Happy Thanksgiving to all of this blog’s American readership; hope the turducken (or tofurkey) tastes great.
Many NHL fans use today’s standings at U.S. Thanksgiving as the barometer of who will make the playoffs and who won’t. I go by who stands where after games on Nov. 1, so it’s not as important to me. What I do check is my list of who I think can win the Stanley Cup.
At the start of the season, that was: Carolina, Colorado, Dallas, Edmonton, New Jersey, Tampa Bay, Toronto and Vegas.
Forty-five days into the season, four remain: Carolina, Colorado, Dallas and Vegas. The Hurricanes haven’t played great, but they’ll figure it out. Edmonton’s removal is self-explanatory. New Jersey and Toronto don’t defend yet as well as you need to, while Tampa’s going to need depth.
I’ve added four new teams: Boston, Florida, Los Angeles and the New York Rangers. The Bruins are nothing if not consistent, seemingly always in the right places, aided by a Jeremy Swayman-Linus Ullmark goaltending heater. The average NHL save percentage is .902. Swayman’s at .933, and Ullmark is one point lower. As of last Saturday, Swayman had given up exactly one “outside” goal all season. You’re not going to lose much with that.
The Panthers don’t get enough credit for how well they played without Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour, controlling offensive-zone time as well as anyone in the NHL. The Kings are strong and structured. One thing about Cam Talbot: Minnesota GM Bill Guerin signed him to a three-year contract in 2020 because his analytics staff indicated the goalie would be fine in their kind of system.
Talbot has been dynamite to start the season. We’ll see how the Kings play this, but that’s something I’ve never forgotten.
My Rangers pick met with some scepticism, with a few sources questioning how good they are five-on-five. New York’s got the best special-teams figure in the NHL (power play + penalty kill) at 116.1, but it’s not like their even-strength numbers are terrible. As Bill Parcells once said, “You are what your record says you are.”
My national bias means I also rank “The Best Canadian Hope.” That’s Vancouver. I don’t yet have them on my “Can win the Cup” list at this time. But, as someone who hopes to cover a Canadian Cup winner before Sportsnet fires my sorry ass, I want to see them show it. Their best players have been consistently great, and you need that to win.
So, that’s my group. Don’t get mad, it’s a holiday.
32 THOUGHTS
1. Don’t want to guess about Corey Perry. He definitely was supposed to play Wednesday in Columbus. Nikita Zaitsev got the morning bag skate, so he wasn’t scheduled to dress. He ended up playing, instead. Perry didn’t practise Thursday, and the Blackhawks weren’t revealing anything. Hopefully, it’s nothing serious.
2. There will be a process for John Klingberg, Toronto and the possibility he is shut down for the season. The Maple Leafs historically are very creative with long-term injury use over the years, and not everybody loves to see it. Klingberg’s legitimately injured, believed to be his hip, something he’s dealt with before. Unfortunately, it is worse, and even though he wants to play, he is not expected to return. However, until there is a clearer picture of treatment and road to recovery, they won’t be able to declare him unable to return. Whatever the case, there will be cap flexibility at least in the short-term.
3. Once Patrick Kane gets over his turkey coma, we’ll get a clearer picture of what he’s thinking. He’s done a good job keeping us guessing. Educated dart-throwing: some of the teams he likes (or like him) aren’t perfect fits. Dallas would be an example, with the Stars believed to be prioritizing defence. Kane did talk to Toronto, but again, the Maple Leafs’ priority is on the blueline. Another concern is West travel. We just saw a situation where Klingberg’s problems were exacerbated by a flight from Toronto to Stockholm; there’s no question the Eastern schedule is less taxing. I’ve discussed Florida’s aggressiveness several times, and it seems like an excellent fit. The question here comes down to what contract and lifestyle choices Kane prefers. He is believed to want a multi-year contract (he does not qualify as an over-35 because his birthday came after June 30) at what he considers a fair number. As it stands, the Panthers can’t do that. Buffalo can. So can Detroit. I don’t think it’s impossible Kane goes the one-year path, but multiple sources indicated at the start of this process that was not his preference. Buffalo would be major coup for the organization, and Kane’s put a lot of thought into the Red Wings.
4. The secrecy on Kane makes me think I’m missing something. For one thing, it fits Brad Treliving’s profile that he’d get involved even if not a perfect fit, and he’s not the only GM like that. Given what injuries have done to the Avalanche lineup, I think they’ve pitched. There’ve been rumours and reports about Vegas. (Again, I wonder about Western travel.) No one more secretive than Lou Lamoriello. The Islanders need scoring. No one screams “USA Hockey” more than Lamoriello. It’s is circumstantial evidence, but there’s always something we’re not seeing. I do think Kane needs to believe the team he joins can win, whether this year or in the near future.
5. Wednesday brought much-needed happiness in Columbus, a 7-3 win over Chicago. Adam Fantilli assisted on a Patrik Laine goal. The Blue Jackets have tried them together before, but last night was one of their best (statistical) games. The Johnny Gaudreau-Boone Jenner-Kirill Marchenko line outscored the Blackhawks 3-0 and Zach Werenski — who hadn’t been himself — owned the ice with four assists. During his local media rounds, president of hockey operations John Davidson made it very clear it was the veterans who needed to be much, much better. I don’t have a problem with benching someone, if necessary or deserved. The concern I have with what’s happened is like parenting. When you punish your children, the idea is they learn their lesson and don’t do it again. There’ve been multiple sitdowns in Ohio, and they haven’t had the desired effect. That’s the sign of a deeper problem. They continue to look for a centre. I read and listened to Davidson’s interviews, and he’s going through some of the same things the Oilers are, that dealing from a position of weakness can haunt your franchise for years. The one thing I see happening if this doesn’t turn around is Columbus asking some of its veterans if they prefer to be somewhere else, or want to work with the team to find another home.
6. Equal time: On Monday’s podcast, I said the Blue Jackets have to put Laine in position to be successful. End the experiment at centre. Someone pointed out he did play centre last weekend against Philadelphia right before being benched (it didn’t go well), but played wing for several games prior to that. He was struggling there, too.
7. Things are so crazy around Edmonton right now that someone tried to convince me Wednesday night Antti Raanta was pulled after the first period by Carolina because he was getting traded to the Oilers. “Is he going to play the third?” I asked. While they decide what to do in goal, it’s clear the defensive issues aren’t fixed. As the organization tries to rescue 2023-24, the 2019 Blues and 2023 Panthers were brought up as those that surged despite awful mid-season scenarios. (At the Sportsnet Christmas party Tuesday night, one producer bet it will take less than 90 points to make the playoffs in the West. I asked if he was related to someone on the team.) While trying to fix what ails them on the ice, the Oilers must deal with one particular perception off of it.
8. While watching the NHL’s successful sojourn to Sweden, I thought about longtime Toronto captain Mats Sundin — who had a high profile during the trip. Sundin had the biblical patience of Job. He wasn’t crazy about dealing with the media every day, but did his duty with little complaint. He wasn’t always thrilled with the questions, letting out a lengthy sigh to signal exasperation. (A FAN 590 producer once edited a five-minute compilation of Sundin’s Greatest Sighs. I almost drove off the road laughing at it.)
There were, however, topics that really bothered him. One was his influence on the roster, or linemates. He really hated the idea that, as captain, he should go to Pat Quinn, or whoever was GM at the time, and demand the Leafs do something. “I don’t do that,” he’d say, very pointedly. One of the few times I saw him really angry was when a story appeared quoting anonymous teammates as saying Jonas Hoglund shouldn’t be on Sundin’s line. Eyes blazing, he angrily pulled the reporter aside, demanding to know who said it. There was no danger of a physical confrontation, but it crossed a line and he was furious. This type of interaction was extremely rare. I remember because it showed what Sundin stood for. Anyway, all of this came back to mind last weekend as Edmonton made its coaching change. There’s a lot of Sundin in Connor McDavid.
9. I don’t profess to know McDavid well, but I know what I see. It’s someone who has extremely high standards for himself, absolutely cannot stand losing — and would despise the idea he’s exerting control over organizational decisions. “I know the narrative out there, but it couldn’t be further from the truth,” he said the day after Jay Woodcroft’s surprise firing.
And it’s not just what he says, its how he says it. You can tell he thinks the idea is ridiculous. I recognize the circumstantial evidence. His former agent, Jeff Jackson, is CEO of hockey operations. His junior coach, Kris Knoblauch, is now behind the bench. If it walks and talks like a duck, it’s a duck. It’s not that easy. You have to recognize the personalities involved. Some people love influencing everything, whether their specific role or not. I’ve seen it in media. Others don’t. “Do Your Job,” like the dynasty Patriots. This is a challenge for Edmonton. Now that people in McDavid’s circle are entering the organization, the theory his influence increases with every new hire grows in the hockeysphere. He’s absolutely going to hate that, and will resent it. McDavid accepted the mantle that comes with captaincy: don’t ask anything of any teammate you wouldn’t do yourself, demand the best of everyone during practice and games. But he’s not comfortable flexing his muscle outside those parameters. The idea that he’d go to management and demand a coaching change? Not his way.
10. Word is that, over the summer, McDavid had some lengthy conversations with the NHL about how he could help with some things. For example. the All-Star skills competition. He was asked for his input on making it better, and spent time working on solutions. It’s expected that only a few players will do most of the competition from now on. The NHL asked him to lead, and he understood the request. That was out of his comfort zone, but he recognized the importance.
Dinner to convince Connor Brown to sign in Edmonton? All good, he’s there, and he’ll pick up the cheque. This is, however, very different than manipulating an organizational flow chart. GM Ken Holland said he asked players what was going wrong. I have no doubt McDavid offered an opinion, starting with some criticism of himself. But a Mutiny on the Bounty? Very, very unlikely. Don’t believe it. Demanding “his own guy?” Not the way he’s wired, even if his former agent made the hire. One of the reasons — if not the major reason — the Oilers made the coaching change is they cannot afford awful results as McDavid and Leon Draisaitl head into the twilights of their contracts.
Draisaitl — eligible for an extension in July — made it very clear before the season: what he loved most about the organization is that everything and everyone is about winning. That’s what he wants, what he craves. And, as long as that’s the focus, he’s good. McDavid is no different. He’s miserable when they lose, and doesn’t try to hide it. He’s not going to like being seen as the Kingmaker, either.
11. Edmonton’s first option in goal is hoping Jack Campbell re-discovers his game in AHL Bakersfield. As one executive likes to say, “You can either solve your problem, or trade your problem. The first method is always better.” After a rough start, (4.36 GAA, .819 save percentage in three games), Campbell had a 30-save shutout Tuesday against Henderson. The Oilers continue to assert they won’t make a deal they regret, while scouting all available options.
12. One GM made a really good point about Edmonton’s trade options. If you want to include your first-round pick in any move you make, you have to put top-of-the-draft protection on it. Eventually, though, you have to make good on it. So you can tie up that selection for years, uncertain when you can use it. If you’re at the top of the standings, you can deal with it. When you’re not, it’s a problem.
13. Montreal and Sam Montembeault continue to discuss an extension (the goaltender is unrestricted this summer). But I’m not sure the Canadiens will wait until the trade deadline.
14. Other stuff to keep an eye on: Despite six goals in 26:03 last Saturday against Dallas (and 14 goals in its last three games), Colorado is looking for scoring depth. All of the injures have the Avalanche concerned they are a bit thin.
15. Sean Walker’s really impressed in Philadelphia. The Flyers have time to figure out what to do with the free-agent-to-be, but if they don’t extend him, there’s going to be plenty of interest.
16. Massive stretch coming up for the Flames. Colorado, Dallas and Vegas twice each in the next 18 days — not to mention Carolina, New Jersey and Vancouver. This will tell everyone (including Calgary) where they stand. After last season, Flames players told the organization Mikael Backlund should have been captain, already. He proved it by asking everyone to cut the drama and focus on hockey. Wednesday’s loss in Nashville was the first game in five Calgary didn’t get a point, going 3-0-1 over that stretch.
17. If and when Calgary decides to move some of their unrestricted-free-agents-to-be, teams are going to want to know if they will allowed to negotiate with potential targets. It’s not unheard-of to offer a 24- or 48-hour window, but not every GM likes to cede control.
18. Backlund isn’t the only person who, in recent months, asked teammates or players to calm the noise or quietly let management know if they wanted to move on. Several Canucks credited Rick Tocchet for the same approach. (I think it was last season.) As he got to know his players, he told them he would put them in positions to succeed, provided they were committed to Vancouver. They liked his honest approach, and clearly responded to it.
19. Apropos of nothing, I’ve never seen anything like Vancouver getting zero power-play time after Josh Manson’s five-minute cross-checking major during Tuesday’s 5-2 Avalanche victory. Manson accused Brock Boeser — who received a minor — of embellishment and it was like the on-ice officials agreed. The Canucks received back-to-back minors, which erased the man-power advantage, although J.T. Miller scored four-on-four. It was super weird. Whatever the case, that was one heck of a game.
20. Very impressive the Canucks had the top three scorers in the NHL — Miller, Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes — after 15 games. It is also a window into the firepower of the 1990s Pittsburgh Penguins. The last time one team had the top three scorers 16 games or later in a season was 1995-96, when Mario Lemieux (156 points), Jaromir Jagr (147) and Ron Francis (119) stood there after 81 games. On the last night of the season, Francis went pointless in a 6-5 loss to Boston, while Joe Sakic had two assists in a 5-4 loss to Los Angeles that allowed him to pass Francis and ruin this narrative. (Winning goalie for the Kings that night: Kelly Hrudey.)
21. Interesting note about Winnipeg: Mark Scheifele’s first assist during last Saturday’s 5-2 win over Arizona was his eighth on a Kyle Connor goal, more than he had all of 2022-23 (seven). Last year, Connor assisted on 18 Scheifele goals. This season, it’s three. So they’ve completely flipped what they — and their opponents — were used to. Never a bad thing to keep people guessing.
22. Global games in Germany next season make sense considering its very possible — if not a certainty — that the February 2025 NHL-run international hockey event may only feature Canada, Finland, Sweden and the United States. There is still some question about the Finns and Swedes getting to play at home. Is there enough time in a week-long event replacing the All-Star Game for that to happen? There was conversation about six teams instead of four, but again, will there be enough time to do it properly? Also: I’m with Luc Robitaille (London) and Auston Matthews (Mexico City) on future Global games. And I do think the NHL heard Matthews loud and clear. Mexico’s been on the radar for some time. Matthews may push it over the line.
23. Watching last year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, Oliver Ekman-Larsson knew there was a chance Vancouver would buy him out. He wasn’t just observing, he was scouting. “I liked the way Florida played,” he said Wednesday morning. “Their defencemen pinched (in the offensive zone), the forwards covered, then you reload. It’s a fun way to play.” Three days after the Panthers were defeated in the Stanley Cup Final, the Canucks informed Ekman-Larsson a buyout would indeed occur. Even before the Panthers called, they were on his radar.
24. Ekman-Larsson refused to say anything negative about his time in the Pacific Northwest, and pooh-poohed the idea he simply wasn’t wired for a white-hot Canadian market. “I know when I’m good, and when I’m not good. I wish it worked out different, but I have nothing bad to say about Vancouver.” What he did say was the injury that ended his season last February turned out to be a blessing in disguise. “Even if it sucked being hurt, the best thing was having time to heal. I was able to skate twice a week in June. It could have been a tough summer, but I used it as extra motivation that I could still play in the league. I thought about being 16, 17 years old, having fun with everything I did on the ice.”
25. Ekman-Larsson wouldn’t say who else he seriously considered, only conceding there were four or five teams. He was a huge part of Florida’s surprising start, so many of us foolishly counting them out with Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour missing the first month of the season. (He laughed when asked if both should be forced to prove themselves on the third pair before taking anyone else’s ice time.) Two of the things he said make a huge difference are the players’ commitment to fitness — “it’s the standard here” — and the pace/compete-level from the moment players showed up in Florida. “Even the captain’s practice two weeks before training camp” had purpose to it, he said. He talked specifically about one training-camp routine, where, after the regular practice, there were battle drills. About 20 seconds against another player, followed by a lap, then rest. Then you’d do it again, with Ekman-Larsson estimating this would repeat six to 10 times depending on the day. “Of course, I picked Gustav Forsling to go against,” he said. “He’s one of the guys in the best shape.” Great start for him, and the Panthers.
26. Watching Anaheim/Florida last week, I can’t say it enough. We need goal-line technology as soon as possible. There is too much at stake. My wife can make her world-famous stew in two hours thanks to the InstaPot. Certainly, we can come up with something that works.
27. There is no way those Seattle/Vegas Winter Classic jerseys appeared on the Utah Jazz and on AEW Wrestling by accident. It’s a smart, smart strategy — but definitely intentional. A Vancouver buddy of mine who loved the old SuperSonics wasn’t thrilled the hated rival Jazz got the opportunity, but it can’t be a coincidence that Ryan Smith, who will be in the NHL ownership community some day, got the reveal.
28. Kyle Okposo played his 1,000th game Nov. 14. There’s a great story about Okposo that really shows what he’s about. In September 2009, his Islanders held their training camp in Saskatoon, following it up with an exhibition in Calgary. Okposo really wanted to meet and talk to Jarome Iginla, a hero of his. It was set up by the two media relations people — Kimber Auerbach (Islanders) and Peter Hanlon (Flames) — after the game. Five minutes into the second period, Okposo, carrying the puck through the neutral zone, was bumped by Nigel Dawes and levelled by Dion Phaneuf. Okposo was stretchered off the ice, leading to a wild scene where long-time minor pro Pascal Morency was suspended 10 games for jumping off the bench to get at Phaneuf.
Thankfully, Okposo was alright, but disappointed the visit to hospital ruined his chance of meeting Iginla. Or so he thought. Iginla ended up waiting an hour postgame for Okposo to return, leading to a meaningful conversation. Okposo never forgot Iginla “paying it forward,” and his desire to reciprocate is a major reason he’s currently captaining the Sabres.
In July 2020, he reached out to Arizona State’s Dominic Garcia when Garcia went public about the racism he’d experienced. “He called me one morning and we talked for 35-40 minutes,” Garcia told Nhl.com’s William Douglas. “He let me speak out, made sure I was OK. We got to know each other a little bit. He said if I need anything, to reach out. He’s really supportive, a really nice guy.” (Douglas reported Okposo also reached out to Buffalo-area youth hockey player Roshaun Brown-Hall in 2019 when Brown-Hall sadly received slurs during a game.) No one who knows Okposo would be surprised by this, but they wanted it to be known. He’s a hugely popular player in the hockey community.
