TORONTO — It was a surprising move that has worked out even better than expected.
In a season where so many things have gone wrong, the addition of Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline — the Toronto Raptors zagging when it was assumed they would zig and be sellers — has been an unequivocal success.
The Raptors are 15-10 since he was inserted into the starting lineup and all the supporting information point to Poeltl being the primary reason. Overall they are 9.2 points per 100 possessions better when Poeltl is on the floor, they score 3.6 points more per 100 possessions more when he plays, and the Raptors give up 5.6 points more when he sits.
As a result, the starting lineup the ninth-place Raptors will send out to the floor on Wednesday night for their play-in game against the 10th-place Chicago Bulls has been one of the better five-man units in the NBA since Poeltl joined them, ranking sixth in the NBA in points differential among lineups that have played at least 500 possessions together.
As mid-season additions go, it’s not quite adding Marc Gasol — the burly centre who proved to be the final piece in the Raptors championship puzzle — at the trade deadline in 2019, but Poeltl provided exactly what the Raptors needed at a price they could afford as he averaged 13.4 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.2 steals on 64.9 per cent shooting in just 27.6 minutes a game in his 25 starts with his new old team.
The only other players who check all those categories in the boxscore this season are Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid and Los Angeles Lakers big man Anthony Davis, and neither of them shot better than 60 per cent from the floor. The Raptors ranked 16th in defensive rebound percentage before Poeltl arrived and 10th since, allowing them to tidy up defensive possessions and give extra chances to their transition game — the lifeblood of their offence.
“I think his strength… is he does a little bit of everything. I really do,” said Raptors head coach Nick Nurse. “I’ve said this before a few times, I really feel like the defensive rebounding has probably been his biggest impact… it just feels like there are a lot more where it’s not five guys scrapping when we have to try to come up with a board. He just grabs it, and he’s pretty good about getting rid of it pretty quick, too, so we can get it up the floor.”
Poeltl was only on the Raptors roster for one meeting against the Bulls, a 104-98 Toronto win, but felt even having that one turn to prepare for Chicago should help in Wednesday’s ‘win-or-stay-home’ scenario.
“We play teams differently here than what I was used to with San Antonio,” said Poeltl, who played more than four seasons with the Spurs primarily as a drop defender, expected to protect the paint above all else but has been asked to be more aggressive up the floor with Toronto. “So a different, like, tactical scheme might throw me off a little bit, especially like early on in the game. So it’s definitely helpful that I’ve played Chicago already with this team with the way we want to play, and I think that’s going to help.”
Poeltl’s helped in a range of ways. It’s no coincidence that since he’s been a starter Fred VanVleet has distributed the ball with better results than at any time in his career, with the veteran point guard’s assists jumping from 6.5 a game before Poeltl arrived to 8.9 a game once Poeltl was in the lineup.
Pascal Siakam who — like VanVleet — played his two seasons with Poeltl before the Austrian centre was traded to San Antonio in the summer of 2018, has also been thrilled to be reunited.
“His screening is great, getting you open, I think that’s one good thing and I think I probably score the more off the ball with him being out there and making the passes and [making]cuts and things like that,” Siakam said.
“Gives me a little bit more, a little variety in how to score instead of having the ball all the time. Can pass it to him and make a read and he’s able to make a pass.”
The question will be — as soon as the Raptors season is over — whether or not this current group will have another season to improve on the chemistry they’ve been developing since the all-star break.
Poeltl is a free agent, as is VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr., while Siakam will be eligible for a contract extension in advance of the final year of his deal.
It will be interesting to see if Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster decide that the way the Raptors finished the regular season — Toronto played at a nearly 50-win pace with Poeltl starting — makes it worthwhile to invest in the existing group or if the way they were limping along prior to the trade is a sign that significant changes are necessary.
Some of those changes may be forced by circumstance — especially if Nurse ends up moving on, which has been widely rumoured and will require the Raptors to hire a new head coach.
Other changes will be a matter of choice. Is it better, for example, to gauge what the trade market is like for Siakam after a career season in terms of productivity and try to make the lineup a little younger and a little deeper while restoring some draft capital?
Is it worth investing in Trent Jr. again, or has that experiment run its course? And where will the new additions that the Raptors will need to shore up their bench come from?
But whether the Raptors’ off-season is one of big change or tweaks to the status quo, it’s all but assured that Poeltl will be back. He’s been the best thing that’s happened to the Raptors this season, however long it lasts.
