Earlier this week I wrote an article that looked at the league’s winless teams and tried to assess whether they were legitimately bad, or just off to bad starts. Most teams not named San Jose had pretty good excuses, and were likely to sort things out. (Just days later, it seems like the Edmonton Oilers have.)
Today we’re going to look at the NHL teams that haven’t lost in regulation yet. Given some of them weren’t exactly world beaters last season, we’ll assess whether these hot starts are potentially a sign of surprisingly good things to come, or not.
For reference on the below, here is my pre-season article “Two sentence expectations for every NHL team.”
Let’s start with the first of two Canadian surprises, the…
CALGARY FLAMES
Pre-season expectations: A potential lottery team
Record to date: 4-0-0
Pre-season expectations quote: “They sent away Jacob Markstrom and Andrew Mangiapane for long-term gain, and in turn, they should be clearly out of the playoffs before the deadline.“
Analysis: Sometimes things just go right for a stretch of games, and the Flames may well be in that pocket. Their combined save and shooting percentage (PDO) is third highest in the league, and they’ve counted Chicago and Philadelphia among their early season victims thus far, two pretty not-great teams.
But something has changed about the perception of this team. If their veteran guys happen to have good years at the same time, there are enough quality players here for Calgary to be a challenge most nights. Combine that with some good young talent to energize the group, and you could see them parlaying a good start into a season that’s filled with positivity, rather than being some negative slog. They’ll still miss the playoffs, but they’re no pushover.
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Pre-season expectations: Fighting for anywhere from second to fifth in the Atlantic
Record to date: 3-0-0
Pre-season expectations quote: “Make no mistake, the Bolts are an analytics organization that’s trying to win Stanley Cups.”
Analysis: Early returns are that this team is good, very good. If they can figure out a way to upgrade their D-corps, they could be back among the tier of teams with a legitimate shot at the Cup. (But again, that hinges on a very particular positional upgrade.)
They’ve got too many threats up front, and too good of a goalie to think their start is a fluke. They’re giving up more expected goals against than the average NHL team so far, so they’ve got some work to do. But they’re fast, they work hard, and they’re smart, which translates to a good team that could push for home ice in the post-season.
WINNIPEG JETS
Pre-season expectations: Wild card playoff team
Record to date: 3-0-0
Pre-season expectations quote: “While this is a very good team, they fell short last post-season, and let several good players go without really replacing them, so it’ll be a year-long battle for the playoffs.”
Analysis: During the 2023-24 season, the Jets allowed 198 goals against, tied for fewest in the league — a pretty significant accomplishment. Their goalie won the Vezina Trophy, they played team defence and built off it.
Well, so far this season they have allowed just two goals against in three games and have the lowest expected goals against of any Western Conference team. I don’t know that “best defensive team in the NHL” is sustainable this year, and it remains to be seen if they can score above league average, but any team that defends this well is going to win hockey games.
I now expect to see the Jets add some offence as they go, and becoming a stronger team than I felt they were a whopping 10 days ago.
NEW YORK RANGERS
Pre-season expectations: Drop by 10 points (from 114) and be a tough out in the playoffs
Record to date: 3-0-1
Pre-season expectations quote: “But they did win (the Presidents’ Trophy), and they didn’t change much of anything, so I guess they’ll be a 100-plus point team again this season, though it won’t be another Presidents’ Trophy.“
Analysis: Sure they haven’t won every game in regulation, but few teams have better underlying numbers thus far and they’ve shown the can maintain a strong pace over a full season before.
Artemi Panarin is en fuego, Alexis Lafreniere is a star, and Igor Shesterkin is going to be the highest paid goalie in league history before long. This is no mirage, and so all told, the Rangers may actually threaten for that Presidents’ Trophy yet again. Shows what I know.
And finally…
MINNESOTA WILD
Pre-season expectations: If healthy, be in the playoff hunt before falling just short in April
Record to date: 2-0-2
Pre-season expectations quote: “Their combined shooting and save percentage (PDO) last year was bottom-10 in the league, so I expect some bounce-back.”
Analysis: It’s probably a stretch to have them here, as they’ve lost twice beyond regulation, but hey! The Wild haven’t lost outright yet!
They’re a strange team, in that they’ve got six of eight possible points, but no team in the league has been worse at creating expected goals. They’ve done it on the backs of great goaltending (over .950 save percentage thus far), and the puck has gone in a bit more than they maybe deserve, so they look pretty good in the standings.
Positive vibes can snowball into something more lasting, but all told, I see an average team having a fortuitous run of hockey.
We always talk about how teams are reasonably well sorted just five or six weeks after the start of the season, and in some ways, we can see it happening. The teams in the wrong statistical cluster include the Sharks, Flyers, Canadiens, and Blackhawks. The good cluster has the Rangers, Lightning, Stars, and the…Flames?
Mostly, those clusters make sense.
But the drift will continue as more games get played, and it’s a busy weekend of hockey ahead.
