The old adage is that the team that gets the best player wins the trade.
Well – apologies to Khem Birch – the Toronto Raptors won their first deal leading up to the NBA trade deadline decisively.
In the wee hours of Thursday morning, ESPN reported that Toronto had acquired Jakob Poeltl from the San Antonio Spurs for Birch, the Raptors’ 2024 protected first-round pick and two future second-round picks.
The Raptors immediately got better. The question is by how much, and what will come next?
Between a steady stream of injuries over the past two years and Raptors head coach Nick Nurse choosing to play without a centre or turning to Precious Achiuwa and rookie Christian Koloko for those minutes, Birch had fallen well out of the rotation this season.
In acquiring Poeltl from the Spurs, Toronto is reuniting with a player they chose ninth overall in the 2016 NBA Draft and were always very high on before including him in the trade package that landed them Kawhi Leonard from the Spurs in the summer of 2018.
Given the Raptors’ lack of experience and quality at centre, the move certainly fills a need, and Toronto – which tried to trade for Poeltl at the deadline last year – considers him “elite at what he does. He is a role-playing big who can bolster a defence and support an offence with screen setting, finishing at the rim and playmaking.
Poeltl is averaging 12.1 points, 9.1 rebounds and a career-high 3.1 assists on 62.5 per cent shooting in 26 minutes a game so far this season.
Coincidentally, the Raptors hosted the rebuilding Spurs in what turned out to be a 112-98 win for Toronto on Wednesday.
Raptors head coach Nick Nurse was clear in his appreciation for Poeltl when asked about him before the game.
“We loved him when he was here. Just a really good, smart, tough, hard-working, does a lot of the game, right?” said Nurse, who was an assistant to then Raptors head coach Dwane Casey during Poeltl’s two seasons in Toronto, and worked closely with the bench unit. “He’s a screener, a rebounder, rim protector, pretty smart on D, not necessarily a shot blocker but body up rim protector kind of guy.
“That’s pretty good on the list of big guy things to do: If you can rebound, protect the rim, and pass the ball, set a few screens, he can handle it and get it to the rim and finish a little bit, too. Yep, we really liked him when he was here.”
And now he’s back. And could the Raptors use him? Sure, a 26-30 team that’s 29th in opponent’s effective field goal percentage and 17th on overall defensive rating needs help.
Given the Raptors are 19th in opponent’s field goal percentage inside five feet, adding a veteran seven-footer should be a plus. The Raptors have benefitted having Koloko on the floor this year – lineups with the rookie centre on the floor are 11.6 points better per 100 possessions defensively. But Koloko’s offensive challenges and high foul rate have meant the Raptors haven’t been able to uses them very much.
Poeltl’s experience and offensive polish should allow them to have a true centre on the floor more often.
But full judgment on the benefits of the trade will have to wait until the 3 p.m. ET deadline passes and the Raptors are done dealing.
Because on the surface, the Raptors look to be wading into more mediocrity. Adding the big Austrian seems to be a signal that the Raptors are committed to pursuing a play-in or playoff spot this season – they are in 10th place, 4.5 games out of sixth in the East – and keep building around some version of their current core.
It’s not a move that’s taking one step back to take a bigger step forward. And even the step forward isn’t a lock.
Poeltl’s a lot of good things, but he’s a non-shooter, which could create spacing problems for an offence that lacks shooting and faces a crowded paint too often. He also could challenge the emerging Achiuwa for minutes and conceivably block Koloko’s development. And while Poeltl profiles as a good defender, the Spurs are 30th in defensive rating this season and have been 16th, 17th, 25th and 19th in Poeltl’s previous four years in San Antonio. Not that he’s been the problem, just that he’s not a one-man solution.
The question is how much this moves the needle for the Raptors now, and to what degree it influences the team’s direction in the intermediate term.
Poeltl is a pending free agent and likely in the market for a deal in the $16-$20 million range.
Because the Raptors also have Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. expected to test free agency this summer and looking for deals beginning at $30 million and north of $20 million, respectively, signing all three and keeping under the luxury tax will difficult to impossible, even though getting out from the $7 million Birch is owed for next season helps somewhat.
So between a potential cash crunch – the Raptors have roughly $57 million to sign three players who likely expect to earn $70-75 million between them in 2023-24 – and interest that O.G. Anunoby has generated as trade target, it’s hard to imagine the Raptors won’t be making at least one more move.
And the market could be frothy. The Phoenix Suns’ reported acquisition of Kevin Durant from Brooklyn overnight Thursday suddenly could put the Raptors in a favourable position.
Teams hoping to emerge from the Western Conference – the Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans, Golden State Warriors, and Denver Nuggets come to mind – could all benefit from having a high-quality wing defender like Anunoby to throw at Durant, not to mention the likes of Leonard and Paul George with the Clippers or Luka Doncic – more dangerous now with the acquisition of Kyrie Irving on Sunday – with the Mavericks.
The Clippers remain in need of a proven point guard now that Irving, DeAngelo Russell (traded to the Los Angeles Lakers) and Mike Conley (traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves) are off the market.
The Clippers have long admired VanVleet. Could the Raptors’ price be going up?
Maybe if they’re lucky they can turn one player into another good player or two on a favourable contract and make up for some of the draft capital they gave up acquiring Poeltl.
Presumably those moves would make them better
More will be clear as the day unfolds – that’s the only thing certain for now.
But the Raptors’ choice to jump into the trade market as buyers – even at a good price – on Poeltl raises more questions than answers in the short term.
