Week 9 in the NFL began with the Pittsburgh Steelers pulling out a comeback win Thursday at home against the Tennessee Titans to improve to 5-3 and remain a relevant factor in the competitive AFC North.
The tight AFC playoff race will stay firmly in the spotlight this weekend with two heavyweight AFC matchups bookending a solid slate of Sunday action that includes an anticipated NFC East showdown between well-rounded contenders.
Despite a handful of likely playoff teams — the San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars … oh, and the Denver Broncos — being on bye, Week 9 is one of the better offerings, on paper, we’ve had so far this season.
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SPREADS & TOTALS
– MIA (+1.5) at KC (-1.5) | O/U: 50.5 (9:30 a.m. ET in Frankfurt, Germany)
– MIN (+3.5) at ATL (-3.5) | O/U: 37.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– ARI (+8.5) at CLE (-8.5) | O/U: 38.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– LAR (+3.0) at GB (-3.0) | O/U: 38.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– WAS (+2.5) at NE (-2.5) | O/U: 40.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– CHI (+8.5) at NO (-8.5) | O/U: 41.0 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– SEA (+5.5) at BAL (-5.5) | O/U: 44.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– TB (+3.0) at HOU (-3.0) | O/U: 40.0 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– IND (-2.5) at CAR (+2.5) | O/U: 43.5 (4:05 p.m. ET)
– NYG (+1.5) at LV (-1.5) | O/U: 37.5 (4:25 p.m. ET)
– DAL (+3.0) at PHI (-3.0) | O/U: 46.5 (4:25 p.m. ET)
– BUF (+1.5) at CIN (-1.5) | O/U: 50.5 (8:20 p.m. ET)
– LAC (-3.5) at NYJ (+3.5) | O/U: 40.5 (8:15 p.m. ET*Monday)
Unders are hitting at just shy of 60 per cent this season, and we’ve got a doozy for unders bettors in the early afternoon. The Vikings and Falcons are a combined 13-3 on unders so far this season and have the lowest total of the week alongside Giants-Raiders.
Lamar Jackson has been nearly unbeatable when playing teams from the NFC since he entered the league in 2018, which can be a handy note for bettors, but don’t remind Jackson of it whatever you do.
PROP WATCH: A.J. BROWN VS. COWBOYS DEFENSIVE BACKS
Dominant Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown broke Calvin Johnson’s NFL record for the longest streak of consecutive games with 125 or more receiving yards. Brown’s current streak is six games in a row with at least 127 receiving yards. The Dallas defence is allowing the third-fewest yards of offence per game (287.4) and the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (178.6). Whoever attempts to cover Brown will have their hands full on Sunday.
Brown’s prop lines vs. Cowboys via Bet365:
Total receiving yards: Over 83.5 (-110) | Under 83.5 (-110)
Total receptions: Over 5.5 (-160) | Under 5.5 (+130)
Longest reception: Over 27.5 (-115) | Under 27.5 (-115)
Anytime touchdown +110 | two or more TDs +650 | three or more TDs +3000
First quarter TD +700 | first half TD +275 | first team TD +375
Brown had decent outings against Dallas in his first year with the Eagles in 2022. He posted five catches for 67 yards and a touchdown in a Week 6 home win then hauled in six catches for 103 scoreless yards in a Week 16 road loss.
He has caught 49 of his 67 targets for 831 yards and five touchdowns on his current six-game record streak with at least six catches and at least eight targets in each of those games.
WEEK 9 STORYLINES TO FOLLOW
Kansas City’s loss is Germany’s gain: Those with Chiefs season tickets probably don’t love the fact the team’s scheduled Week 9 home game against Tyreek Hill and the Miami Dolphins isn’t taking place at Arrowhead Stadium. The NFL’s 2023 International Series resumes this week and fans in Frankfurt, Germany, will be treated to a clash of the defending Super Bowl champs and one of the most dynamic offensive teams in the league.
Patrick Mahomes has historically fared well when going up against current Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Mahomes and the Chiefs were undefeated against Fangio during his three-year stint with AFC West rival Denver from 2019-2021.
One x-factor those Chiefs teams had against Fangio that the current Chiefs do not is Hill. The Dolphins speedy star receiver will be facing his former team for the first time. Hill was a Pro Bowl selection in all six seasons he spent with Kansas City and was an All-Pro thrice. He earned both of those distinctions in his first season with Miami in 2022 and is well on his way to another All-Pro/Pro Bowl season in his second year under Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel.
Bills and Bengals meet in playoff rematch: The other huge AFC matchup this week is the Sunday nighter between Cincinnati and Buffalo. The last time these teams met was in January when the Bengals eliminated the Bills thanks to a 27-10 playoff win in which the Bengals held Josh Allen and the Buffalo offence in check while Joes Burrow and Mixon led the way for the Bengals.
Buffalo has been inconsistent the past month while the Bengals appear to have turned things around after losing three of their first four games. Could Sunday’s game resemble a January playoff contest?
Does Dak continue dominating Philly? The clear main event of the late Sunday slate is Cowboys-Eagles where Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott can improve to 9-3 lifetime against the Eagles. Prescott hasn’t lost to the Eagles since 2019, and the Cowboys have scored at least 40 points in each of Prescott’s last three starts against these NFC East rivals. He threw for 337 and three TDs in a 40-34 win last December, adding 41 rushing yards that game, and he combined for eight touchdowns with zero turnovers in two games against Philadelphia in 2021 which Dallas won by a combined score of 92-47.
Will the Raiders show any improvements after coaching change? Las Vegas made major changes to its staff this week with Mark Davis firing head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler in an effort to change the culture around this struggling 3-5 club coming off back-to-back two-score losses to the Bears and Lions. Can Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce give this team a spark?
Expectations for both clubs should be relatively low this week considering the Giants rank 32nd in the NFL averaging 267.9 offensive yards per game and the Raiders are 31st at 268.3 yards per game. Both teams allow 23.4 points against per game. New York ranks last in points per game, scoring an average of 11.9 points weekly. Las Vegas ranks 30th with 15.8 points per game and last in team rushing yards at just 70 per game.
Fallout from trade deadline deals: A handful of players will be donning new uniforms this week after being traded ahead of this week’s deadline. Montez Sweat is set to make his Bears debut after Chicago sent a 2024 second-round pick to Washington for the talented edge rusher who is tied for eighth in the league with 6.5 sacks. Sweat’s former Commanders teammate Chase Young won’t debut with his new team until next week when the 49ers come off a bye to face the Jags. Seattle also beefed up their defensive line by adding Leonard Williams, who’ll debut against the Ravens, and the Lions added another potential offensive weapon in former Browns WR Donovan Peoples-Jones.
The Minnesota-Atlanta game will feature two teams that’ll look rather different than they each did one week ago. The Vikings lost Kirk Cousins to injury, traded guard Ezra Cleveland to Jacksonville and brought in QB Josh Dobbs from Arizona. Dobbs will back up rookie fifth-round pick Jaren Hall this week at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta added Kentavius Street from the Eagles to soften the blow of losing Grady Jarrett to a knee injury. Also, Taylor Heineke will get his first start with the Falcons one week after relieving Desmond Ridder of duties midway through their Week 8 loss to Tennessee.
(Team betting lines and totals via Covers, player props via Bet365 as of Friday and subject to change)
