TORONTO – Even if the Toronto Blue Jays probably aren’t headed for a transformative off-season of their own, there are still a lot of ways this winter could play out.
Not only are the Blue Jays looking for upgrades, but there’s a lot of free agent talent still out there and how much of it lands in the American League East will shape the AL post-season picture as a whole. Viewed through that lens, the next best thing to signing stars is seeing them land on irrelevant NL teams à la Kris Bryant to the Rockies.
Complicating matters, six of the nine free agents listed below share an agent, the outspoken Scott Boras, who was full of praise for the Blue Jays’ off-season approach at the MLB Winter Meetings in Nashville.
“Good for them,” he said in December. “Their bird feeder has arrived and they’re spreading their seeds throughout Canada.”
Whether Boras would still be so full of praise six weeks later is another question, but he certainly benefits from the appearance that the Blue Jays are involved – maybe even heavily involved – on some of his players. In the case of Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez and Matt Chapman, there are still clear fits on this roster.
It’s harder to see a scenario where Bellinger comes to Toronto, and despite recent reporting around Blake Snell, it’s never seemed realistic that the Blue Jays would be leading suitors for him or Jordan Montgomery at their current asking prices. But would Boras place Hoskins or Martinez with the Blue Jays now, knowing that could compromise the leverage of Chapman and Bellinger? Tactically, the Boras Corporation faces some interesting decisions.
And regardless of where these top remaining free agents land, there will be significant ramifications for the Blue Jays. Here’s a speculative look ahead at where the top nine remaining players could land, and what that would mean in Toronto:
Cody Bellinger, OF/1B
Best case for Blue Jays: He signs with a National League team like the Cubs and enjoys success far from the Blue Jays.
Worst case for Blue Jays: They shift course, decide Bellinger’s worth a franchise record deal after all and sign him for $217 million over seven years only to see him perform closer to his 2021-22 numbers (.611 OPS in 900 plate appearances).
Realistic outcome: The stalemate between Boras and the Cubs eventually ends with a lucrative, long-term deal for Bellinger in Chicago.
Blake Snell, SP
Best case for Blue Jays: The Giants sign Snell to a massive deal that keeps him out of the American League for a long time.
Worst case for Blue Jays: The Orioles find some money and sign Snell, who continues performing at an elite level for five-plus years while Baltimore stacks up division titles.
Realistic outcome: The Angels haven’t done much yet, and they could certainly use the rotation help. Snell probably fits better on a team that’s already destined for October, but if the Yankees and Giants are done augmenting their respective rotations, that complicates Boras’ job. On paper, the Red Sox could be another fit here, and that wouldn’t be good for the Blue Jays either.
Matt Chapman, 3B
Best case for Blue Jays: Either he signs with a National League team, allowing the Blue Jays to recoup a compensatory draft pick next summer, or there’s another scenario executives with other teams could see playing out: the Cubs sign Bellinger, the Giants call it an off-season and it’s the Blue Jays who can bring Chapman back at a more modest price.
Worst case for Blue Jays: True to form, Boras waits. A springtime injury occurs – DJ LeMahieu severely pulls a hamstring, for instance – and Chapman ends up in New York, augmenting the Yankees’ roster and stealing a few doubles from the Blue Jays in big moments.
Realistic outcome: The Giants sign Chapman to a long-term deal, during the course of which he puts together a few more 3-WAR seasons at third base.
Jordan Montgomery, SP
Best case for Blue Jays: The Angels sign Montgomery, keeping him away from the AL East and perhaps even out of the playoff picture.
Worst case for Blue Jays: Montgomery signs with the Red Sox, where he joins Lucas Giolito atop Boston’s new-look rotation and helps push for a wild-card spot.
Realistic outcome: Since the defending champion Rangers are hesitant to spend this winter, the Blue Jays’ best-case scenario may also be realistic. The Angels seem like a legitimate candidate to land Montgomery.
Josh Hader, RP
Best case for Blue Jays: The last time a prominent CAA Sports client signed with the Dodgers, it was painful for the Blue Jays. But where Shohei Ohtani was a legitimate target for the Jays, Hader’s never been a priority. All they need this time is to keep Hader as far away as possible, and a deal with the Dodgers would accomplish that goal.
Worst case for Blue Jays: Sensing an opportunity, the Yankees push for Hader, and he leads the American League in saves over the course of the next five years.
Realistic outcome: The Dodgers cap off an incredible off-season by signing Hader to a back-loaded deal.
Jorge Soler, OF/DH
Best case for Blue Jays: Intent on making a splash, the Red Sox push for Soler, landing him on a lucrative three-year deal that backfires when Soler’s strikeout rate spikes and his defence regresses.
Worst case for Blue Jays: They’re the ones who sign Soler for three years, but he’s inconsistent offensively while blocking others from the DH spot. In other words, it’s Kendrys Morales 2.0.
Realistic outcome: The Red Sox sign Soler for $34 million over two years. The MVP Sports client has one monster season and one year where it all goes sideways.
J.D. Martinez, DH
Best case for Blue Jays: They sign Martinez for one year, and he hits 35 home runs as the Toronto cleanup hitter. In the post-season, he builds on a track record that already includes 10 home runs and a .974 OPS in October.
Worst case for Blue Jays: Martinez signs with Arizona and hits 35 home runs on a one-year deal while the Blue Jays’ designated hitter options struggle.
Realistic outcome: The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks both seem like realistic fits for Martinez.
Rhys Hoskins, 1B
Best case for Blue Jays: They sign Hoskins to a two-year deal with an opt-out after 2024. He bounces back from his ACL injury, producing from the cleanup spot all season and into October before opting out and joining Pete Alonso on the free agent market next winter.
Worst case for Blue Jays: The Cubs outbid the Blue Jays for Hoskins, securing his services on the way to a 30-homer, 120 OPS+ season that far outpaces what the Blue Jays get internally.
Realistic outcome: The Blue Jays, Cubs and Rangers all seem like realistic fits for Hoskins.
Joc Pederson, OF
Best case for Blue Jays: After joining the Blue Jays on a one-year deal, Pederson bats cleanup against right-handed pitching on his way to 25 home runs and an .875 OPS. In the playoffs, the homers keep coming.
Worst case for Blue Jays: The downside here is relatively low, since Pederson seems unlikely to end up in the AL East if he doesn’t land in Toronto, but seeing him have a monster year for the Angels or Diamondbacks probably wouldn’t feel great.
Realistic outcome: The Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and Angels all seem like realistic fits for Pederson, an Excel Sports client.
