This American League division series matchup features two clubs that are inherently familiar with each other. The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians are AL Central rivals and thus possess plenty of institutional knowledge about the other.
The Tigers are fresh off slaying an October behemoth in their sweep of the Houston Astros and will look to continue their improbable run. Meanwhile, the Guardians and their imposing bullpen are well-rested with what will be nearly a week between games.
Here’s a closer look at the series, which begins Saturday afternoon in Cleveland.
DETROIT TIGERS (86-76) vs. CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (92-69)
Guardians won the season series, 7-6. (Total score of 50-60).
What’s working for the Tigers:
Tarik Skubal and “pitching chaos,” to use a phrase coined by Tigers manager A.J. Hinch. Skubal, who’ll win the AL Cy Young this year, was brilliant in his Game 1 start against the Astros, delivering six innings of four-hit, shutout ball. He’s the sun around which the Tigers’ pitching staff orbits and that can’t be overstated.
Skubal will potentially start twice in the best-of-five series and everyone else who takes the mound will essentially be the product of Hinch’s mixing and matching. There are no defined roles and any pitcher can be called upon at any time — a method that helped the Tigers become the hottest team in baseball over the past month. While that’s easier to do in the shorter wild-card series than it is in the DS, it’s foolish to bet against Hinch.
What’s working for the Guardians:
José Ramírez is a superstar who’s often underappreciated because of the market he plays in. The third baseman clubbed 39 homers, recorded 41 steals and posted 6.5 wins above replacement this season and when you look at his spectacular career, it’s a wonder that more people don’t revere him. Since 2016, only three players — Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge and Francisco Lindor — have tallied more than Ramirez’s 49.8 fWAR. He leads a Cleveland offence that also has the 31-homer bat of Canadian Josh Naylor.
The starting rotation is OK, but the relievers are the Guardians’ other main attraction. And boy, are they special. Cleveland’s bullpen was by far the best in baseball with a 2.57 ERA. For context, the next best in the AL was the Tigers’ pen, which posted an ERA that was almost a full run higher (3.55). Closer Emmanuel Clase is enjoying a season for the ages while Canadian rookie Cade Smith has been a revelation at the back end. The Guardians give off late 90’s Yankees vibes — if they’ve got a lead by the seventh inning, it’s pretty much game over.
Potential Achilles heel for the Tigers:
As a whole, the lineup is not particularly strong and requires button-pushing from Hinch in the same way that the pitching staff does. The club depends on playing the matchup game and platoon advantages, but just like the Kansas City Royals, who’ll play the New York Yankees in the other division series, this club is power deficient.
The Tigers were 24th in baseball with 162 homers and only one of their eight runs in the wild-card series came as a result of the long ball. Teams need to be able to go deep every now and then in the playoffs and giving the pitching staff some breathing room is important here because of the unique scenarios in which Tigers hurlers will be deployed.
Potential Achilles heel for the Guardians:
Ramirez aside, this offence can seem weak and has struggled to score runs for most of the season. Since June 1, the Guardians rank 27th in baseball in runs scored, ahead of only the Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox. The club’s OPS since that date is a paltry .695. Nonetheless, the Guardians understand their brand of baseball and have developed a penchant for squeezing just enough out of their offence.
It’ll all come down to …
The managers. Hinch versus Guardians’ first-year bench boss Stephen Vogt will be fun to watch and could essentially decide the series. Given the unique makeup of their rosters, expect to see fascinating chess matches between the two men with the winner punching a ticket to the AL Championship series.
