The upside and downside of Blue Jays’ DH options

After the addition of a super-utility defender with an underwhelming right-handed bat in Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and the re-addition of a Mount Rushmore centre fielder with an underwhelming left-handed bat in Kevin Kiermaier, the Toronto Blue Jays have knocked off some of the low-hanging fruit on their off-season to-do list, augmenting a defensively versatile roster that will allow for a variety of lineup constructions and make a strong bid to defend its 2023 AL Team Gold Glove Award.

It’s a start. But what the club’s still missing, quite obviously, is thump. A power bat that can hit in the middle of the lineup, slug around 25 homers, and drive in the runs the Blue Jays can’t win without no matter how well they pitch and defend.

A fifth of Toronto’s extra-base hits in 2023 came off the bats of Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt — two players the club no longer employs. The pair was also responsible for 22.4 per cent of the team’s walks, an underappreciated service that not only sapped the effectiveness of opposing pitchers as they worked deeper into innings, but gave the rest of the Blue Jays lineup better looks at their strategy and stuff.

It’s fair to expect positive regression in 2024 from young hitters coming off down seasons such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, and, yes, Daulton Varsho. Steamer, an objective projection system, forecasts all three to see increases of greater than 20 points in wRC+. But it will remain difficult to strike a bullish tone on the Blue Jays offence without at least one more substantial addition — two, ideally — capable of compensating for the power and patience lost by the departures of Chapman and Belt.

The good news is Toronto’s roster versatility gives it the option of adding a bat-first player whose primary position is designated hitter. And this winter’s free agent market is rife with positionless power bats who could fill that void. Let’s take a look at the upside and downside of the most appealing options remaining.

All projections via Steamer https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer

Joc Pederson

Upside

Pederson’s production has fluctuated over the last several seasons, as his wRC+ has ranged from 126 in each of 2018 and 2019, down to 86 and 96 in 2020 and 2021, all the way up to 146 in 2022, and back down again to 111 in 2023. But through it all he’s absolutely clobbered baseballs, routinely posting 90th-percentile-or-higher average exit velocities and finishing within the top four per cent of the league in hard-hit rate each of the last two seasons.

The left-handed hitter significantly under-performed his expected statistics in 2023 (the negative difference between his .331 wOBA and .366 xwOBA ranked fourth among qualified hitters) and it stands to reason he’ll be in for better results if he sustains the quality of contact he’s been making. Posting his highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate since 2018 only adds to the positive indicators that Pederson’s due for a meaningful uptick in productivity this season.

Downside

Even with the Giants limiting him to only 204 outfield innings in 2023, Pederson still received below-average marks across the board of advanced defensive metrics. Toronto managed George Springer’s workload with 20 DH days in 2023 and will likely do the same — if not more — this season. Toronto would have to swallow some defensive vulnerability if it wanted both Springer and Pederson in the lineup on those days.

Significant struggles when at a platoon disadvantage (Pederson’s career OPS vs. righties is .834; against lefties, it’s .622) further narrows Pederson’s utility. If it takes $12 million to sign him, would the Blue Jays see value in a player who could make only 400 plate appearances in a healthy season? If the return on that investment is similar to the 0.6 fWAR Pederson produced in 2023, it could end up looking like an overpay.

Rhys Hoskins

Upside

Right up until the moment Hoskins tore an ACL last March, ending his 2023 season before it began, he was one of the game’s most consistent, dependable hitters. He achieved at least a 112 wRC+ in each of his first six big-league seasons, earning a number above 120 in five of them. He’s never finished with fewer than double-digit homers, surpassing 25 on four occasions. He’s posted walk and chase rates among MLB’s 80th percentile or higher five times, demonstrating a keen eye and selectivity that lets him get to the fastballs he barrels to all fields.

If he hadn’t blown out his knee last spring, and had delivered another typically productive season, he likely wouldn’t even be on this list. He’d reside up-market with Cody Bellinger and Chapman, eyeing a nine-figure guarantee after rejecting a qualifying offer from the Phillies. Unfortunately for him, Hoskins’ freak injury has created an attractive buy-low opportunity — one possibility is the Michael Conforto model of a two-year deal with an opt out; another is the Bellinger framework of one year plus an option — for clubs with designated hitter and first base playing time to fill.

Downside

It’s been 15 months since Hoskins last played in a big-league game and it would be understandable if he spent a not-insignificant portion of the 2023 season shaking off the rust. And considering the nature of the injury he’s returning from, plus the fact he measured poorly as a first baseman prior to it, Hoskins’ re-entry to a competitive environment will likely come as a full-time DH.

If he returns quickly to the 120-130 wRC+ range he sat in over his last two seasons, he’ll provide plenty of value on the shorter-term contract he’s likely to sign. But there’s an unignorable risk that Hoskins spends 2024 reacclimating and doesn’t deliver quite the same level of dependable offensive production he was once known for. And considering his underwhelming grades as a defender and baserunner, that would substantially lower his overall impact on the Blue Jays in 2024.

Jorge Soler

Upside

No remaining free agent is projected by Steamer for a higher 2024 OPS than Soler’s .813 and it isn’t hard to see why. His top exit velocities annually rank among the game’s elite barrelers of baseballs, two-thirds of his balls in play last season were hit in the air, and only 15 hitters have launched more homers over the last five seasons than Soler’s 132.

Combine that thump with a career 10.5-per-cent walk rate, and you have a patient, middle-of-the-order bat that can benefit the hitters around him. The only qualified Blue Jays who saw more pitches per plate appearance than Soler last season — Chapman and Belt — no longer play for the team.

Downside

There’s plenty of volatility in Soler’s track record — his standout offensive campaigns in 2019 and 2023 sandwich league-average ones over the three years between. And although he’s yet to turn 32, Soler’s been streaking towards a full-time DH role and could reach that destination on a defensively inclined team such as the Blue Jays. That’s fine if he’s producing the 126 wRC+ he did in 2023 — but what if that number’s closer to the 95 it was in an injury-shortened 2022, or his 100 over a full season in 2021?

Now you have a replacement-level hitter earning somewhere around $15 million and compromising your lineup flexibility. And although he got into 137 games in 2023, Soler’s history of back and oblique issues is a concern for a hitter who swings the bat with such authority.

J.D. Martinez

Upside

If you put aside pandemic-shortened 2020, Martinez has posted at least a 119 wRC+ every season since 2015, surpassing 135 on six occasions. And 2023 was one of them, as Martinez OPS’ed .893, slugged 33 homers, was named an all-star for a third consecutive year, and gave the Dodgers a difficult qualifying offer decision to make.

A bright red Statcast profile suggests that Martinez’s bat is as potent as ever, ranking among the top four per cent of the league in a variety of contact quality metrics. Even if you bake in some quick-twitch deterioration in his age-36 season, Martinez remains as strong a bet as anyone on this list to hit 25 homers — something only one Blue Jay did in 2023. And his well-earned reputation as a culture-setter and defacto assistant hitting coach provides an added benefit to the players he shares a clubhouse with.

Downside

Age has to catch up to Martinez at some point, and Steamer believes 2024 is that year — the system projects him OPS’ing .765 with a 106 wRC+, both significant departures from his 2023 production. There are also durability concerns here after Martinez hit the IL twice in 2023 with back and groin issues.

A career-high 34.4-per-cent whiff rate last season, which led to Martinez striking out in 31.1 per cent of his plate appearances, is another red flag. Of the 168 hitters to make at least 450 plate appearances in 2023, only six struck out more often than Martinez. And considering he’s played only 12 defensive innings over the last two seasons and ranks among the bottom fifth of the league in sprint speed, there isn’t much to fall back on if those whiffs prove a canary in the coal mine and Martinez’s bat suddenly craters.

Justin Turner

Upside

Turner’s riding a decade-long streak as an above-average hitter and coming off a season that saw him OPS .800 while drawing walks at a steady clip and striking out in only 17.6 per cent of his plate appearances, which ranked within the top quarter of the league. This may say more about the 2023 Blue Jays than it does about Turner, but last year he hit more homers (23) than any Toronto hitter not named Vladimir and posted a higher contact rate (84.3 per cent) than any not named Alejandro.

If the club doesn’t bring back Chapman, they’ll likely mix-and-match at third base and Turner could be a part of that. He’s by no means a plus defender, but he’d be playable on the 35-ish days you’d want to use the veteran in the field, which would free up Toronto’s DH spot to rest other players.

Downside

Approaching his 40th birthday in November, Turner might find more in common with Toronto’s trio of hitting coaches — Guillermo Martinez (39), Hunter Mense (39), and Matt Hague (38) — than his new teammates. Age is only a number, but it’s worth noting that only four players in their age-39 season or older made more than 150 plate appearances last year. None of them more than Miguel Cabrera’s 370 on a retirement tour. And none of them OPS’ed better than Joey Votto’s .747.

Turner’s been defying the aging curve in terms of both durability and productivity for several seasons. But when the inevitable happens, it’s likely to happen in a hurry. And there are cautionary indicators if you want to look for them. His production against right-handed pitching has been sliding since 2022; he just posted the lowest barrel rate of his career; and he had a tough time with four-seam fastballs last season, earning a -7 run value against the pitch he’s thrown most often. With the Blue Jays so invested in needing availability and power from this roster spot, Turner’s age makes him a higher-risk proposition than other players on this list.

Brandon Belt

Upside

For the many complaints Blue Jays fans had about the club’s 2023 vintage, Belt was not one of them. He led the team in OPS and wRC+, helped the hitters around him by averaging 4.46 pitches per plate appearance (tops in MLB among those who went to the plate at least 100 times), and was a favourite of teammates and fans alike for his steady demeanour and cheeky personality.

Even at 35, Belt still produces great contact, matching his career-high maximum exit velocity last season at just shy of 110 m.p.h. while running a 91st-percentile barrel rate. And his swing decisions are as sound as ever, as evidenced by chase and walk rates that ranked within the top four per cent of MLB hitters. Stubbornly refusing to expand the zone while punishing the mistakes he earns is an approach that ought to let Belt continue providing underappreciated offensive impact in 2024.

Downside

The Blue Jays showed little faith in Belt against left-handed pitching in 2023, sending him to the plate only 39 times against that side of the platoon. That inherently limits how much utility Belt could provide, as would a trip or two to the IL (Belt did separate stints last season with hamstring and back issues) — a fair expectation given his physical track record. It means that rather than being Toronto’s primary designated hitter, Belt would likely need to be part of a platoon.

Belt also set a career high with a Gallo-ian 34.9-per-cent strikeout rate in 2023, indicating that when his power and contact skills inevitably go things could get ugly in a hurry. We’ve already seen Belt susceptible to four-seam fastballs — he had a -5 run value against the pitch in 2022 after a 0 in 2021. Belt fared better against heaters last season (+2 run value vs. four-seamers; +7 vs. sinkers) but his performance in that regard bears monitoring, because as whiffs increase and success against velocity wanes, it becomes near impossible to survive at the game’s highest level.

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