Two teams went into the final weekend of the regular season desperately seeking the kind of reset offered only by the post-season.
The Toronto Blue Jays believed all season long that their combination of pitching and defence would stand them in good stead in the American League playoffs; that all they had to do was get in and. in the words of manager John Schneider, “remove a weight from their shoulders.”
The Texas Rangers desperately needed the week off that would come from clinching the AL West to give a respite to a rotation that just placed another starter — Jon Gray — on the injured list. They also have what is the worst bullpen in the post-season.
The Blue Jays get their reset, which is why I like them to beat the Minnesota Twins. The Rangers choked away the AL West title and a bye Sunday after tearing up their clubhouse on Saturday following a playoff-clinching win – the type of hubris you wouldn’t expect from a team managed by a guy like Bruce Bochy, who has three World Series rings. They’re one-and-done in my mind as the Rangers face the Tampa Bay Rays.
My gut tells me a lot of folks are reading way too much into the Twins’ post-season record. True, they’ve lost 18 consecutive post-season games going back to Oct, 5, 2004. Truer still: 13 of them have come at the hands of the New York Yankees, three against the Oakland Athletics and two against the Houston Astros in 2020. There’s been enough turnover since 2020 that it ain’t a ‘thing,’ in other words – although as Hall of Famer and former Twins manager Paul Molitor told us Monday on Blair & Barker: lose Game 1 and the Twins players do become part of that streak, and part of the resulting narrative.
At any rate, here are five players who I think will have out-sized roles in the wild-card round – and one Canadian rookie who will get his first taste of the post-season.
Randy Arozarena, LF, Rays
Well, it’s that time, isn’t it? Even with a 1-for-9 disappearing act in 2022’s wild-card loss to the Cleveland Guardians, Arozarena is still a lifetime .333 hitter over 31 playoff games with 11 home runs and a 1.121 OPS.
He had a quiet September and sustained a quadriceps injury that might explain a .160 average in the final two weeks of the regular season, but there are few players in the game who are more comfortable under the bright lights.
Brandon Belt, DH/1B, Blue Jays
I’m not sure what it says that Belt is on this list, just as I’m not sure whether it says anything good that he emerged as such a pivotal offensive figure for the Blue Jays. But he clearly has, witness Schneider’s statement that the organization was waiting to be certain about Belt’s heath before re-arranging his lineup to move Bo Bichette into the cleanup spot.
Despite promising signs from the rest of the order this weekend, Schneider’s lineup will still be top heavy with Belt featuring at the top against Twins righties Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray. Yes, George Springer is getting paid a ton of money to be a star in the post-season. Yes, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., can add some substance to a season of empty calories. Yes, Bichette is the Blue Jay’s best all-around player … but Belt has assumed an outsized role.
I don’t like it. I don’t get it. But that’s where we are and I don’t see why things should change now.
Jhoan Duran, RP, Twins
While the Blue Jays have made an organizational decision to have Jordan Romano and Jordan Hicks share closer responsibilities – giving us all a choice of two roller-coasters to ride in late innings – the Twins will roll out Duran with his hybrid splitter/sinker and 100 m.p.h.-plus velocity.
While the overall numbers are kind of ‘meh,’ the Twins did a nice job of overhauling their bullpen in-season. If the games stay close, Duran has plenty of kryptonite for the Blue Jays.
Kevin Gausman, SP, Blue Jays
Through all the transitions Gausman has made in his 11-year, 298-game career, one thing has been constant: the Twins have been a handful. He has a 1-4 record and 6.35 ERA in 11 outings against the Twins and has had some of his worst starts against them since joining the Blue Jays.
“If it’s low, let it go. If it’s high, let it fly,” is the baseball axiom that best describes the approach most teams use against pitchers who profile in the manner of Gausman, but the Twins seem to have gone beyond that — and there are those in the Blue Jays organization who believe the Twins have some kind of “tell” on Gausman.
Last season, he used the word “flabbergasted” to describe their ability to lay off his split-fingered pitch. His results were better in two starts this season but the Twins still drove up his pitch counts to 101 in 4 2/3 innings and 106 in 5 1/3.
He’ll be on extra rest, which means Game 1 could be an early test for Schneider, who acknowledged he erred in removing Gausman too early in that Game 2 wild-card meltdown to the Seattle Mariners last year.
Will he keep the faith with his ace if things start to go pear-shaped? His early velocity will be telling.
Edouard Julien, 2B, Twins
Just being born in Quebec City wasn’t enough to make this list – although it didn’t hurt. The rookie’s numbers tumbled after he announced his arrival in the big leagues with a .369 July average, but he had the lowest chase rate in the majors and, was an above average offensive player (127 wRC+) and played improved defence.
That latter aspect of his game could prove vital since the health concerns surrounding Royce Lewis (Grade 1-plus hamstring strain) could force Lewis to primarily DH, moving Jorge Polanco to play third base, and thereby impacting the ability of the Twins to make a late-game defensive switch.
In addition to Lewis, the Twins have a long-running injury concern with shortstop Carlos Correa (recurring plantar fasciitis.)
Julien had a low-key excellent World Baseball Classic for Canada, leading the competition in OPS, and while the playoffs are something else entirely it will still be fun to see how he adapts. He’s a lefty swinger with platoon issues, facing a team whose top three starters have allowed 72 homers, 48 of them to lefties.
Corey Seager, SS, Rangers
You have to reach to come up with a Rangers pitcher who will realistically be a difference-maker in this series. Nathan Eovaldi has the pedigree, but he’s been shaky down the stretch and is always a health concern. Jordan Montgomery … Martin Perez … I mean, the fact is the Rangers are likely one-and-done in 2023 unless their hitters club the living hell out of the Rays.
Seager’s been a beast this season, finishing second in the AL in hitting, slugging and OPS. This is a series featuring the AL’s two best offences but only one guy who was named World Series MVP In 2020 when they last met in the post-season. That would be Seager, who hit .400 for the Los Angeles Dodgers against the Rays after winning the National League Division Series MVP.
BLAIR’S PICKS
Toronto def. Minnesota 2-1.
Tampa Bay def. Texas 2-0.
