BOSTON — Imagine we’re back in spring training. The 2023 MLB season has yet to begin. Everyone’s healthy, fresh, all bright-eyed and bushy-tailed.
Now picture learning in that moment that the Toronto Blue Jays would be at Fenway Park playing the Boston Red Sox on a scorching Sunday in early August. That Toronto would be entering four games up on Boston for the American League’s final wild-card spot — not a narrow lead, but not a commanding one, either. An important game to win for each side. Seems plausible enough.
But then we give you the lineup. No Bo Bichette; no Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Whit Merrifield batting leadoff with Brandon Belt behind him. Davis Schneider — Davis Schneider! — hitting third and playing up the middle next to Paul DeJong at shortstop. Chris Bassitt taking his turn in a six-man rotation. The most rested arms in a shortened bullpen being Bowden Francis, Jay Jackson, Jordan Hicks, and Genesis Cabrera.
Did anyone see any of this coming four months ago? Of course not. Everything we talk about during spring training is nonsense. When did a baseball season ever play out the way it was expected to? Back in March, discussion revolved around Alek Manoah as a Cy Young candidate; Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi as untrusted rotation options; Ricky Tiedemann on the verge of his major-league debut.
Anthony Bass and Adam Cimber were bullpen locks while Trevor Richards was fighting to hold onto his spot. Merrifield was destined for a part-time role while Daulton Varsho was positioned to bat cleanup. Otto Lopez was impressing everyone and the favourite to break camp as the 13th position player on the roster. Schneider had 17 games above double-A a year after nearly quitting the sport.
There is simply no predicting baseball. Which is how we end up with the Blue Jays rag-dolling the Red Sox on Sunday, 13-1, to complete a series sweep at Fenway Park. It was on a day that saw Schneider drive a ball literally out of the park on a four-hit day as he begins his MLB career 9-for-13 with two homers, Bassitt spin a seven-inning gem, Francis and Jackson cover the final two innings, and the Blue Jays pile up 16 hits and seven walks without either of their young franchise cornerstones.
It was the first time the Blue Jays didn’t have either Bichette or Guerrero in their lineup since Sept. 22, 2019. Wilmer Font opened against the Yankees that day ahead of Trent Thornton. Billy McKinney hit two homers from the leadoff spot. New York used Nestor Cortes in mop-up relief. The only player to appear for the Blue Jays in that game who’s still in the organization is Cavan Biggio.
That was only four years ago. Hardly a blink of an eye but not exactly ancient history. We can’t forget that things change so much, so often in baseball. Playing the game every damn day does beg some level of over-analysis and majoring in the minors. But last week’s losing homestand was only as meaningful as this week’s potentially winning road trip. In this game, things are never as good as they feel or as bad as they seem.
Back in 2019, Kevin Gausman was non-tendered. DeJong was an all-star who hit 30 homers. Schneider hit .146 at low-A. Hyun Jin Ryu won an ERA title while Bassitt finished the season pitching out of Oakland’s bullpen.
Sunday, making a second consecutive start on five day’s rest as part of a six-man rotation accommodating Ryu’s return from a UCL reconstruction, Bassitt threw seven innings of one-run ball, scattering seven hits and three walks while striking out six. He allowed all of his damage on a Triston Casas solo shot while racking up 10 swinging strikes with four different pitches.
Meanwhile, Toronto’s offence methodically worked over a cavalcade of Boston pitchers — the Red Sox were running a second consecutive bullpen day — batting around twice and beginning their fourth trip through the lineup in the fifth inning.
Belt, George Springer, Matt Chapman, and Kevin Kiermaier each had two hits. Schneider went two better with four. All nine Blue Jays starters reached base at least once. MLB’s third-least productive offence with runners in scoring position this season went 7-for-14 with a runner on second or third. By the fifth inning, Red Sox manager Alex Cora raised a white flag, pinch-hitting for his Nos. 3 and 4 hitters.
So, job done. Series swept. Which allows us to turn to more pressing matters for the Blue Jays. Namely, that after four months of remarkably good injury fortune, the club is beginning to face the kind of health concerns most teams have contended with all season.
We’ll start with Kiermaier, who left Sunday’s game in the sixth inning leaking blood from his right elbow after making a stunning grab at the centre-field wall and, in an attempt to double up a runner, unleashing an unbelievable throw to first on a line. The hope will have to be that he suffered merely a flesh wound and nothing more.
Bichette (knee), Jordan Romano (back), and Richards (neck) are already on the injured list, while Danny Jansen (wrist) has missed two games with residual soreness stemming from the 99-m.p.h. Shintaro Fujinami fastball he wore on Wednesday.
The Blue Jays are being cautious with Jansen, who initially intended to play through the injury with his wrist heavily taped on Saturday but opted against it. Toronto doesn’t want to risk Jansen worsening the injury and potentially missing an extended stretch at a critical juncture of the season.
Beyond his obvious importance behind the plate, Jansen has been a vital offensive contributor since overcoming a groin issue that forced him to the IL mid-year. Since he returned from that IL stint on June 13, Jansen leads all Blue Jays regulars with nine home runs, a .364 wOBA, .862 OPS, and 134 wRC+.
Of course, the most vital offensive contributor of all is Bichette, who resumed baseball activity this weekend at Rogers Centre. Bichette did some throwing on Saturday and was a possibility to begin hitting on Sunday if the patellar tendonitis in his right knee continued responding well to treatment.
Romano’s also in Toronto continuing his throwing progression and pitched off a mound on Saturday. The goal all along has been for the Blue Jays closer — who’s eligible to return on Aug. 13 — to spend a minimal stint on IL.
We’ll see how it goes. Between now and then, the Blue Jays travel to Cleveland for four games with a Guardians club that ranks within MLB’s bottom-10 in runs per game (4.1) and wRC+ (91). It’s a good opportunity for the Blue Jays, featuring a pitching staff tied for MLB’s third-lowest ERA, to continue stockpiling much-needed wins.
The Blue Jays entered this weekend’s series only two games ahead of Boston in the wild-card standings. They exit it having increased that gap to five. That’s good business. But, of course, the threats never end. Because while the Blue Jays were beating up on the Red Sox, the Seattle Mariners and Yankees were creeping ahead of Boston in the wild-card race.
It was the Mariners, remember, who looked like an imminent threat to Toronto’s playoff position only two weekends ago when the Blue Jays went to Seattle and dropped two of three. Just as the Angels were the team to worry about on the eve of the trade deadline when they arrived at Rogers Centre having won eight of 10. Los Angeles went on a wide shopping spree ahead of deadline day and promptly lost five straight.
Next weekend, it’ll be another team’s turn. Maybe the Mariners again. They’re playing well lately. Maybe the Yankees get on a run this week against the deconstructed Chicago White Sox and steadily sinking Miami Marlins. Maybe in a few weeks’ time it’s the Red Sox again, looking much less dysfunctional than they have this weekend with Trevor Story, Chris Sale, Tanner Houck, and Garrett Whitlock all returning from injury.
This is just how it’s going to be. This is the design. In expanding its playoffs and balancing its schedule, MLB sought parity that would keep more teams in contention late into the season. It’s one of the reasons why this year’s trade deadline was so undramatic. Entering the month of August, 21 teams were either occupying a playoff spot or within five games of one. In more than two-thirds of MLB markets, there was legitimate reason to believe a run to October was possible.
With eight weeks of baseball to be played, there are only five teams in the NL (Rockies, Nationals, Cardinals, Pirates, Mets) and four in the AL (Athletics, Royals, White Sox, Tigers) that you can truly write off from playoff consideration. Maybe we’ll be able to add a club or two to those lists come September. Or maybe the standings ebb, flow, and remain just as muddled as they are today.
Like it or not, this wild-card race is almost certainly coming down to September’s final weeks. Just as we all suspected when the 2023 schedule was released right around this time last year, Toronto’s final dozen games — three in the Bronx, three at the Trop, then six at home against those same Yankees and Rays — are shaping up to be extremely consequential. If there’s one thing we could’ve predicted during spring training, it’s that.
