Surprises are one of those things in life that tend to lump people into two categories: Love ’em or hate ’em.
Even if you’re in the former group, you could understand why some are in the latter. I mean, the idea of coming home, flicking on the lights and having 35 people shout a word — any word — at you is in some way inherently terrifying.
And, to be sure, not all surprises in the NHL have been positive this year. I mean, Alex Ovechkin is on pace for 15 goals.
That said, we’re leaning into the good surprises in this edition of the Power Rankings. That could be an unexpected bounce-back, a bottom-six guy making a leap or a star player somehow finding another level.
So, with the all-star break now just a week away, here’s a look at 32 teams’ surprise smile.
1. Vancouver Canucks (32-11-5) Brock Boeser’s 46-goal pace is absolutely in the running for surprise story of the season. How long before the conversation shifts to the fact he can become a UFA 18 months from now?
2. Boston Bruins (29-9-9) We knew David Pastrnak was a stud, but the fact he could surpass last year’s 113 points without the two centres — Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci — he’s been riding shotgun with for his entire career is remarkable.
3. Edmonton Oilers (27-15-1) There’s a couple high-end guys you could make a case for in Edmonton. Zach Hyman just keeps exploding through his perceived ceilings and might score 55 goals this year after setting a new career best with 36 last season. And Evan Bouchard was a 40-point defenceman the past two years who’s suddenly playing at an 80-point clip after a monster playoff last spring. At the other end of the lineup, 27-year-old Warren Foegele could wind up with 50 points this year after previously never exceeding 30.
4. Winnipeg Jets (30-11-5) Gabe Vilardi is having a hard time staying in the lineup, but he’s scoring at a 35-goal pace in 23 outings when he suits up. That would seem to be at least a bit beyond the perceived best-case scenario when Winnipeg acquired him last summer.
5. Colorado Avalanche (31-14-3) We knew there was some potential for a bounce-back when Jonathan Drouin signed a dirt-cheap deal to join his old major junior pal Nathan MacKinnon in Colorado. It took a while, but the returns look fantastic now. Drouin has 19 points in his past 20 outings. At minus-1, he’s got a good chance to finish as a plus player for the first time in a full season since he was a 19-year-old rookie with Tampa 10 years ago.
6. Dallas Stars (28-13-6) Tyler Seguin hasn’t been a 30-goal scorer in five years. The guy who turns 32 next week has a great chance to hit that number this season.
7. Florida Panthers (29-14-4) Sam Reinhart is one of the biggest stories in the league. He’s already eclipsed his previous career high of 33 goals and is on pace for a whopping 61 ahead of potentially hitting the open market this summer as a 28-year-old UFA. Also, don’t sleep on Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who might hit 40 points for the first time since 2018-19.
8. Carolina Hurricanes (26-15-5) Stefan Noesen is tracking the first 20-goal season of his career and 50 points is in play for the 30-year-old journeyman who is on Carolina’s second line right now.
9. New York Rangers (29-15-3) Vincent Trocheck has flirted with point-per-game production in the past, but he’s got just one 70-point season on the books and it was way back in 2017-18 when he was 24 years old. Now 30, Trocheck is on pace for a career-best 79 in his second season with the Blueshirts.
10. Toronto Maple Leafs (24-14-8) What would be more truly surprising, a 110-point season from William Nylander or a 70-goal campaign from Auston Matthews? The answer might be neither, given how talented those two megastars are.
11. Vegas Golden Knights (28-14-6) Adin Hill won the Stanley Cup last year, so it’s not as though the guy had never achieved something coming into this season. However, his NHL-best .935 save percentage has to register as a big surprise. He just returned from nearly a month on the sideline, so let’s see how he does sharing the net with Logan Thompson down the stretch. If his numbers remain this sparkling, how many starts (he’s at 16 now) would he need for Vezina consideration? Could you win it with 37 if Linus Ullmark won it with 48 last year?
12. Detroit Red Wings (24-18-5) Alex Lyon has been the man in Detroit’s crease in January, as the Wings climbed back into playoff contention. The 31-year-old’s previous career high for starts was 14 last year in Florida. He’s made 11 since Christmas alone this season and has a .919 save percentage overall.
13. Philadelphia Flyers (25-17-6) Boy, Joel Farabee looks like a first-round talent now. The 14th-overall pick in 2018 has already established a new career high with 40 points and could wind up hitting 70.
Also, Cam Atkinson and Sean Couturier were fantastic players in the past, but seeing them compete so well after extended absences — both missed all of last season and Couturier missed almost two full years — is a wonderful development.
14. Tampa Bay Lightning (25-18-5) When Nikita Kucherov was simply the scoring leader, I would have said nobody should be surprised by this; the guy is freakin’ awesome. But, c’mon, after his most recent surge he’s on pace for 54 goals (41 is his previous best) and 140 points.
15. Los Angeles Kings (22-14-9) Even with the extended struggles of this team, Cam Talbot’s .913 save percentage registers as a nice surprise. That said, he’s got an .890 SP since mid-December as the Kings are on a six-week nosedive.
16. New Jersey Devils (24-18-3) He’s only played a little over half the year for New Jersey, but 2022 second-overall pick Simon Nemec has looked terrific. Even with his draft pedigree, I’m not sure anyone expected the 19-year-old to step in and play at a 40-point pace. Since Nemec debuted on Dec. 1, only Luke Hughes and John Marino have seen more total ice than the Slovak D-man.
17. St. Louis Blues (24-20-2) Robert Thomas was firmly established as a playmaker heading into this year, but the Blues’ top centre could wind up with 30 goals this season — and perhaps 90 points.
18. Pittsburgh Penguins (21-17-6) Nobody should ever doubt Sidney Crosby, but a 50-goal showing in his age-36 season after hitting that mark just one previous time in his incredible career would be awesome.
19. Washington Capitals (22-18-6) Charlie Lindgren’s .920 save percentage is fifth among goalies with 20 games played. Even with some flashes in the past, who can honestly say they saw that coming from the 30-year-old southpaw?
20. Seattle Kraken (20-18-9) Joey Daccord had 19 games on his career NHL resume prior to this year. So, yeah, his .922 save percentage in Seattle is a season-saving surprise for the Kraken.
21. Nashville Predators (25-21-1) Ryan O’Reilly has never recorded a 30-goal season, but he must might get there this year as a 32-year-old 1C in Nashville.
22. Arizona Coyotes (23-20-3) Yes, Connor Ingram’s year is a big surprise from a 26-year-old in just his second full NHL season. That said, Ingram did post a .922 save percentage in 17 games in the back half of last season.
23. Buffalo Sabres (21-23-4) Sabres fans certainly had reason to hope Casey Mittelstadt might become a 70-point guy after a breakout last year, but the fact he’s actually tracking that type of season is — if not a surprise — certainly a very welcomed affirmation of his abilities.
24. Minnesota Wild (21-21-5) We all knew the Wild got a good one when they traded for Brock Faber, but he’s got a legit chance to finish with 50 points as a rookie NHL defenceman. That’s something only three guys have done this century and their names are Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar and Moritz Seider.
25. New York Islanders (20-16-11) Matt Barzal being a point-per-game player again and Noah Dobson breaking into the absolute upper tier of point-producing defencemen are wonderful developments for the Isles, but not necessary huge surprises.
Meanwhile, Semyon Varlamov turns 36 in April and he’s out here rocking a .918 save percentage. Then again, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised by that, either. Since the start of 2017-18, only five goalies with at least 200 games under their belt have a better save percentage than Varlamov’s .916 mark.
26. Calgary Flames (21-21-5) Blake Coleman has always been a dependable, hardnosed winger who could play in anybody’s middle six. But the two-time Cup champion in Tampa has gone off this year with 20 goals already in 47 contests. His previous best was 22 five years ago in New Jersey.
27. Ottawa Senators (18-24-1) Remember when the Sens were trying to ship out Mathieu Joseph before the season to clear cap room? The 26-year-old winger stayed in Ottawa and is currently on pace for a 55-point season after never previously exceeding 30.
28. Montreal Canadiens (19-21-7) Defenceman Mike Matheson looked good in an injury-shortened debut season last year with his hometown team. Still, the fact he’s on pace for 55 points in his second year with the Habs is worth an eyebrow raise.
29. San Jose Sharks (13-31-4) Would you be at least a little surprised to know Kaapo Kahkonen’s .861 high-danger save percentage is better than all but five goalies with 800 minutes in the crease? I mean, I guess he does get a lot of practice with them…
30. Columbus Blue Jackets (14-23-9) There haven’t been much in the way of positive stories in Columbus this year, surprising or not. That said, six-foot-five freshman winger Dmitri Voronkov potting 23 points in his first 40 NHL contests is likely not something many people saw coming.
31. Anaheim Ducks (16-30-1) Yes, Frank Vatrano has cooled from his scorching start, but at age 29, he’s still just three goals shy of equaling his previous best total of 24 goals with well over a third of the year to go.
32. Chicago Blackhawks (14-32-2) What a wonderful fit Jason Dickinson has been in Chicago. After setting a new personal best with 30 points last year, he’s going to blow by that this season and could notch 25 goals. No wonder the Hawks recently inked him to an extension.
