The goaltending position can make or break you in the playoffs, and having more than one solid option is more and more becoming a necessity. Still, even as overall goalie workloads are declining, having one of the league’s true workhorses can make all the difference.
That’s all to say: there is more than one way to to approach the position and find post-season success.
Every team’s situation in net is slightly different, but in some cases there are some common elements at play. So, we’ve broken the 16 playoff teams into four “tiers” that divide them by what their outlook is in the crease.
THE ACE TIER
A proven, top-notch, elite and heavy usage netminder is someone you can realistically envision stealing a series. If these teams win the Stanley Cup, their netminder is likely to be in the running for the Conn Smythe.
New York Rangers: Igor Shesterkin
Arrived in the NHL with great expectations, Shesterkin has met them all. Since his rookie 2019-20 season, the 27-year-old has an NHL-best .924 save percentage (min. 40 games) and the third-best GAA at 2.34. His first real playoff run came last season, and Shesterkin led the Rangers to the conference final, after knocking out the Penguins and Hurricanes in seven games each. Shesterkin finished with a .929 post-season save percentage (first among all goalies who advanced past Round 1). Shesterkin played in six elimination games last season (three vs. Pittsburgh, two vs. Carolina, one vs. Tampa Bay) and was outstanding with a 5-1 record and .931 save percentage.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiy
The King of this tier, Vasilevskiy has led the way to two Stanley Cups, three appearances in the final and earned a Conn Smythe Trophy along the way. Vasilevskiy has been Tampa’s constant in net and when the Lightning have had a chance to eliminate an opponent, he’s been absolutely lights out. Since his first Cup win in 2019-20, Vasilevskiy has an 11-5 record and .951 save percentage in games where the Lightning have had a chance to close out a series.
New York Islanders: Ilya Sorokin
The newest addition to this group, Sorokin is the least proven of the four. In fact, given how little post-season experience he actually has (seven appearances two years ago) some might not be ready to place him within this class. But over the past three years Sorokin has clearly established himself in the upper-tier of netminders, and he’ll be in the running to be a Vezina finalist this season. In 2021, Semyon Varlamov was still New York’s starter, but Sorokin made five playoff starts, won four of them and posted a .934 save percentage. There’s a question if these Islanders can score enough to win a series, but with Sorokin in net their opponent could have trouble scoring, too.
Winnipeg Jets: Connor Hellebuyck
The Jets’ MVP, Hellebuyck might win some Vezina votes this season and his performance in April (4-1-0, .953 SV%, 1.41 GAA) when Winnipeg were in a battle to just clinch a playoff spot, seems to indicate he’ll be coming in hot to a first-round series. When the Jets last went on a post-season run to the 2018 Western Conference Final, Hellebuyck had a .927 save percentage with two shutouts through the first two rounds and Winnipeg didn’t trail a series until Game 3 of the conference final. They have had one series win since, a four-game sweep over Edmonton when Hellebuyck had a 2.00 GAA.
THE TAG TEAM TIER
Though some of these teams do have an obvious Game 1 starter and someone to shoulder most of the workload, we wouldn’t be surprised if a No. 2 (or even a No. 3 in some cases) makes an appearance that isn’t injury related.
Carolina Hurricanes: Antti Raanta, Frederik Andersen, Pyotr Kochetkov
Last season Andersen would have been the obvious choice to start Game 1 and carry the load from there, but an April injury moved him to the sidelines and made way for Raanta. The 33-year-old Finn — who had never started a playoff game before — bested the Bruins, then hung with Shesterkin and the Rangers for seven games, finishing the playoffs with a .922 save percentage. Of course, Raanta needed Kochetkov to start once and come on in relief three times. This season, Raanta has the better numbers than Andersen and even Kochetkov had a good run of starts early in the season. There’s a big decision for Rod Brind’Amour to make on which goalie he’s going with in Game 1, but we may wind up seeing all three of them at some point anyway.
Boston Bruins: Linus Ullmark, Jeremy Swayman
Ullmark is likely going to be atop many Vezina ballots for his regular season, and he’s the favourite to take home the award. That, usually, would be enough for a ‘tender to be locked in as the every-game starter. But while Ullmark is very likely to be in net for the Bruins when the playoffs begin, he did leave Tuesday’s game early this week and didn’t go to Montreal for Thursday’s game. Starting the playoffs banged up means that second goalie could be a factor. The thing about the Bruins is that Swayman is a good option to turn to, even without an injury. Swayman finished 23-6-4 with a .922 save percentage and 2.21 GAA this season, ranking eighth via MoneyPuck in Goals Saved Above Expected. Ullmark started Games 1 and 2 for Boston versus Carolina in last season’s playoffs, lost both, and was replaced by Swayman, who extended the series to seven games.
Minnesota Wild: Marc-Andre Fleury, Filip Gustavsson
This has become an interesting split. In one corner you have the smiley three-time Stanley Cup champion and four-time finalist. In the other you have last year’s third-stringer for the Ottawa Senators who has never played a Stanley Cup Playoff game before. Thing is, last year’s third-stringer is this year’s possible Vezina finalist. Gustavsson’s North American career was in question a year ago, but today he’s wrapping up a season in which he stopped over 93 per cent of the shots he faced, ranked top seven in Goals Saved Above Expected, and has a single regulation loss in the past two months. Fleury has shared the playoff net several times in his career before, and that seems likely to happen again in 2023.
Vegas Golden Knights: Laurent Brossoit, Jonathan Quick, Logan Thompson, Adin Hill
Before his injury right after all-star break, Thompson was humming along as Vegas’ starter and Hill was providing solid support. Since then, injuries hit both players, the Golden Knights needed to trade for Quick at the deadline, and now career backup Brossoit is coming into the playoffs playing the best hockey. Vegas hasn’t been a stranger to shaking up its look in goal during playoff time, and this year’s mix is more volatile than ever before. Heck, all four may get in at some point.
|
VEGAS GOALIES BEFORE MARCH 3 |
RECORD |
SV% |
GAA |
|
Logan Thompson |
20-13-3 |
.914 |
2.66 |
|
Adin Hill |
16-6-1 |
.914 |
2.51 |
|
VEGAS GOALIES AFTER MARCH 3 |
RECORD |
SV% |
GAA |
|
Laurent Brossoit |
5-0-1
|
.915 |
2.33 |
|
Jonathan Quick |
5-2-2 |
.901 |
3.13 |
Los Angeles Kings: Joonas Korpisalo, Pheonix Copley
The position was clearly a concern this season and as the Kings got to the trade deadline all three of their goalies had save percentages under .900 and as a team ranked 31st in the stat. So, GM Rob Blake acquired Joonas Korpisalo in the controversial move that shipped out Quick and it proved to be just what the organization ordered. Since the deadline Los Angeles has the fifth-best save percentage in the NHL. Korpisalo is 6-3-1 with a .926 SV% and 2.03 GAA since, but Copley has also been much improved (5-2-1, .916, 2.19). Korpisalo is the only one with playoff experience, playing nine games in the 2020 bubble and leading Columbus to an upset over the Maple Leafs.
Florida Panthers: Sergei Bobrovsky, Alex Lyon
When Bobrovsky last played a game on March 27, the Panthers were 10th in the East and four points back of the second wild card spot. The odds weren’t fantastic at that time and, with Spencer Knight in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, turning to Lyon was going to stretch them even further. But as Bobrovsky was out due to a non-COVID illness, Lyon pieced together an improbable run and didn’t lose a single game in regulation until the Panthers had clinched their spot. Now they at least won’t be shy to turn to Lyon, but will Paul Maurice let the hot hand ride in the playoffs, or quickly look to turn back to the $10 million man?
|
|
RECORD |
SV% |
|
Alex Lyon career before March 29 |
10-10-4 |
.890 |
|
Alex Lyon since March 29 |
6-1-1 |
.943 |
THE ‘SMALL SAMPLE, BIG PRESSURE’ TIER
Each of these teams have sky-high expectations this playoff season, but while their go-to goalies have put together strong regular seasons, they also have little or no NHL playoff experience.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Ilya Samsonov
Let’s be clear: if Samsonov is not starting a playoff game for the Maple Leafs, it’ll only be because something went wrong. Even before Matt Murray’s latest injury, Samsonov has been the better and overall more consistent performer of the two this season. Samsonov played backup to Vitek Vanecek in Washington when last year’s playoff series versus Florida began, but after coming on in relief during Game 2, he started the next four in a row. Samsonov won his first start, then lost three in a row and allowed 12 goals. In 2021, Samsonov was the third Capitals goalie to get a start (behind Vanecek and Craig Anderson) and then he lost three in a row, allowing 10 goals against. In the end, the Caps let him walk as an unqualified RFA to free agency and the one-year ‘show me’ deal he signed with the Leafs has largely worked out for the player. But now it gets serious. While Samsonov now looks to establish himself as a playoff performer following his bounce back regular season, he’ll be doing so against the back drop of Toronto’s past failures and the sense that the guts of this team could radically change if they don’t at least win four games in the next couple of weeks.
Edmonton Oilers: Stuart Skinner
Jack Campbell was supposed to be the playoff workhorse after he signed a $5 million free agent contract last summer, but Skinner long ago took the reins here. Skinner will be the backbone of last year’s conference finalists, who arrive at the 2023 post-season a more rounded and polished version than any they’ve iced in the McDavid-Draisaitl era. In two years from now, Draisaitl will be in position to be a UFA if he doesn’t re-sign, and McDavid’s deal comes up three years from now. With that in the back of minds, there is no time to waste to get that banner, which is a heavy burden for a 24-year-old goalie who had 14 games of NHL experience coming into the season.
Colorado Avalanche: Alexandar Georgiev
Georgiev’s path to playoff starter comes after he spent five years as a backup in the Rangers organization, first to Henrik Lundqvist and then to Shesterkin. And while he was a projected starter one day for much of his Rangers tenure, his final season in that uniform cast some doubt on his suitability. Last season was Georgiev’s worst, finishing with an .898 save percentage and 2.92 GAA and when Colorado signed him for $3.4 million as a UFA, he was in competition with Pavel Francouz. But it’s ended up being Georgiev’s net from the start, playing a career-high 60 games, posting a career-high .919 save percentage and a career-low 2.51 GAA. When the Avalanche won the Cup last season, established veteran starter Darcy Kuemper was added to stabilize the crease. This season, the Avs will be defending their title with a former backup who hasn’t started a playoff game at any level since coming to North America in 2017.
Dallas Stars: Jake Oettinger
We didn’t know a ton about Oettinger when last year’s playoffs started. Sure, he was the branded ‘goalie of the future’ in Dallas, but at the start of the season he was much lower on the depth chart as the Stars carried a number of more veteran options. Eventually he took over, though his numbers started to slide in the final two months of the regular season. By the time the playoffs arrived he was the starter, though, and then nearly led the wild card Stars to a series win over the Pacific champion Flames. Oettinger posted a .954 save percentage and won three games before losing Game 7 in overtime despite making 64 saves. This season, there’s no doubt Oettinger is Dallas’ guy — the goalie of the future has fully arrived — but the team also gets here with heightened expectations. No longer a wild card, but a division runner-up to the defending champs, the Stars will fancy themselves Cup contenders and after last season’s performance, Oettinger has set the bar high.
THE HAPPY TO BE HERE, LET’S SEE WHAT YOU CAN DO TIER
Hey, they want to win — and possibly even can win — but this playoff season is just the start of the builds for these teams, and their goalies will have every opportunity to finally establish themselves.
New Jersey Devils: Vitek Vanecek
Some of Vanecek’s post-season play was referred to in Samsonov’s writeup, but neither of those two were able to take Washington’s No. 1 job. Vanecek has been a Game 1 playoff starter twice before, but has never seen a Game 3. In New Jersey for a fresh start this season, Vanecek played more games than he ever has before (52), had his best season by the numbers, and firmly grabbed the role from MacKenzie Blackwood. With two more years on his contract, Vanecek has some certainty that he’ll be moving forward with this Devils team no matter what happens next. And while the Devils could be a force in these playoffs, this is a young team making its first appearance in five years. The window is only just opening here and the situation isn’t as urgent as most others.
Seattle Kraken: Philipp Grubauer, Martin Jones
Ya OK this is maybe a tandem, but Grubauer has been the better of the two for months now and with Jones leaving a game this week early to injury, it seems clear who the favourite is to start Game 1. The Kraken are over the moon to be making their first Stanley Cup Playoffs appearance with considerable improvement from Year 1 to Year 2. They might also want to put Grubauer to the test, considering his horrible first season in Seattle was followed by a just slightly below average one in his second — and he still has four years remaining on a $5.9 million cap hit. Grubauer has 33 games of Stanley Cup Playoff experience and when we last saw him in the post-season he had a .914 save percentage with Colorado in 2021, winning his first six games in a row before dropping four in a row and getting eliminated by Vegas.
