Individually, Connor McDavid has pretty much done it all. Two Hart Trophies. Three Ted Lindsay Awards. Four Art Ross Trophies. He’s an all-time great before the age of 26.
Before this season, though, McDavid had never scored 10 goals in his first 10 games of an NHL season. He took care of that with two goals Tuesday against the Predators, then added another in the Oilers’ loss to the Devils on Thursday, giving him a league-leading 12 on the season.
In doing so, McDavid became the first player since Nikita Kucherov in 2017-18 to score 12 goals in his team’s first 11 games.
It’s probably too soon for 50-in-50 talk, but who would doubt McDavid at this point? We learned long ago that any sentence beginning with, “There’s no way that Connor McDavid can…” is destined not to age well.
But maybe we’re not thinking big enough. As teammate Leon Draisaitl told Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman over the summer, “I said to (McDavid) that he needs to score 60 goals, because I know that he can, and I think he should be every year. He’s just that unselfish.”
“Leo and I are pretty good buddies,” McDavid smiled on Friday. “He always tells me that.”
Interestingly, early in the new season McDavid isn’t doing much differently in terms of creating offence for himself. His shot rate, offensive zone possession time and shot selection are in line with where they were last season, when he scored a career-high 44 goals in 80 games.
If anything, McDavid is actually being more unselfish than he’s ever been. His average of 9.6 slot pass attempts per game is by far the highest of his career. (The previous high was 7.6 in 2019-20.)
That apparent shift is most noticeable on the rush, where McDavid is dishing the puck 2.4 times per game, twice as much as he did a season ago.
It’d be easy to assume that McDavid, who has scored 100 of his 251 career goals off the rush, is calling his own number more often this season. But that’s not the case.
“I thought he was shooting more,” said sometimes winger Zach Hyman, who fed McDavid for a two-on-one goal Thursday. (He’s not.)
“Is he shooting from different areas?” (No.)
“I think he’s had more of a shooting mindset so far. I think he’s scored more on the power play, hasn’t he? (Six PPG in 11 games this season, four in 11 games last year.)
“I think he could have more too,” adds Hyman. “Sometimes when a guy goes on a hot streak, it’s like ‘Wow, everything is going in for that guy right now.’ But for him, I feel like not necessarily everything is going in. It’s like he’s getting more Grade A (chances) that aren’t falling for him. So it kind of seems sustainable.”
Actually, even that observation is a bit of a mirage.
McDavid’s expected goals and shot quality are not appreciably different this season than last. He seldom shoots from beyond the top or edges of the circles, and never scores from considerable distance.
So, with all of those fancy stats in mind, what’s the difference this season?
“Maybe just being a little more aggressive? Taking pucks to the net a little bit more, maybe? I don’t know. I don’t know what it is,” McDavid said. “I think it just shows that, sometimes, analytics are a moot point. Sometimes it’s just goin’ in for ya.”
McDavid, like most players in the game, is interested in a conversation about his analytics, though unlikely ever to do a deep dive himself. What he will admit however, is that with his 26th birthday coming this January — and NHL regular season Game No. 500 set for Monday in Washington — McDavid has matured.
He’s not that young, deferential kid anymore, who wants to prove to the world how unselfish he is.
“I was definitely one of those guys who came in and just wanted to make my linemates happy, and pass it away,” he said. “And I still want to make the right play and set my linemates up. But when the shot’s there, you’ve got to take it.
“I’m playing with some pretty good players, so I’m getting put in some good spots. When it’s your turn to shoot the puck, you’ve got to shoot it.”
The discussion here in Edmonton is whether we should be betting on a 50-goal season? Or 50 goals in 50 games?
McDavid will admit to some allure in the former, even if it is ridiculously early to start talking about the latter.
“Every great player in the league has scored 50 goals. It’s obviously something I’d like to do one day,” said McDavid. “But it’s not the end of the world, the be-all-end-all for me.”
His coach, Jay Woodcroft, does the smart thing. When it comes to puck decisions, he stays out of McDavid’s way.
“I have complete trust that he’s going to make the right play,” Woodcroft said. “If he does feel that the play to be made is a shot, he’s taken it. And I 100% trust his decision in that moment.”
