A Steven Stamkos-sized shadow will loom over Jake Guentzel this season.
The Tampa Bay Lightning chose Guentzel over their franchise icon, signing the former Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes forward to the richest deal in free agency this past summer (seven years, $63 million).
Although Lightning coach Jon Cooper told reporters at the start of training camp that “nobody’s replacing (Stamkos)” and the legacy he left behind, it is inevitable that Guentzel and Stamkos will be compared to each other throughout the season.
Both are prolific scorers; Guentzel has recorded three consecutive 30-goal seasons, and Stamkos (now with the Nashville Predators) is coming off his seventh career 40-goal season.
They generate offence much differently, though. Stamkos did most of his damage last season with the one-timer, scoring 19 of his 40 goals that way. Thirteen of those came on the power play from his office in the left circle.
Guentzel, on the other hand, is one of the NHL’s best net-front players. He scored 27 of his 30 goals last season from the slot, including 19 from the inner slot. Since entering the league in 2016-17, 189 of Guentzel’s 227 goals (83.3 per cent) have come in the slot.
Based on the quality of Guentzel’s shot attempts last season, he was expected to score 45 goals, which would have placed him in the top 10 league-wide. The minus-15 margin between Guentzel’s actual and expected goals was the largest in the NHL. That suggests a bounce-back year is in the offing, and Guentzel will have every opportunity to make it happen.
The Lightning hope that Guentzel will have a bigger impact than Stamkos did at 5-on-5. Only 14 of Stamkos’ 40 goals came at 5-on-5 last season, while Guentzel scored 19 of his 30 goals in that fashion. (Guentzel averaged 15:19 of 5-on-5 ice time per game last season — nearly two minutes more than Stamkos.)
Most of Stamkos’ value last season was tied to his production on the power play. His 6.91 scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 ranked 58th out of 144 forwards who played at least 1,000 minutes. Guentzel, meanwhile, was fourth with 10.2 scoring chances per 60 at 5-on-5.
Guentzel is expected to open the season on Tampa Bay’s No. 1 line alongside world-class centre Brayden Point and perennial MVP candidate Nikita Kucherov. When Stamkos played with Point and Kucherov at 5-on-5 last regular season, the Lightning generated 48.3 per cent of the expected goals in 305:41 of ice time.
It should not take long for Guentzel to develop chemistry with his new linemates. After joining the Hurricanes at last season’s trade deadline, he led the team with 25 points in 17 regular-season games. (Carolina outscored opponents 13-4 at 5-on-5 when Guentzel, Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis were on the ice together.)
Stamkos’ departure has forced the Lightning to reimagine their overwhelming power play, which led the league last season at 28.6 per cent — the third-highest single-season mark of the past 40 years.
Kucherov, according to the Tampa Bay Times, will switch sides and take Stamkos’ spot on the left half wall. Guentzel will play the bumper position previously held by Point, who will move down to the net-front area.
“We’ve had an extremely successful power play for a number of years, but it’s primarily been the same players,” Cooper told reporters. “You want to have the No. 1 PP in the league or top five every single year. We’ve been blessed the last few years to be able to have that. But with some of the talent we have in this group, we don’t see why we can’t do that again. It just may be in a different way.”
Following three consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final and two titles, the Lightning have not advanced past the first round of the playoffs in the past two seasons. Stamkos was not the only core player let go by the Lightning over the summer. General manager Julien BriseBois also sent Mikhail Sergachev, who re-signed with the team for eight years in 2022, to the Utah Hockey Club. (BriseBois reacquired Ryan McDonagh from the Predators to replace Sergachev.)
By adding Guentzel to a championship-winning core group that includes Kucherov, Point, new captain Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy, the Lightning feel they still have what it takes to compete.
All stats via Sportlogiq
