WINNIPEG – The final week of the NHL’s regular season has arrived and yes, there are plenty of important things left to be determined.
Although 13 of 16 teams already have X’s to mark their official invitation to the Stanley Cup party, three of the four wild cards are up for grabs.
The Seattle Kraken were the seventh team in the Western Conference to punch their ticket in what has been an excellent second season.
The Kraken are 45-26-8 with three games left in the regular season and with 98 points, they still have the potential to leapfrog the Los Angeles Kings and into third place in the Pacific Division — so technically the chase for the first wild card remains.
As for the second, it’s a three-horse race between the Winnipeg Jets (91 points, three games remaining), Calgary Flames (90 points, two games remaining) and Nashville Predators (88 points, three games remaining).
“We’re in the middle of the fire. Right in the middle of it,” Jets forward Blake Wheeler said in a recent interview. “We haven’t accomplished anything, nothing’s over with yet. I guess we’ll find out what we’re made of.”
The Jets took a leg up in this chase with a tidy 2-0 victory over the Predators on Saturday night, while the Flames picked up a valuable point but lost in a shootout to the Vancouver Canucks, putting another dent in their playoff hopes.
Along with the one-point edge, the Jets hold the tie-breaker over both teams and one of them will come away with two points on Monday night as the Flames and Predators go head-to-head.
The Jets face the San Jose Sharks on Monday to close out a five-game homestand, then go out on the road and play the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday and the Colorado Avalanche on Thursday.
The Flames round out the regular season on Wednesday against the Sharks, while the Predators close out against the Wild and Avalanche.
The race is even tighter at the top of the Western Conference, where the Vegas Golden Knights are leading the pack by two points over the Edmonton Oilers, with two games remaining.
The Avalanche and Dallas Stars are five points behind the Golden Knights, though the Stars hold a game in hand and earned an important shootout victory over Vegas on Saturday.
Colorado has two games in hand, one of which will be played against the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday night, leaving the door open for a fun finish.
With only two points separating the Wild from both the Avalanche and Stars, the jockeying for position will continue right until Friday, when Colorado closes out the regular season against the Predators.
That leaves all four matchups in the West still undecided, unlike in the Eastern Conference, where we already know the Toronto Maple Leafs will once again go head-to-head with the Tampa Bay Lightning in the opening round.
Things in the Metropolitan Division have heated up and while the Carolina Hurricanes maintain a one-point lead over the New Jersey Devils and hold a game in hand, they’ll wrap up with games against the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings and what should be a highly-entertaining tilt against the Florida Panthers in Game 82 (we’ll get to the Panthers in a couple of paragraphs).
The New York Rangers are three points behind the Hurricanes and still have an outside chance at top spot, though that would require a serious stumble by both Carolina and New Jersey.
As for the wild card berths, both are still very much up in the air, with the Panthers holding the first (91 points), the New York Islanders in control of the second (91 points) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (90) hoping one of those clubs might not run the table.
The Buffalo Sabres still haven’t been eliminated, but with four games remaining, they’ll likely need to win all of them and still get a lot of help on the out-of-town scoreboard.
Some additional clarity could come in the East by midweek since the Sabres’ schedule includes head-to-head games with the Rangers on Monday and the Devils on Tuesday.
The Panthers have what looks like the toughest schedule, with dates coming with the Maple Leafs on Monday and the Hurricanes on Thursday.
The Islanders meet the Washington Capitals on Monday and the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday, while the Penguins finish up with the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday and the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday.
Add it all up and there could be a number of actual win-or-go-home games on the horizon here for a number of the playoff hopefuls, with the Stanley Cup playoffs set to open on April 17.
GET YOUR VIRTUAL PENCILS READY
It’s that time of the year when many members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) are crunching numbers and debating (sometimes vehemently) over which players should be on their respective ballots for NHL Awards.
There are several of those awards going down to the wire as well and no, the Hart Trophy isn’t one of them — though the chase for second spot here features a full field of worthy candidates.
My full ballot will be available once the awards are announced, but for the time being, there are two awards the PHWA doesn’t vote on — the Jack Adams Trophy and the Vezina Trophy — and I’ve got a few thoughts on both of them to share on this double-header Masters Sunday.
Let’s start with the coach of the year, which is going to be rightfully awarded to Jim Montgomery of the Bruins.
The Bruins are having a ridiculous season and improved 62-12-5 to give them 129 points with three games left in the campaign and perhaps more absurd than the record or points accumulated is the league-best goal differential of plus-122 (no, that is not a misprint).
For the sake of context, the Oilers are second in the league in that category at plus-61.
So why bring up an award if the winner is obvious?
It’s because, in a “normal” season, there would be as many as 10 bench bosses you could make a legitimate case for in this category, which is often handed out to a coach on a surprise team rather than a dominant one.
There are 11 teams that have already hit the century mark in points and the Kraken are a good bet to become the 12th, so it’s clear there have been a number of impressive performances.
But how do you distinguish between who would be second or fifth on the ballot?
That’s where things get challenging.
For my money, Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar should be the runner-up.
If your response was why would the guy who led the Avalanche to the Stanley Cup last season be ranked ahead of the likes of Lindy Ruff, Bruce Cassidy, Todd Woodcroft, Rod Brind’Amour, Pete DeBoer, Dean Evason, Todd McLellan, Gerard Gallant or even Dave Hakstol?
It’s because of several factors, including the guys who have dealt with or are dealing with significant injuries on the Avalanche roster.
Never mind the fact the Avalanche had a short summer, they’ve been without captain Gabe Landeskog for the entire regular season while Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon also missed double digits in games, along with Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen and Josh Manson.
The Avalanche also made goalie Alexandar Georgiev a full-time starter for the first time and he responded incredibly well, helping his team have an opportunity to remain in the hunt for top spot.
Bednar has shown he has a sharp mind for the past few seasons, but this might be the best job he’s done in the regular season since taking over the job back in 2016.
Spots three through five will be determined this week, though Cassidy holds a slight edge over Ruff and Woodcroft going into the home stretch.
As for the Vezina, there are at least six strong candidates for those five spots, no matter what metrics you value.
Reigning Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin is having another solid campaign, allowing the Rangers to be among the top teams in the Metro while Andrei Vasilevskiy has been brilliant once again for the Lightning but they’re probably battling for the final spot on the ballot right now — with Vasilevskiy earning the edge with two additional appearances right now.
Remember this is a regular season award, even though Vasilevskiy’s reputation as a clutch performer has been boosted by two Stanley Cup victories and three consecutive appearances.
Linus Ullmark has been the clubhouse leader for the majority of the season and for good reason, as he’s posted remarkable numbers on the best team in the NHL, including a .938 save percentage, the only sub-2 (1.89 for those of you keeping track at home) goals-against average while sitting second in goals saved above expected (42.6 according to MoneyPuck).
The only thing working against Ullmark is his workload, though it’s not his fault the Bruins are one of the teams with the best one-two tandem in the NHL (with Jeremy Swayman) and they believe in sharing the crease to help keep both goalies fresh.
Ullmark’s 48 appearances (and 47 starts) and considerably lower than Connor Hellebuyck of the Jets, who leads the NHL with 62 appearances and starts.
Does that mean he’s not a worthy candidate?
Absolutely not.
Could it factor into the equation for some voters?
Of course.
But it’s not an award based solely on volume.
Nor should Ullmark be penalized because the Bruins are considered to be a committed and structured team.
However, Hellebuyck is about to make a 12th consecutive start on Monday night and the chances are high he’ll play in all three games this week, leaving him with 65 starts — which would be one off his career-best for starts and two behind his high for appearances.
Hellebuyck is providing Vezina-worthy play, with his goals-saved above expected leaving him fourth in the NHL in that category at 26.7 to go with the third-best save percentage among full-time starters (.918) and four shutouts (which leaves him tied for fourth in that category with Vasilevskiy).
Juuse Saros of the Predators has been the biggest reason the Predators stayed in the playoff chase right until the end, despite being a clear seller at the NHL trade deadline.
Saros has rocketed to the top of the goals saved above expected race (44.8) and he’s been a workhorse as well, making 62 appearances, including 61 starts, and carries a save percentage that leaves him tied for sixth in the NHL with Jake Oettinger of the Stars and Georgiev.
That leaves us with Ilya Sorokin of the Islanders, who leads the NHL in shutouts (six), is third in goals saved above expected (40.5) and is second in save percentage among full-time starters (.925) — Wild goalie Filip Gustavsson is having an awesome season but is clearly in a job share situation with Marc-Andre Fleury, thus the full-time starter distinction.
Sorokin plays on a team where goals are tough to come by (the Islanders are 22nd in goals per game), he’s made 60 starts and his underlying numbers are even more impressive than his traditional stats on a club that is on the verge of getting back into the postseason after missing out last spring.
This isn’t about sitting on the fence or recency bias, but the final ballot won’t be available until late Friday night.
That’s how close this race is and no, it’s not just about which teams get in and which are left on the outside looking in.
As of today though, it’s Sorokin, Ullmark, Hellebuyck, Saros and Vasilevskiy.
Send me your ballots — and tell me why I got it right or got it wrong — to: wiebesworld9@gmail.com.
A SALUTE TO 1,500 for 87
Another day, another major milestone for Penguins captain Sidney Crosby, who became the 15th player in NHL history to reach 1,500 points and the sixth fastest to do so, achieving the feat in his 1,188th regular season game.
The five players faster to the number?
Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Marcel Dionne, Jaromir Jagr and Phil Esposito.
What Crosby continues to do in his 18th NHL season is something to behold and a testament to both his ability and perseverance.
“It’s a nice number,” Crosby told reporters. “The most important thing is the next game and our situation here. The urgency and the desperation. That’s what I’m thinking about more than numbers. But it’s a nice number and a lot of guys are a big part of that — a couple of them, a long time. That’s just a product of some guys that I’ve played with over the years.”
A follow-up question about where he stands on the list was met with the same team-first attitude.
“I don’t think about that a whole lot,” said Crosby. “There are different points where you get milestones and certain ones maybe hit you or you reflect a bit more…. When I look back to those scenarios, it’s a compliment and I’m happy to be part of that, but I’ve always just had the mentality to try to be my best and wherever that puts me, as far as numbers or whatever the case is. I try to be my best so I can contribute to winning games. That’s what I care about.”
That Crosby chose to focus on his team’s playoff situation rather than celebrating a massive personal accomplishment was a surprise to nobody who has covered him over the course of his career.
Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan did his part to try and put the accomplishment into perspective following a 5-1 win over the Red Wings.
“The sixth fastest player to do it in the history of the game. There are only 15 players in that company. That speaks to the milestone and the impact that he’s had on the game,” Sullivan told reporters. “Not only is he one of the greatest players of his generation, he’s one of the greatest players of all time and he continues to do it.
“So, we all grow accustomed to these milestones that he keeps achieving. Every additional one that he achieves, it’s that much more impressive and puts him in elite company. I don’t know how else to say it. You guys know what I think of him as a player and a person. He’s just an incredible athlete and he just represents our game the right way. For me, he just personifies everything that’s right about hockey, that’s good about our sport. The way he carries himself, his humility. His performance speaks for itself, his legacy speaks for itself and his appetite to win never ceases to diminish. He’s as hungry as he’s ever been to win a Stanley Cup.”
RAPID FIRE
The century club welcomed its sixth, seventh and eighth members this week, with all of MacKinnon, Jason Robertson of the Stars and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins of the Oilers eclipsing 100 points. It’s the first time reaching the mark for all three of those players.
Speaking of milestone moments, Avalanche winger Mikko Rantanen moved into third place in the Rocket Richard race by notching a hat trick against the Sharks on Thursday, giving him the first 50-goal campaign of his career. Going into Sunday’s game against the Sharks, Rantanen is up to 52, leaving him behind only David Pastrnak of the Bruins (57) and Connor McDavid (64). The last Avalanche player to hit 50 goals was Milan Hejduk in 2002-03.
One of the other great debates when it comes to the Hart Trophy runner-up race is how to separate Rantanen and MacKinnon. Similar to McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on occasion in seasons past, both players are undeniably important to the Avalanche. Rantanen had to carry a big offensive load when MacKinnon missed time with injury, making his 52 goals all the more impressive. At the same time, MacKinnon’s ability to eclipse 100 points (37 goals, 104 points — and counting) while missing significant time can’t be ignored either. MacKinnon had three game-winning goals this week to move him to seven for the season, which is two off the team lead, which is held by Rantanen — who has scored 41 of his markers at even strength. Not sure how much vote-splitting will happen or if folks might consider both of these players on their respective ballots, but both seasons are to be celebrated for sure. For me, Rantanen holds a slight edge but both players remain under serious consideration for the No. 2 spot on the ballot, along with Robertson, Pastrnak, Draisaitl, Nikita Kucherov of the Lightning and Matthew Tkachuk of the Panthers.
