The semifinals of the FIFA 2022 World Cup are all set after a thrill-a-minute quarterfinal round that saw three traditional powerhouses and an upstart African nation emerge as the last teams standing.
Argentina and Croatia booked their spots in the semis after winning dramatic penalty shootouts, while France and Morocco took care of business in regulation time, but not before facing a bit of a scare against their opponents.
Who has what it takes to go all the way in Qatar?
Here’s a look at the final four teams, and why each of the semi-finalists will win the World Cup, and why they’ll fall short.
ARGENTINA
Path to the knockout stage: First place in Group C
Results: 2-1 loss to Saudi Arabia, 2-0 win vs. Mexico, 2-0 win vs. Poland, 2-1 win vs. Australia, 2-2 vs. Netherlands (PK win)
Next opponent: Croatia (Tuesday, Dec. 13 at 2 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. PT)
Why it’ll win the World Cup
Contrary to popular belief, Argentina hasn’t simply relied upon Lionel Messi to get it this far. To be sure, the PSG star has been the main protagonist for La Albiceleste with four goals in five games. But the team’s crop of exciting youngsters — led by Enzo Fernández (21), Julián Álvarez (22) and Alexis Mac Allister (23) — have also played major roles in Argentina’s run to the semifinals.
As a result, opponents can’t afford to simply focus on stopping Messi. If they do, it’ll open up space and opportunities for his young teammates to do damage.
Why it won’t win the World Cup
Game management has been an issue for Argentina since its group stage opener when it took the lead but couldn’t finish off Saudi Arabia and eventually lost. Up 2-0 against the Dutch, the Argentines conceded two late goals and were forced to go to a penalty shootout.
In the Round of 16, Australia had Argentina on the ropes for the last 20 minutes, and nearly forced extra time. Messi and his cohorts can’t afford to keep allowing their opponents to get up off the mat after being knocked down.
FRANCE
Path to the knockout stage: First place in Group D
Results: 4-1 win vs. Australia, 2-1 win vs. Denmark, 1-0 loss to Tunisia, 3-1 win vs. Poland, 2-1 win vs. England
Next opponent: Morocco (Wednesday, Dec. 14 at 2 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. PT)
Why it’ll win the World Cup
Simply put, they’re the reigning champions and have played like it at this tournament. The three previous World Cup holders failed to get out of the group stage: Italy in 2010, Spain in 2014 and Germany in 2018. But France has barely missed a beat in Qatar, except for the loss to Tunisia when manager Didier Deschamps rested his starters.
Kylian Mbappé has been sensational, midfielder Adrien Rabiot has been a revelation, and Antoine Griezmann has been one of the tournament’s best playmakers on a French starting 11 that is balanced from front to back.
Why it won’t win the World Cup
France has yet to keep a clean sheet in this tournament, while fullbacks Theo Hernandez and Jules Kounde haven’t exactly wrapped themselves in glory in Qatar, with Kounde being the weakest link in defence. Hakim Ziyech and Sofiane Boufal of Morocco are two lethal wingers who love to run at defenders, and fullback Achraf Hakimi is one of the fastest players at this tournament.
Morocco’s dangerous trio of wide players will target Kounde and Hernandez and exploit the lack of defensive help that the French fullbacks will receive from Mbappé.
MOROCCO
Path to the knockout stage: First place in Group F
Results: 0-0 vs. Croatia, 2-0 win vs. Belgium, 2-1 win vs. Canada, 0-0 vs. Spain (PK win), 1-0 win vs. Portugal
Next opponent: France (Wednesday, Dec. 14 at 2 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. PT)
Why it’ll win the World Cup
One word: Defence. Morocco boasts the best defensive record at this World Cup, with just one goal against in five games, and it was an own-goal in its group stage win over Canada. No opposing player has managed to score and breach their back line.
Buoyed by the superb centre-back duo of Nayef Aguerd and captain Romain Saïss, the Moroccans have managed to shut out Belgium, Croatia, Spain and Portugal, keeping world-class attackers such as Ronaldo and Kevin De Bruyne off the scoresheet.
Why it won’t win the World Cup
We know Morocco can hold onto a lead, but we have no idea if it can come from behind as the Atlas Lions haven’t trailed in a game for a single minute at this World Cup. France has opened the scoring on three occasions in Qatar, winning all three times.
If the French score first, that’ll mean the Africans will have to open up and take some chances, which potentially leaves them defensively vulnerable and easier to exploit by France’s high-octane attack led by tournament top scorer Kylian Mbappé.
CROATIA
Path to the knockout stage: Second place in Group F
Results: 0-0 vs. Morocco, 4-1 win vs. Canada, 0-0 vs. Belgium, 1-1 vs Japan (PK win), 1-1 vs. Brazil (PK win)
Next opponent: Argentina (Tuesday, Dec. 13 at 2 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. PT)
Why it’ll win the World Cup:
In Luka Modrić (Real Madrid), Mateo Kovačić (Chelsea) and Marcelo Brozović (Inter Milan), Croatia boasts a central midfield nucleus that oozes pure class and quality, and that is the envy of every other team at this World Cup. The trio has proven to be incredibly durable, as they’ve started all five games together and have combined to play 1,441 out of a possible 1,530 minutes.
The Croatians have controlled the midfield battle for the majority of their time in Qatar, including in the last two games that went to penalty kicks.
Why it won’t win the World Cup:
Aside from its 4-1 win over Canada in the group stage, the Croatians have yet to find their goal-scoring groove at the World Cup. They’ve been shut out on two occasions, have yet to open the scoring through their first five games of the tournament and have only once managed to score more than one goal in a single game.
Argentina has yet to be blanked in Qatar, which means Croatia will likely have to get a few goals against the South Americans in order to advance to the final.
John Molinaro is one of the leading soccer journalists in Canada, having covered the game for over 20 years for several media outlets, including Sportsnet, CBC Sports and Sun Media. He is currently the editor-in-chief of TFC Republic, a website dedicated to in-depth coverage of Toronto FC and Canadian soccer. TFC Republic can be found here.
