When it comes to future salary ceilings, the question is not only when we will get clarity — but will we get it beyond 2025-26?
As prophesied in the current collective bargaining agreement, the 2025-26 cap will be approximately $92.5 million — although the NHL and NHLPA can agree to lift it higher. At the December Board of Governors meeting, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman indicated those discussions will occur, and for good reason. When the two sides negotiated the COVID-19 CBA in 2020, the cap was “de-linked” from a 50-50 revenue split, with guardrails in place in case economies did not recover from lockdowns. A strong post-COVID surge — with Bettman projecting a record $6.6 billion (USD) in revenues this season — indicates there is plenty of room for a larger bump.
According to several sources, the league and union are not just negotiating a 2025-26 number, but beyond that. It depends on who you talk to but, if this works out, we could get up to two additional seasons solidified.
On his Agent Provocateur podcast this week, Allan Walsh said, “I am telling you right now, the upper limit of the salary cap next year will be $97 million,” adding it could reach $105 million by 2027-28. Walsh has better sources than I do, so he’s got better detail on numbers. But it fits with the salary cap being set for three seasons. Also, what stood out to me was his use of the word “smoothing.”
The NBA had a massive jump in the summer of 2016: $24.1 million, and in retrospect, both owners and players hated it. Too much chaos and jealousy — the gigantic bump allowed the Golden State Warriors to sign Kevin Durant, prolonging their dynasty. In their new CBA, both sides agreed the cap can’t increase by more than 10 per cent from one season to next.
That’s smoothing.
There are reasons for the NHL and its players to support this approach. Some organizations — even well-run ones — are nervous about an $110 million cap, especially those whose revenues come in Canadian funds. Right now, two-thirds of the league is within $2 million of the top. It’s going to be very interesting to see how much that changes as things rise.
As for the players, easing the pop allows more than one free-agent class to benefit. And, it protects them from their most-hated word: escrow. (When Scott Moore hired me at Sportsnet, he told me I’d get fired if he heard the word escrow. Thank God he’s not here now.) If the cap goes high and revenues drop, their escrow percentage rises. That’s the reverse of what they want. So, slight caution is smart for them, too.
There is hope this will happen in advance of the March 7 trade deadline — so teams and players can make more informed decisions. If it does, there’s also reason to be optimistic in CBA negotiations. If the financials are sorted out, what on earth could stop a deal?
THOUGHTS
1. Bad news for Team Sweden as Jacob Markstrom will “miss some time,” according to Sheldon Keefe, after getting hurt Wednesday against Boston. Linus Ullmark is a question, too, and now there is concern that whatever lingering injury is bothering William Karlsson could cause him to miss the 4 Nations Face-Off. We should get clarity soon. Hopefully, everything works out for him.
2. The wish is that Markstrom recovers as quick as possible. One thing to remember: if Jake Allen plays 40 games, the Canadiens get a second-round selection at the upcoming draft. If not, it’s a third. (He’s at 15.)
3. Mercifully, Connor McDavid threw cold water on the red-hot takery coming out of his suspension, saying Wednesday while he thought it “might’ve been a little harsh, I understand their decision and have to move on.” I was slightly surprised that a few players indicated they felt McDavid’s previous suspension — a two-gamer in 2019 — shouldn’t have factored in. The reason: they felt it wasn’t relevant to this play and also thought three games was too many. “I just don’t think anyone benefits from him being out three games,” was a common thought. You don’t hear that rationale too often. McDavid also said, “A penalty in the first is a penalty in the third, and a penalty in October is a penalty in April.” When McDavid was on the Competition Committee, that was his consistent comment. Call the rulebook.
4. I was talking with another executive who said the Oilers and their opponents will be on high alert for how games are called in the aftermath. Do the Oilers get more power plays? Is there any bias against them? Teams worry about overcompensation. The situations are not comparable, but Calgary’s penalty count went from 30th to fourth after Dennis Wideman high-sticked a linesman in 2016. So the paranoia exists.
5. Vancouver coach Rick Tocchet had a great line when asked if Conor Garland would face any repercussions during the rematch Thursday in Edmonton. “Yeah, he held a guy. So is that ‘Wanted’ posters?” This is why McDavid and Tyler Myers were guaranteed two games. If there’s an opportunity for the league to turn down the heat in a rematch, it will. Possible the teams get warned, too.
6. Mikko Rantanen and Colorado need a deadline. Deadlines spur action. No more bluffing, true cards on the table. The big question: do the Avalanche consider March 7 to be that deadline, or are they willing to take their chances if he’s unsigned by then? Even though Gabriel Landeskog signed in late July 2021, no one thought he was going to leave. Does everyone feel the same here?
7. Team to watch: Carolina. They are active, ready to pounce.
8. The Hurricanes and Rangers are two of the teams with permission to talk to J.T. Miller. Believe the New York offer was Filip Chytil, a first-rounder and a prospect. I get very mixed messages on New Jersey. The Rangers have the cap room to do it, but the Devils would need to perform roster surgery to pull it off. Yes, they struggled until pounding Boston on Wednesday, but that’s a good team. I’m not convinced about Dallas, either. I always assume I’m missing something, though.
9. Elias Pettersson communicated to the Canucks he wishes to stay. We will see how all of this unfolds.
10. A few days after frustrated comments to a Slovakian newspaper, things have cooled down around Simon Nemec. The Devils communicated to anyone who asked they have zero interest in the dealing the 2022 second-overall selection. If anything, the Olympic qualifier injury last August hurt his chances of making New Jersey. Things will reset next fall. Let’s see what unfolds then.
11. With all of the noise around the Penguins, I believe they have interest in some of Buffalo’s younger, NHL-ready prospects. It fits what they want.
12. Columbus has little interest in mid-round picks for its unrestricted free agents. Everyone’s rooting for them, and I’d go for it too, instead of accepting a low price. A couple of the players referred to captain Boone Jenner, injured before the season, as “our deadline acquisition.”
13. Jack Johnson, in Toronto on Wednesday with Columbus, said he wants to play one more season. That would be 20 years in the NHL, including the five games he played in 2006-07 after leaving the University of Michigan.
14. One executive reached out during the David Carle coaching discourse to say that the average salary for a first-time head coach is $1.4M. I still think someone makes a legit run, but it would be a leap for his peer group.
-
-
NHL on Sportsnet
Livestream Hockey Night in Canada, Scotiabank Wednesday Night Hockey, the Oilers, Flames, Canucks, out-of-market matchups, the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the NHL Draft.
15. The Blue Jackets had a great social media spot on Monday, hours before Ohio State won the NCAA football championship. Several players wore Buckeye jerseys upon arrival on Long Island for their game against the Islanders. None were the team’s Michiganders. Johnson joked they were “separated” from those players, while Zach Werenski added, “There’s no chance I’d be doing that.”
16. Our Werenski interview will air on Friday’s podcast. He’s great, and one story stood out. There was a game this year where a Blue Jacket made an extra move at the blueline, causing teammates to go offside. A television timeout followed. One of the other players was frustrated, and, if you were really looking for it, you could see it. Werenski skated up to that player, said something, softening him into giving an encouraging tap to the offending puckhandler. “There are so many emotions within a hockey game, right? I just feel like in certain situations there’s a time and place to hold teammates accountable, for sure. Don’t give anyone any advantage if they see us bickering at each other or fans or whatever. Let’s just handle that by ourselves in the room…It’s something I wouldn’t have done two years ago or maybe even last year. But I feel like with where we’re at, we’re so close to where we want to be. I feel like those are big moments. They’re small things, but they’re big moments within the team.” Don’t let anyone see you sweat? “Exactly. Don’t give them any advantages.”
17. I felt really old when Charlie Coyle informed me he is the second-oldest Bruin. I was 21 when he was born.
18. Tom McVie died this week at age 89. Very, very friendly, he had one of the most distinctive voices in the sport, gravelly and unmistakeable. At one of the Roger Neilson coaches’ clinics, Dave Barr, who played 614 NHL games, told a phenomenal story about playing for McVie on the 1991-92 New Jersey Devils. Barr got stripped carrying the puck in his own zone, leading to a breakaway. Their goalie made the save, but Barr, charging back as hard as he could to make up for his mistake, knocked the puck into his own net. An absolutely disastrous shift. Sitting on the bench, “I could feel (McVie’s) eyes burning holes through me,” Barr laughed years later. “Finally he yelled, ‘Not only did you get the goal, you also got an assist!’ All I could see what my teammates around me, shaking as they tried to hold their laughter.”
