Washington reportedly believes that rising tensions could lead to a major skirmish, with dozens of casualties on both sides
The US is worried that North Korea could “take some form of lethal military action” against its southern neighbor, the New York Times reported on Thursday, citing sources. However, Washington does not believe that Pyongyang is ready to risk a full-scale war with Seoul, which would most likely result in a US intervention, the article said.
According to unnamed US officials cited by the paper, Washington has taken note of what they described as more aggressive statements by Kim Jong-un in recent weeks, as well as frequent missile and artillery tests.
In particular, last month, Kim ruled out Korean reunification, denouncing its neighbor as a “colonial, subordinate state” whose principles were completely different from Pyongyang’s. Meanwhile, the North Korean leader’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, warned South Korea of a “baptism by fire” in the event that it commits even “a slight provocation.”
US officials believe that in light of recent statements, North Korea could do something resembling its powerful artillery barrage on Yeonpyeong Island in 2010, which followed South Korean exercises in the area. At the time, Pyongyang fired hundreds of shells, killing two South Korean soldiers and wounding more than a dozen.
Seoul retaliated, also claiming to have killed several North Korean service members. While this was widely regarded as one of the most serious escalation incidents on the peninsula, it still stopped short of sparking a full-scale engagement.
Nevertheless, US officials interviewed by the NYT seriously doubt that Pyongyang is about to start a full-scale attack, saying that they have not seen “concrete signs that North Korea is gearing up for combat.” They also noted, as cited by the paper, that Kim appeared to have boosted his military and diplomatic position, feeling emboldened by a recent rapprochement with Russia.
In addition to this, a full-scale North Korean attack “would almost certainly mean war with the United States,” the article said. In the event of such a conflict, Pyongyang could use its vast conventional arsenal to bombard South Korean cities, with Seoul and Washington also having the means to retaliate. North Korea is also estimated to have up to 30 nuclear weapons, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Washington currently has around 30,000 troops stationed on the peninsula, who regularly take part in joint exercises. The most recent live-fire drills took place earlier this month, with North Korea condemning them as “reckless war maneuvers.”
