In your heart, you know he’s right — right?
Toronto Blue Jays president and chief executive officer Mark Shapiro was hardly flaunting baseball orthodoxy this week when he said it takes more than one season to analyze a trade in response to a question about Gabriel Moreno’s emergence with the Arizona Diamondbacks. That deal, of course, did not happen in a vacuum: Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., were traded for Daulton Varsho in a bid to increase the Blue Jays outfield defence and add a little more balance to a lineup that was right-handed dominant.
Run prevention is — let’s face it — boring as all get out. But on balance, the trade delivered handsomely on the defensive side — and will likely be even more significant if Varsho ends up being the everyday centre-fielder next season. Offensively? It would have looked a great deal better had Danny Jansen stayed healthy and Alejandro Kirk not fallen off the edge of the earth.
Truthfully?
In a perfect world, the Blue Jays would have ended up moving Kirk and hanging on to Moreno. But like I always say: the true value of a player is what the other team is willing to give up to get him. There’s no indication that the Diamondbacks or anybody else wanted Kirk and, well, do you blame them?
Moreno will very much be front and centre when the best-of-seven National League Championship Series between the Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies opens Monday night at Citizens Bank Park, not just because he has put together a solid post-season — terrific defence and an OPS of 1.107 based largely on three home runs (all with two strikes,) his four hits in five games — but because for the next week or so we’ll get to see him head to head against J.T. Realmuto, who is still widely-regarded as the best all-around catcher in the game.
Moreno, who led all catchers in defensive bWAR — and hit .313 in the second half en route to posting a .284 average second only to that of Willson Contreras — became only the third catcher aged 23 or younger to homer in multiple post-season games, joining Johnny Bench, Yadier Molina and Brian McCann.
Moreno’s 20 defensive runs saved were tops among catchers despite the fact that 13 more backstops had more innings behind the plate.
“It’s obvious to the common fan, to the person sitting in their living room or in their basement pounding the keyboard and finding out about the Arizona Diamondbacks that Gabby Moreno is a huge piece of the puzzle for us,” manager Torey Lovullo said, ahead of the Diamondbacks third-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers. “You break it down inside of what I get to see every day. It’s about preparation offensively, it’s about game-planning, counter-punching the pitcher, about being ready and changing his compass and his approach every single pitch, and then not missing having an impact at bat.
“And he’s been an unbelievable addition to this organization. We’d not be where we are without him, for sure.”
Moreno was struck on the hand in Game 3 of the Dodgers series when Chris Taylor fouled off a bunt. X-rays were negative but Moreno’s health is a matter of significance going into this series — as much, maybe, as concerns that get raised any time Bryce Harper reaches into the basepath for a ball — because these teams love to run. The Phillies are 9-for-10 in stolen bases this post-season (7-for-8 against the Atlanta Braves) with six different players swiping bags led by Trea Turner’s 4-for-4 playoffs. The Diamondbacks, who were second in the Majors during the regular season with 166 stolen bases, successfully stole five out of six bases in sending the Dodgers into early preparation mode for their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani.
Moreno’s caught-stealing percentage of 39 per cent was the best in the Majors. His game-calling and steadiness have become a hallmark of the Diamondbacks post-season. How he navigates the growing spotlight and pressure — not to mention the communication issues that will be presented by a raucous Philly crowd — will in no small measure determine whether this Diamondbacks run continues. And while it ought not to be the final determinant in whether the Jays-Diamondbacks trade is judged a flop from the Toronto point of view, damned if it won’t contribute.
With that, here’s our Six Players to Watch in the NLCS.
Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks do a lot of things well as a team, but one thing they’ve had difficulty with is handling two-seam fastballs — or, for that matter, most pitches low in the zone. They’ll see a steady diet from the likes of Zack Wheeler, Gregory Soto, and Jose Alvarado. Carroll, and to a certain degree, Ketel Marte are outliers, in fact, Carroll’s offensive numbers on sinkers are his best against any pitch. So that profile figures to be even more important — never mind that the quality and depth of pitching the Diamondbacks will face in this series is far superior to that of the Milwaukee Brewers and Dodgers.
Safe to say less is known about the Diamondbacks than any of the teams left in the post-season, but with the expected emphasis on baserunning in this series, Carroll’s status as the fourth rookie since 1909 to steal 50 bags in their age-22 season or younger should be spotlighted. Hanley Ramirez (2006), Tim Raines (71 steals in 1981!) and Donie Bush of the 1909 Detroit Tigers are the others…
Zac Gallen, SP, Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks told everybody that they piped in crowd noise during their pre-series workouts at home and, well, I don’t know if I’m a big fan of advertising you’re concerned about the crowd or their impact on Pitchcom. But it is a sign that the Diamondbacks know they’re about to face a vastly different environment in Philly compared to their first two series.
The numbers tell the tale: the Phillies are 26-11 at home in the post-season since the park opened in 2002 and are 10-2 in the past two post-seasons, with a run differential of plus-40 in that time. The Diamondbacks won two of three regular-season games at Citizens Bank this season — the loss came on a walk-off in a solid 5 2/3 innings start by Gallen, who was second in the NL with 17 wins, third with a 1.12 WHIP and 220 strikeouts, and had the third best fWAR (5.2). He’s been OK in his two post-season starts in 2023, but the ball’s been in play a great deal (eight strikeouts in 47 at-bats, with 34 balls in the air) and he’s walked three.
Both the Brewers and Dodgers laid off pitches outside the zone. Small sample sizes and all that, but notable, nonetheless. The NLCS schedule presents a challenge for Lovullo because with off days only after Games 2 and 5, he will have to find a fourth starter to go along with Gallen, Game 2 starter Merrill Kelly and Game 3’s rookie Brandon Pfaadt. Lovullo has said Pfaadt and whoever goes in Game 4 will face between 14-18 batters. Whether the Diamondbacks win in Game 1, Gallen’s ability to stay in the moment could either set up or blow up things for Lovullo. Gallen’s from New Jersey and been to Phillies games as a fan. Can’t hurt…
Andrew Saalfrank, RP, Diamondbacks
Unsexy and maybe a bit of a reach, but if the Diamondbacks starters can keep these games close, it’s not inconceivable that lefty relievers Saalfrank and Joe Mantiply find themselves pitching in key situations against the likes of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies bullpen is deeper and has higher velocity — but Arizona’s relievers posted a 1.99 ERA in the last two weeks of the regular season and were first among MLB bullpens since Sept. 5 in out percentage and second with an opponents average (.191).
Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel pitch at the ends of the bullpen, former Blue Jay Miguel Castro led the bullpen in strikeouts but Saalfrank has pushed his way into Lovullo’s circle of trust after making his MLB debut on Sept. 5, allowing no extra-base hits in 11 2/3 innings while yielding just one hit to a lefty during that time. With Lovullo forecasting aggressive bullpen use with just two established starters, Saalfrank and Mantiply will pop up in key situations — such as Game 2 of the wild-card series when Saalfrank induced a pair of groundouts with the bases loaded…
J.T. Realmuto, C, Phillies
Realmuto’s defence regressed a smidgen this season and his bWAR cratered from 2022’s lofty figure, but his average pop time is still superior — better, in fact, than that of Moreno and among the best of his career. We’ve already talked about how the basepaths could be chaotic regardless of who wins this series, and Realmuto will have his hands full especially once manager Rob Thomson starts dipping into this bullpen.
“Throughout most of the season we didn’t do enough as far as changing up our times, being a little faster to the plate, back-picking guys – stuff like that,” Realmuto said Sunday. “It was kind of costing us some games in September, so we finally started to pay more attention to it.”
Realmuto is a power threat, with seven extra-base hits against pitchers who will be on the Diamondbacks staff. Oddly for a Phillies hitter, Realmuto had a massive home/road split in OPS this season — .576 at Citizens Bank Park and .951 on the road.
Ranger Suarez, SP, Phillies
There might not be as much separation as you might think between these teams’ starters in Game 1 and 2 but when that third start rolls around the underrated Suarez gives Phillies manager Thomson a sizable advantage. Suarez is low-key money in the post-season, with a 0.857 WHIP and 1.16 ERA in seven post-season appearances and an ability to pop up in the bullpen if needed. The Phillies don’t lose when he pitches in the post-season. Seriously. They’re 7-0 in those games and I know this is silly but only Sandy Koufax and Christy Mathewson have lower playoff ERAs among pitchers with a minimum five starts. But keep an eye on Ketel Marte and Christian Walker: they’ve given him trouble. Suarez went just five innings in the clinching win over the Braves and Thomson acknowledged he’d considered giving him a longer leash…
Trea Turner, SS, Phillies
So far so good for the Phillies’ major off-season acquisition, who is one of five players on the team with a nine-figure contract. He has a hit in all six of his post-season games and is the first Phillies player to have at least 12 hits in his first six playoff games and the first player in franchise history with a four-hit game. Of his 12 hits, half have been for extra bases.
“Superstar players are going to show up,” Bryce Harper said after Turner’s four-hit game helped eliminate the Atlanta Braves. “And he’s one of those guys.” Much has been made of how Turner’s season turned around after he received a pair of standing ovations at home early in August — and he has hit 18 homers and batted .355 in 54 games since then — but Turner has pointed to a late-night hitting cage session on Aug. 2 after an 0-for-5 and sloppy game in the field in a 9-8 loss to the Miami Marlins. “I don’t know if I was punishing myself or more like getting anger out or finding solutions – it was probably more that, just finding solutions,” he told MLB.com. Whatever it was … it’s still working.
JEFF BLAIR’S PICK: Philadelphia def. Arizona 4-2.
