The most significant trade of the Toronto Blue Jays offseason so far is the Andrés Giménez deal, but the team has also effectively swapped closers with the Philadelphia Phillies.
By letting Jordan Romano go and signing Jeff Hoffman to a three-year deal worth $33 million, the Blue Jays demonstrated that they put a meaningful premium on the difference between the two high-leverage relievers. That’s particularly significant in the context of this front office’s longstanding reluctance to shop at the top of the relief market.
The wide gap between Romano (6.59 ERA, -0.3 fWAR) and Hoffman (2.17 ERA, 2.0 fWAR) in 2024 provides a compelling reason for that, but if we zoom out a bit, the newest Blue Jays’ and Romano have several similarities.
Both relievers primarily rely on a four-seam fastball sitting 96-97 m.p.h. and a diving slider in the 86-87 range with 4-5 inches of vertical drop above average. Romano and Hoffman each have health concerns, as the former is coming off shoulder surgery while the latter had contract negotiations with the Baltimore Orioles derail due to concerns about his physical status.
The duo is also both entering their age-32 seasons, and over the last three seasons, many of their rate statistics look similar despite Romano’s trainwreck 2024:
|
Pitcher |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
Groundball% |
ERA |
|
Romano |
10.40 |
3.23 |
0.92 |
38.7% |
2.90 |
|
Hoffman |
11.19 |
3.20 |
0.77 |
36.2% |
2.70 |
Hoffman’s line is preferable, but not by an overwhelming margin.
Jettisoning Romano and making an unprecedented offer to another closer is a heavy endorsement of the magnitude of that upgrade — particularly if the Blue Jays didn’t have concerns about their incumbent’s recovery, as they claim.
So, why was Toronto so convinced this move would be such a difference-maker?
The first reason is that Hoffman’s performance over the past couple of years was even better than it looked on paper. While the newest Blue Jays reliever has a career-best ERA (2.17 in 2024) that Romano has gotten below twice in full seasons (2021 and 2022), Hoffman has been working under challenging circumstances.
The right-handed flyball pitcher has spent the last two seasons playing in front of a Philadelphia Phillies outfield defence that ranks 24th in the majors by Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (-18).
Meanwhile, his home park, Citizens Bank Park, had a Park Factor of 114 while he was with the Phillies, the fifth-highest total in MLB. Hoffman has kept balls in the yard well, even in Philadelphia, over the past two years (0.80 HR/9), but he was even better on the road (0.53 HR/9).
For comparison, Toronto had the top outfield defence over the past two years (+48 FRV) while playing in a slightly below-average ballpark for home runs with a Park Factor of 96.
The Blue Jays have reason to believe that as good as Hoffman has been in the last two years — and he ranked fifth among all relievers by fWAR — he might do even better in the more favourable environment they can offer.
A second important component of Hoffman’s appeal is his demonstrated ability to evolve and potential to take further steps even 10 years into his major league career.
In 2023, the right-hander rode a massive spike in velocity to newfound success as a full-time reliever but also changed his approach from pumping in heaters to leaning on a nasty diving slider.
Before that season, he’d never thrown it more than 23.7 per cent of the time. He doubled it to 47.9 per cent, making it his most-used offering despite wielding a 97 m.p.h. fastball. He finished the season with more strikeouts on that pitch (39) than his previous five years combined (37).
In 2024, he didn’t have a radical shift in his plan of attack, but Hoffman tinkered with his two-strike approach, throwing his two best pitches — his slider and four-seamer — approximately equally often and getting precisely the same number of strikeouts with each (35).
He also developed a nifty sinker that ran down and into right-handers.
That pitch was seldom used (8.2 per cent), but it had a run value of plus-three, and its horizontal movement was 2.1 inches above average. It’s a wild card at this point, but it could be a handy pitch to play off the slider.
Even some of the best relievers have limited repertoires that don’t leave much room for continued adjustments and may leave them vulnerable when they don’t have the platoon advantage. Hoffman has a four-pitch mix, including a splitter that’s accounted for 37.9 per cent of his strikeouts against left-handed hitters over the past two years.
His repertoire isn’t bulletproof, but it’s flexible — and interesting to a team that, for its hiccups in developing young pitching, has done a solid job maximizing it at the major league level.
From the volatility of all relievers to the health concerns specific to Hoffman, the Blue Jays new closer doesn’t come without considerable risk. At the same time, he’s been a true bullpen ace since his 2023 breakout and wields a repertoire with the ingredients necessary to adapt to the challenges in the years ahead.
By the end of 2025, the Phillies may be happy they let Hoffman sign a lucrative deal elsewhere and scooped up Romano. The Canadian right-hander is a talented reliever capable of turning in an outstanding season.
The Blue Jays may be wrong in their judgment that Hoffman was worth the biggest contract a free-agent reliever has received so far. But if they are, it won’t have anything to do with his recent production or the potential of his arsenal. Those signals indicate that the Blue Jays have made their most significant bullpen addition in a long time.
