During the 2022-23 season where the Boston Bruins set the NHL points record, they had a three-game stretch in late January where they lost three in a row. When last season’s Presidents Trophy-winning New York Rangers crossed into 2024, they did so by going loss, win, loss, loss, loss.
My junior coach used to say “Good teams don’t lose two in a row,” and that message was useful. The mindset of “When you fall off you get right back on the horse” is great for an athlete, but it’s also not exactly true. Good teams do lose games, and sometimes they lose several in a row, for a variety of reasons.
But you know who also loses stretches of games in a row? Bad teams.
It’s with that in mind that we’re going to evaluate the NHL’s slow starters this season, as a handful of teams with Stanley Cup Playoff aspirations (at a minimum) have fallen flat out of the gates. Are these poorly-timed blips from good teams, or are they worse teams than we thought?
Ten days ago I wrote “Two sentences on every NHL team’s expectations,” which I’ll crib from below to summarize my expectations.
Pre-season expectations: Top-two in the Central
So far: 0-3-0, -10 goal differential, losses to Vegas, Columbus and the Islanders
Key “pre-season expectation” quote: “..a division crown and more rides on the two players above (Landeskog and Nichushkin) helping out upon returning, plus getting good goaltending from Alexandar Georgiev and Justus Annunen.”
Analysis: That last part is interesting.
Only one team in the NHL has spent a higher percentage of their games in the O-zone than the Avs. They’re one of a few teams who grade out well by both expected goals for and expected goals against.
After getting out my spectacles and abacus I can tell you their team save percentage is dead-freaking-last (about 75 per cent), and their team shooting percentage is also in the bottom half of the league, which puts them at 27th in “actuals goals compared to expected goals” according to SportLogiq.
I’m not saying they’ve been good, but let’s pump the brakes on the Avs, who are moderate goaltending away from getting it together and looking like the team we expected them to be. (Returns from Landeskog and/or Nichushkin, as well as Devon Toews will go a long way too.)
Pre-season expectations: Better than last season’s 99 points
So far: 0-3-0, -8 goal differential, losses to Dallas, Detroit, Seattle
Key “pre-season expectations” quote: “…their blue line is just OK, and their most important forwards are old, so they just seem built to get 97 points and be eliminated by Dallas in the first round.”
Analysis: Clearly I wasn’t as high on them as most.
They can make some of the same claims as Colorado, in that their goaltending has been abominable (second-worst save percentage in the league), and their shooting percentage has somehow been worse, clocking in at dead last (just a bit over five percent).
But Colorado has been good in expected goals for and against, while the Preds are packed in a quadrant of sadness with four other teams: San Jose, Montreal, Chicago, and Philadelphia. That is … not a positive sign.
I’m not sure they’re going to match last season’s freakish 99 points, but this is still the team that played a stretch of 18 games without a regulation-time loss in early 2024. Their shooting and save percentages will improve, and they’ll find their way back to playoffs.
Pre-season expectations: Top 2 or 3 in the Pacific
So far: 0-1-2, -5 goal differential, taking points off Calgary and Philly then losing outright to Tampa Bay
Key “pre-season expectations” quote: “…I expect them to finish second in the Pacific (behind Edmonton), with their fate from there riding entirely on the health of Thatcher Demko.”
Analysis: Maybe I messed up by saying “from there,” as “with their fate riding entirely on the health of Thatcher Demko” might have been more accurate. The Canucks are fifth-last in team save percentage, as Arturs Silovs (-3.5 goals below expected according to MoneyPuck) hasn’t quite been Demko.
But he certainly hasn’t been the only problem, as the team finds themselves on the wrong end of the expected goals for and against categories, Elias Pettersson is struggling to produce, and they just haven’t quite found last year’s mojo.
All that said, there’s still too much talent there for them to suddenly be bad, so I’m not overly worried about a moderately slow start, particularly when I thought they played well against their last opponent, Tampa Bay. But a lot went right last season, and so some early adversity will provide a good test.
Pre-season expectations: Threaten playoffs
So far: 1-3-0, -4 goal differential
Key “pre-season expectations” quote: “…but they have a higher upside than other non-playoff teams because there’s at least a chance a D-corps with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Bowen Byram hits levels most teams can’t match.”
Analysis: Sometimes you just hit rough patches in the schedule, and playing the NJ Devils — a likely home-ice playoff team — in Prague to start and then the defending Cup champs in three of your first four games would qualify as a “tough patch.”
Even with that challenge, they’ve still managed to be 11th in expected goals against, which makes me feel pretty good about the prediction above. Four of their next five opponents missed playoffs last year, so it’s possible they get their house back in order fairly quickly.
And if they do, look for “Rasmus Dahlin lit up Peyton Krebs” to be the “emotional turning point” narrative for the team, rather than “their schedule got easier.”
And finally…
(I have them here rather than the winless San Jose Sharks because we’re talking about teams we thought were going to be good.)
Pre-season expectations: President’s Trophy and Stanley Cup faves
So far: 1-3-0, -11 goal differential after four straight at home, three against non-playoff teams from last year
Key “pre-season expectations” quote: “…I like Stuart Skinner’s odds of having a great year…”
Analysis: Bit of a theme among struggling teams, isn’t there?
Skinner has played three games and has an .845 save percentage while being second-last in goals saved above expected (giving up four goals more than you’d expect he should, roughly). But he’s better than awful, so that will improve. And their PK, which was so good last season, is currently well below 50 per cent, so that will improve too.
They’re going to be good (still divisional favourites), but I do have one concern now that I didn’t have two weeks ago: I’m not sure that their changes, particularly those on defence, didn’t leave them worse off. They’re without Philip Broberg, Cody Ceci and Vincent Desharnais, none of whom are world-beaters, but currently look far better than Ty Emberson, Travis Dermott, and Troy Stecher.
It’s hurting their expected goals against, and their losses up front (Dylan Holloway, Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele) leave them a little slower than last year and less PK-ready.
As mentioned, this is still a good team that’s gonna get hot. But after just a few games I may be downgrading them from “the best team” to “one of the best teams in the league.”
