In many ways, comparing Canada’s Olympic performance in Paris to, say, a Summer Games from a decade or more ago feels unfair.
Sports change, more events are added and the statuses of countries — particularly Russia — can vary wildly.
Therefore, the definition of best-Olympics-ever truly is impossible to nail down.
That won’t stop us from trying, however. Right now, it looks like you might be able to make a solid argument that Paris will turn out as the best Summer Olympics in Canadian history.
We won’t go far just yet, though.
With three days of competition to go, Canada has 21 medals and is guaranteed a 22nd in women’s beach volleyball (gold or silver) on Friday.
The record in a non-boycotted Olympics was 24, set three years ago in Tokyo. Based on the schedule, Canada has a very good chance of tying or beating that mark.
The Canadian team in Tokyo had more than 380 athletes, this team is just shy of 340. Teen swim sensation Summer McIntosh leads the way with three gold medals and one silver and is a heavy favourite to be a flag-bearer at the closing ceremony.
Russia, of course, does not have a team in this Olympics, and only 15 Russians have competed in Paris as individual neutral athletes.
Russia was third in Tokyo with 71 total medals and is a traditional Olympic powerhouse. However, the large majority of Canada’s Paris 2024 medals have come in events in which Russia has not been a top country in recent years.
Canada also is 11th overall in total medals, one behind Germany (22) in the race for 10th. The country’s best-ever finish was 10th in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 (22 medals). Canada was 11th in Tokyo.
Canada’s best-ever total was 44 in Los Angeles in 1984, but 14 Eastern Bloc countries, including Russia and East Germany, did not compete.
Golden record?
Canada’s record for gold medals at a non-boycotted Games is seven — set in Tokyo and 1992 in Barcelona. This year, Canada has six, so there is another record opportunity here.
On Friday, Canadian shot-putter Sarah Mitton will have a real shot to pick up the country’s seventh gold. Other medal opportunities Friday include the men’s 4×100-metre relay (Jamaica didn’t qualify for the final and American star Noah Lyles may not compete after testing positive for COVID-19) and Katie Vincent and Sloan MacKenzie in canoe sprint.
This weekend, Philip Kim will be a favourite to earn a medal in the new Olympic sport of breaking and Marco Arop is a top contender in the men’s 800 metres. Vincent also will have another shot in singles canoe sprint, and there are a handful of other opportunities, including Melissa Humana-Paredes and Brandie Wilkerson in the women’s beach volleyball final on Friday.
Beating projections
Canada already is ahead of the pace projected by Nielsen’s Gracenote.
Gracenote originally pegged Canada to finish 11th overall with 21 medals. After Wednesday’s competition, the organization had Canada projected for 27.
Canada was five medals ahead of the original projection after the 12th day of the 16-day event.
Canada has managed to exceed expectations, despite two potential gold medallists suffering early exits (boxer Tammara Thibeault lost in the first round and decathlete Damian Warner no-heighted in pole vault). Also, Canada didn’t win a basketball medal in men’s, women’s or 3×3, which has to be seen as a disappointment.
While other favourites also missed the podium, there have been surprises too — such as bronze medals for pole vaulter Alysha Newman and fencer Eleanor Harvey and silver for women’s rugby sevens.
Gracenote pegged Arop and Kim to win two of Canada’s projected six gold medals before the Games, so it could be a super Saturday.
Close but not quite
Canada figures to be in the 20s in total medal count for the fourth time in the past five Summer Games, but 30 could have been within reach with a little more luck.
Canada has 12 fourth-place finishes overall, including two for hard-luck diver Caeli McKay (giving her three fourth-place endings in a pair of Olympics).
But Canada has had better luck in other events.
For example, Skylar Park got in the taekwondo repechage after the South Korean fighter she lost to in the quarterfinals advanced to the final. Park made the most of the second chance, taking bronze by winning two more fights on Thursday.
Looking ahead
Breaking is not on the Los Angeles 2028 program, so a potential Kim repeat is off the table.
But some new or returning sports are favourable to Canada — including lacrosse, softball, flag football and baseball.
