One week of the 2024-25 NFL season is in the books, and there are some tantalizing storylines and matchups on deck. As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on the Blueprint 3, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story.
Whether it’s your wagers, confidence pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space.
Here are 10 stats that will tell the story as we head into the second week of the NFL season.
1. Highest-paid doesn’t equal best
Dak Prescott cashed in on the morning of his Week 1 game, making him the highest-paid quarterback in the history of the league. That might be a surprising outcome given his stature in the league, but it shouldn’t be.
Here is the list of the highest-paid QBs in the NFL on a per-year basis:
Dak Prescott: $60 million
Joe Burrow: $55 million
Jordan Love: $55 million
Trevor Lawrence: $55 million
Tua Tagovailoa: $53.1 million
Jared Goff: $53 million
Justin Herbert: $52.5 million
Lamar Jackson: $52 million
Jalen Hurts: $51 million
Of the top nine highest-paid QBs, none have won a Super Bowl, only two have been to the Super Bowl and only one has won an MVP award. The QB market is going up faster than the housing market. No matter if free-agent starters have the credentials to demand top money, they have shown they have the leverage.
2. Cousins concerns
Many fan bases are already panicking about their QB situation but one of the most surprising is Atlanta. Free-agent signing Kirk Cousins wasn’t great in Week 1, but he also was used in a predictable manner. Cousins was just 16-for-26 for 155 yards, with one TD, two interceptions with a 59 passer rating. It got worse as the game went on. In the second half, he had a one QBR in the second half, going 3-for-8 for 19 yards, with an interception and being sacked twice. Cousins had one pass under centre, and it was a spike.
Cousins had zero play-action passes, and he’s known for being a play-action guy. He also had zero bootlegs, and this is a Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan-inspired offence, which is all about bootlegs. In Week 1, Cousins didn’t attempt a single pass over 20 yards. Daniel Jones is the only other quarterback where that was the case. The Falcons’ offensive play calling by formation tells a story: they were in shotgun for 22 plays, of which they had a 100 per cent drop-back rate and zero designed rushes.
The Falcons were in the pistol for 26 plays consisting of a 19 per cent drop-back and 81 per cent designed rushes. And that’s all they did. On 96 per cent of plays, Cousins was in the shotgun or pistol. They refused to put Cousins under centre, and when he wasn’t, it was obvious if he was going to pass or hand it off. Not sure if they didn’t want Cousins moving because of his Achilles injury or they didn’t want him to play with his back to the defence, but no QB can be successful when the whole world knows what’s coming.
3. Bad Burrow, bad Bengals
Joe Burrow started the year off just 21-for-29 for 164 yards. Burrow refused to even look down the field, never mind throw it deep. In Week 1, Burrow was just 4-for-8, 60 yards on passes at least five yards downfield. The Bengals had just 224 yards, the fifth-fewest in a Joe Burrow start. Remember, Burrow missed the last seven games of the season with a wrist injury and was seen on the bench stretching out the once injured wrist. Burrow hadn’t played in a game since Nov. 16, 2023, so fans are hoping the issues Burrow had in Week 1 was rust and not regression.
4. Receiver trust issues
Part of the issue is with the departure of Tyler Boyd and the injury of Tee Higgins, Burrow seemed to have only one receiver he trusts, Ja’Marr Chase, who missed most of training camp holding out for a new contract. When Burrow targeted Chase, he was 6-for-6, with 10.3 yards per target, 50 per cent first downs with no turnovers. When he targeted all other players, he was 15-for-23 for 4.4 yards per target, 27 per cent first downs and a turnover.
5. Chase is not on the case
Issue is even when targeting Chase, Burrow didn’t push the ball down the field, which is Chase’s elite skill. The first ball thrown over 10 yards to Chase wasn’t until the fourth quarter with 4:25 left in the game. This is a function of the issues with the offence, not just the quarterback. The trend of struggling to get Chase the ball dates back to last season. Chase has been held under 70 receiving yards in five straight games, which is tied for the longest streak of his career.
6. 20-day starter
If you think 90-day fiancé is a wild timeline to make a commitment, what about 20-day quarterback? That’s what the Green Bay Packers are doing with Malik Willis, who will start versus the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, 20 days after being traded to the Packers. The Packers are not planning on putting Jordan Love on injured reserve after his knee injury, so Willis might not have to start for long, but he hasn’t had long to prepare.
7. Welcome to Miami
The Dolphins are an incredible 14-4 at home over the last three years. Maybe the distractions of Miami’s nightlife have something to do with that, but more than likely it has more to do with the heat. Hard Rock Stadium is constructed in a way that the home Dolphins bench is in the shade and the road teams’ bench is in the sun for the majority of fall afternoons. That may be less of an issue against the Bills, as their Thursday night game is in primetime after the sun has set.
8. Dolphins have a Bills problem
The biggest issue for Miami is that the Buffalo Bills have their number. Tua Tagovailoa is 1-6 versus the Bills, including 0-2 last season. Tagovailoa hasn’t lost to any other opponent more than three times. In the games against Buffalo, he’s thrown seven interceptions, the most against any team. Josh Allen, on the other hand, is 11-2 versus Miami in his career with 41 touchdowns in those 13 games. It isn’t Just that the Bills win, they dominate. Three of Allen’s wins over Tagovailoa are by 28, 30 and 35 points. The Bills have beat the Dolphins four straight times, in fact the last time Buffalo lost to Miami, the game was most famous for former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey throwing his tablet in the booth. We are far from the 1970s, when the Dolphins were 20-0 versus Buffalo. Now, the tables have turned. The next time these two teams play is Nov. 3 in Buffalo. It is early, but if Miami wants to keep pace atop the AFC East with Buffalo, this game is paramount.
9. Motion man
One of the issues with the Philadelphia Eagles offence last year was it lacked pre-snap motion, which made it predictable and didn’t help quarterback Jalen Hurts have pre-snap answers to the test. Last season, the Eagles had motion just 35 per cent of the time. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was brought in to rectify that fact and so far, so good. In Week 1, Kellen Moore called 67 per cent of snaps with motion. Jalen Hurts on plays with motion was 16-for-19 for 220 yards and two TDs. Both of Hurts two interceptions came on plays without motion.
10. Jets D flying low
The New York Jets defence was supposed to be the known quantity. The offence, theoretically, was supposed to have time to settle in because of their strength on D. In Week 1, the Jets’ inability to get stops was their biggest issue. When you look at how that defensive performance ranks in what they’ve done over the last two years, their 32 points allowed was tied for third worst, the 5.7 yards per play was third worst, the 4.7 yards per rush was third worst and their 53 per cent success rate was second worst. The Jets defence allowed eight straight scoring drives for the first time in the last 45 seasons. If those numbers don’t improve, it won’t matter who their QB is.
