’ve made it very clear to David that we’re very aware of that particular position moving forward, and we’re going to do everything we possibly can to fill that void when that happens,” Neely acknowledged.
Communication between Pastrnak and GM Don Sweeney has been open, and both sides are willing to talk about a juicy raise throughout the season.
“And when he feels comfortable, hopefully we finalize a deal. There isn’t any timeline on that, but we’re going to have to communicate almost every day, to tell you the honest truth, and see if we can find the finish line,” Sweeney said.
An anonymous source told 98.5 The Sports Hub that Boston is willing to offer the productive winger the richest contract in club history and have his AAV exceed McAvoy’s $9.5 million.
Something along the lines of Jonathan Huberdeau’s eight-year, $84-million ($10.5 million cap hit) deal in Calgary is what Pastrnak’s agent, J.P. Barry, could be looking at, though.
“Yeah, well, I know they’re talking every day, so obviously they’re trying to get something done, you know?” Pastrnak said. “It’s good that they are in touch. So, I’m confident that it will get done here.”
Pastrnak continues to wow on the ice, making the most of what’s left on his team-friendly deal.
“David is a special player,” Bruins CEO Charlie Jacobs said. “We try not to comment about ongoing negotiations, but David is obviously a special player. Ownership is aware that we need to be aggressive in trying to re-up David to a new contract.”
2. Patrick Kane
Age on July 1: 34
Position: Right wing
2022-23 salary cap hit: $10.5 million
The latest: Kane’s situation is arguably the most fascinating of any individual player this season. Great player, lousy team.
Absolutely, fan bases in Toronto, New York, Buffalo and pretty much everywhere else should dream of a restless and determined no-brainer Hall of Famer taking his three rings and running off to join another circus.
As desperate as Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson is to rip his roster to the studs and give himself the best odds of drafting Connor Bedard, Kane holds a complete no-move clause in his contract’s final season and thus all the leverage. (Same goes for Jonathan Toews.)
If you’re Kane, you slow-play this thing out. See which teams look like legit Cup contenders after the all-star break. Then tell Davidson you’ll only accept a deal to Team X. That way, you control your own fate, the way Taylor Hall targeted Boston out of Buffalo or Claude Giroux aimed for Florida out of Philadelphia.
“It’s a very similar approach that we had with Claude,” Kane’s agent, Pat Brisson, told Pierre LeBrun in mid-October. “We’ll see how things go in Chicago. We’ll see how Patrick feels. We’ll probably explore things at the appropriate time later this season.
“I don’t want to put too much of a timeline on it. But it’s clear the Hawks won’t push him to make a decision one way or another.”
When trade deadline rolls around, Chicago will have already paid the bulk of Kane’s salary. Davidson could offer to retain 50 per cent of his star’s prorated salary to ease the cap hit for the contending team and max out the Blackhawks’ return.
Kane himself has been reluctant to openly ponder the possibility of playing for a second NHL franchise.
“It’s not really something I’ve thought of or anything I’m thinking about right now…. It’s just a lot of noise right now,” he told reporters. “Everyone (in Chicago) has a positive outlook on the year, and we want to prove a lot of people wrong.
“I have a year left on my contract, and I’m here. There haven’t been a lot of discussions about (trades).”
3. Dylan Larkin
Age on July 1: 26
Position: Centre
2022-23 salary cap hit: $6.1 million
The latest: The Detroit Red Wings captain switched agencies in the lead-up to what should be the most critical contract negotiation of his career.
Upon the conclusion of 2021-22, the centreman departed KO Sports and joined CAA, where he’s represented by Matt Williams and heavy hitter Pat Brisson.
Initial extension talks with GM Steve Yzerman began prior to training camp, and both sides are hopeful to get this done.
“We’re having conversations. A lot of negotiating, going back and forth. Ultimately, in my heart, it’s where I want to be,” Larkin told 32 Thoughts: The Podcast in September. “I don’t really see myself playing for another team. It’s moving along. I can’t really tell you when or how [the deal gets resolved], but that’s where I want to be.”
Larkin’s no-trade clause kicks in this season, giving him some measure of control as he skates toward his payday and first taste of free agency.
The No. 1 pivot is Yzerman’s top priority among a group of 10 impending unrestricted free agents that includes Tyler Bertuzzi, Adam Erne, Olli Maatta, and Alex Nedeljkovic.
So, is Larkin confident that an extension will be coming?
“I’m hoping,” he replied.
4. Ryan O’Reilly
Age on July 1: 32
Position: Centre
2022-23 salary cap hit: $7.5 million
The latest: O’Reilly and GM Doug Armstrong have agreed to set extension talks aside until January, reports insider Pierre LeBrun, but the situation between the St. Louis Blues and its 2019 Conn Smythe winner remains amicable.
“We’ve kind of started some dialogue. There’s just no real rush. We’ve got a long time to figure that out, and I’m not worried. I don’t think Doug is worried either. It’ll work itself out as it goes,” O’Reilly told reporters.
As one of the game’s premier two-way centres, the Selke-winning O’Reilly could point to Nazem Kadri’s seven-year, $49-million deal with the Calgary Flames as a comparable.
O’Reilly maintains that he’d like to remain in St. Louis and he’s content to wait and let the season play out.
Neither side is particularly urgent here, and management prioritized locking up the next wave of Blues forwards (Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas) over the veterans during the off-season.
Something to keep in mind: Whether it’s Alex Pietrangelo or David Backes, Armstrong has shown he has the stomach to walk away from a captain if his asking price gets too high.
“O’Reilly, Tarasenko, Barbashev, Mikkola — these guys are all gonna be UFAs,” Armstrong said. “Right now, we’re just gonna let the season play itself out, have these guys play.”
5. Bo Horvat
Age on July 1: 28
Position: Centre
2022-23 salary cap hit: $5.5 million
The latest: Anyone else surprised that J.T. Miller signed and was locked up before puck drop while the Vancouver Canucks’ other pending UFA core forward skates around in uncertainty?
President Jim Rutherford says Miller’s $56-million extension will not impact the club’s desire to sign its captain, Horvat, who is two years younger.
Yet early contract talks have cooled over a financial gap. While Vancouver would like Horvat’s AAV to begin with a six, agent Pat Morris is said to be aiming for something in the range of two-way pivot Sean Couturier’s price in Philadelphia, $7.75 million.
There is still plenty of time to bridge the gap and a willingness on both sides to find that common ground.
“I want to be a Vancouver Canuck,” Horvat told reporters during training camp. “I want to stay here, and I love our group. My wife and I love the city. If I wanted to play for one team for my whole career, it would be the Vancouver Canucks. Obviously, it’s a long process, and we’ll see where it goes.
“I can’t let that kind of stuff bother me. I can’t always have it hanging over my head. For me, I have to put my head down and be the best leader I can. I’m a Vancouver Canuck right now. I’m going to be a Vancouver Canuck for this full year, and… I’m going to try to do whatever I can to help this team win. And that’s what my main focus is right now.”
The topic of Horvat’s contract will not go away quietly.
“I think both sides have tried, but disagreement happens,” Morris said during a mid-October appearance on Donnie and Dhali. “The best agreement always is the one they don’t like and the one we don’t like. That creates an agreement. But we haven’t found that level yet.
“It’s not every single player that gets an extension. If there’s a disagreement, it doesn’t happen. If there’s not a meeting of the minds or a consensus, you can’t get something done. You’re always hopeful when you start out. Vancouver always told me they like Bo Horvat a lot and they have him under contract for this year, but not beyond unfortunately.”
6. Vladimir Tarasenko
Age on July 1: 31
Position: Right wing
2022-23 salary cap hit: $7.5 million
The latest: Tarasenko proved in 2021-22 that he can put personal wishes (i.e., to be traded) aside and still deliver on the ice.
The Russian sniper enjoyed a return-to-form campaign in which he ripped 34 goals and hung a career-best 82 points in 75 games — both team highs. (Anyone else wonder why the Seattle Kraken didn’t swipe Tarasenko for free in the expansion draft?)
In July, reports surfaced that Tarasenko had not rescinded his year-old trade demand.
So, where does that leave Armstrong, who has built a roster that can compete today while simultaneously investing in the next wave of Blues scorers?
The most logical bet seems like Armstrong will keep Tarasenko as an “own rental” because, hey, he needs the goals now and not many partners will have the cap space to take on such a ticket.
7. Tyler Bertuzzi
Age on July 1: 28
Position: Left wing / Right wing
2022-23 salary cap hit: $4.75 million
The latest: Bertuzzi, an impactful power forward, has been subjected to trade rumours from time to time, but publicly Yzerman has stated that, like Larkin, he’d like his top-liner to remain in the fold long-term.
“My hope is sometime between now and 18 months from now to sign them to extensions,” Yzerman said once 2022’s trade deadline passed.
“They’re good players, they’re good people, they like playing here, and they’ve played very well for us. So, I certainly hope to do that, and that’s what we’ll try to do.”
Bertuzzi is wrapping up a two-year bridge pact and erupted for career-bests in goals (30) and points (62) last season. He’s had health issues in the past and suffered an upper-body injury blocking a shot on Oct. 16 that will keep him out four to six weeks.
The player himself is on record saying he wants to commit to Motown: “I want to be a Red Wing.”
No doubt his agent, Todd Reynolds, will be gunning for the type of payday hard-on-the-puck forwards like Zach Hyman and Andrew Copp found on the open market. (How does six times six sound?)
Where Yzerman’s Red Wings, finally signalling a turn of the corner, sit come trade deadline could expedite a decision here. Yzerman has a track record of drawing a maximum price for pending UFAs and not exceeding it.
8. John Klingberg
Age on July 1: 30
Position: Defence
2022-23 salary cap hit: $7 million
The latest: When one of those long-term, generational-wealth-establishing offers never emerged for Klingberg as the top UFA D-man of 2022, he switched agents and bet on himself.
Inking a one-year pact with the rebuilding Anaheim Ducks sets up Klingberg for a) plenty of ice time and power-play cookies and b) a likely trip to the deadline rental market, where his acquiring team could spike the trade with the type of multi-year extension he’s been targeting.
So far, the Orange County reviews of the NHL’s best offensive defenceman without income security have been glowing.
“He’s been unbelievable,” Trevor Zegras raved. “The talent he has is incredible. It shows with how open the flankers are. He opens everything up for us with his skating ability.”
9. Matt Dumba
Age on July 1: 28
Position: Defence
2022-23 salary cap hit: $6 million
The latest: Boy, time flies.
It feels like yesterday that the cap-crunched Minnesota Wild and Dumba agreed to a five-year, $30-million extension.
Now Dumba, a right shot in his prime, is skating toward the open market. No stranger to trade rumours, Dumba surely understands that GM Bill Guerin’s cap space is extremely limited in 2023-24, when Ryan Suter and Zach Parise’s buyout penalty jumps to $14.74 million.
He should also understand that the price for top-four D-men isn’t coming down, and with so few of them heading to unrestricted free agency, there will be options.
Provided the Wild are in playoff contention around the deadline, we can’t see Guerin moving such a key piece. If not, all bets are off.
“It’s not something I think we really need to be distracted with right now,” Guerin told reporters, regarding extension talks.
“Matt’s a big boy. I am, too. We both know our situation.”
10. Tristan Jarry
Age on July 1: 28
Position: Goaltender
2022-23 salary cap hit: $3.5 million
The latest: Due to his youth and pedigree, Jarry tops our list as the most desirable pending free agent between the pipes (apologies, Frederik Andersen).
The Pittsburgh Penguins’ No. 1 bounced back lovely from a shaky 2020-21 outing and delivered a solid performance in 2021-22, boosting optimism for the final campaign of his three-year bridge and first taste of UFA life.
Even in these cap-tight times, the best goalie available come July 1 typically gets paid handsomely (see: Jacob Markstrom, Philipp Grubauer, Jack Campbell).
Jarry would rather not let negotiations linger that long, though.
The softspoken B.C. native told reporters at training camp that he is hopeful a fresh contract is signed before season’s end.
GM Ron Hextall is probably still catching his breath from grinding Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang down to the wire.
He wasn’t rushing to take care of Jarry before puck drop and said in July that his preference is to not negotiate such deals in-season.
11. Patrice Bergeron
Age on July 1: 37
Position: Centre
2022-23 salary cap hit: $2.5 million
The latest: While 2022-23 certainly carries all the feels of a last dance — for real this time — the Boston Bruins captain and reigning Selke champ still deserves to be on this list, even if this marks his final lap through the league.
Bergeron considered the toll hockey has taken on his body and seriously weighed retirement before re-upping in the summer for a team-friendly, one-year contract to give it one more go.
Do not expect any contract chatter or rumours around Bergeron’s future this winter. Of every player on this list, we’ll label him Least Likely to Be Traded.
We’re curious to see how the B’s respond to Jim Montgomery, a new voice behind the bench.
Surely, the door for another re-up will be open.
12. Joe Pavelski
Age on July 1: 38
Position: Right wing / Centre
2022-23 salary cap hit: $5.5 million
The latest: The age-spiting Pavelski’s play is something to savour, like a fine wine, in an era run by the speedy, flashy kids.
One of those youngsters, new multimillionaire Jason Robertson, is partially responsible for Pavelski’s consistent production deep into his 30s. But the veteran’s acute hockey sense and dedication to his craft are not to be overlooked.
To be sure, Pavelski — one of the greatest Americans to lace ’em up — has reached the one-more-year stage of his contractual obligations, his family has warmed up to Texas, and an extension won’t be broached until trade deadline or later.
That said, like Bergeron, he is still one of hockey’s most impactful players on an expiring contract. Unlike Bergeron, he does not own a ring.
And if the Dallas Stars aren’t in the thick of a playoff race come March, we’ll wonder if an experienced, big-game presence like Pavelski is willing to take his hunt elsewhere.
More notable UFAs in 2023: Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Toews, Michael Bunting, Frederik Andersen, Connor Brown, Damon Severson, Ivan Barbashev, David Krejci, Alex Killorn, Vladislav Gavrikov, Shayne Gostisbehere, Brian Dumoulin, Artem Zub, Ryan Graves, Cam Talbot, Jonathan Quick, James van Riemsdyk, Paul Stastny, Phil Kessel, Kyle Okposo, Evgeni Dadonov, Corey Perry, Gustav Nyquist, Alexander Kerfoot, Craig Smith, Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Nedeljkovic, James Reimer, Justin Holl, Sean Monahan, Jonathan Drouin
All salary info via the indispensable CapFreindly.com.
