TORONTO – Years of catching rumours culminated in a three-player trade Friday afternoon, with the Blue Jays sending top prospect Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to the Arizona Diamondbacks for outfielder Daulton Varsho.
Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk can now breathe easy. They’re in place as Toronto’s catching tandem for at least the next two years.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays trade a potential long-term contributor in Moreno as well as Gurriel Jr., who was one year away from free agency. It’s a significant haul, one the Blue Jays don’t surrender lightly, but that was the price required to obtain Varsho, the best player in the deal.
A defensively gifted player, Varsho gets exceptional reads on fly balls and chases them down with highlight reel diving catches. In 2022, he led all MLB outfielders with 18 outs above average and at age 26 he’s still very much in his prime.
Alongside fellow newcomer Kevin Kiermaier, Varsho will strengthen the Blue Jays’ outfield defence significantly in 2023. Presuming Kiermaier makes most of his starts in centre, the Blue Jays can then deploy Varsho and George Springer in the corners to support fly ball heavy pitchers like Alek Manoah and Jose Berrios. While they pitch fewer innings, relievers Trevor Richards and Yimi Garcia figure to benefit, too.
In theory, the Blue Jays are trading away a catcher and an outfielder for a player who can do both. And chances are, Varsho will catch occasionally in 2023, but the Blue Jays appear to view him primarily as an outfielder. His ability to catch is a bonus, but it would be a surprise if he even matched the 18 starts behind the plate he made last year in Arizona.
That puts additional pressure on Jansen and Kirk, and may increase the likelihood the Blue Jays add a veteran catcher with big-league experience. Stashing such a player at triple-A would have its advantages, if possible.
Both outgoing players were international signing success stories for the Blue Jays. Signed out of Cuba in November of 2016, Gurriel Jr. batted .285/.329/.468 in five seasons with Toronto – good for an OPS+ of 117. Like Gurriel Jr., Moreno was also signed as an infielder before converting to catcher. A lifetime .310 hitter in the minor leagues, he now ranks among the game’s top prospects at age 22.
Then there’s the offensive side of the deal. Varsho hit 27 home runs last year on his way to a .235/.302/.443 batting line in a career-high 592 plate appearances. A left-handed hitter, Varsho strikes out more than average (24.5 per cent strikeout rate) while also finding more barrels than average (10.2 per cent barrel rate).
All things considered, he’s a comparable offensive player to Gurriel Jr., with a projected wRC+ of 108 for 2023 compared to Gurriel Jr.’s 116. But Varsho’s easily the superior defensive player and he’s four years away from free agency, giving the Blue Jays a long-term outfield option they previously lacked.
Still, this move could fairly be described as neutral offensively. For the Blue Jays to achieve their stated goal of offensive improvements, further additions would help. On that front they’ll be open-minded with one source suggesting the front office will be on the lookout for further offensive help in the weeks ahead.
The deal also saves the Blue Jays about $3 million for 2023 as Gurriel Jr. will earn $5.8 million, compared to a projected $2.8 million for Varsho in his first time through arbitration (via MLB Trade Rumors). With that, the Blue Jays’ projected 2023 payroll hovers right around MLB’s first projected competitive balance threshold – $233 million.
But since both president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins have indicated the Blue Jays are comfortable going past the CBT, there’s room for more additions. The front office has been staying open-minded on further pitching, but the most obvious spot to add still seems to be on the position player front following the departures of Gurriel Jr. and Moreno.
The free agent market has thinned considerably by this point, but an outfielder who can hit tough lefties would make sense on paper. First base depth behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could also be a consideration now that Gurriel Jr.’s gone, though Cavan Biggio can handle first if needed.
In other words, further moves are likely in the weeks leading up to spring training. But this will clearly be the most impactful trade of the off-season for the Blue Jays, who have made their most extravagant free agent splashes, too. With the biggest moves of the winter now complete, it’s time to fill in around the edges.
