The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week is:
• Bruins should explore a Marchand trade
• Weegar a perfect fit to replace Pietrangelo
• Grubauer another example of risky goalie contracts
• Shine finally reaches the big time
Now that Mikko Rantanen has been traded, nobody should be off limits.
That includes Brad Marchand, who is in the final year of his contract and facing an uncertain future with the Boston Bruins. Marchand is in his 16th season in Boston and both sides would probably like to continue the relationship, but getting a deal done won’t be easy. The longtime Bruin will turn 37 next month and I’m sure Boston would like to keep him, but at what price and what term?
Marchand made an appearance on Nick Kypreos’ most recent trade board as a name to watch, with Kypreos noting his situation is somewhat similar to Joe Pavelski’s when he left the San Jose Sharks. Pavelski ultimately chose to head to the Dallas Stars for more term, something Marchand could potentially be seeking also. A series of one-year deals are probably preferable for the Bruins, though it may be tough to convince Marchand to take a discount.
Part of that has to do with Marchand’s current deal, which was originally eight years at $6.125 million per season. That’s been a steal for the Bruins, as Marchand has averaged more than a point per game for the majority of the contract. He even hit the 100-point mark in the second year of the pact. Marchand may be willing to work with the Bruins somewhat, but it’s hard to picture him taking a major discount when this may very well be his final multi-year deal.
If the two sides are far off on numbers, would the Bruins ever consider moving Marchand prior to the deadline like the Colorado Avalanche just did with Mikko Rantanen? If they think they could potentially lose Marchand for nothing this summer they’d have to at least consider it, even if it may be difficult for all parties involved.
The obvious benefit of trading Marchand is that the Bruins could get a decent haul in return. Even at his age and with his offensive numbers declining slightly this season, there would still be teams lining up for Marchand’s services. He may not be the player he once was, but what team wouldn’t want what Marchand brings to the table for a playoff run this spring?
Marchand recorded 80 points in 2021-22, then 67 points in each of the next two campaigns and now he’s on pace for 62 points this year. His post-season production, though, isn’t regressing. Since 2016-17, Marchand has 99 points in 91 playoff games and even if we look at the last four seasons, he’s tallied 43 points in 31 postseason contests. Marchand saves his best hockey for when it matters most, making him the perfect target for any team at the deadline.
Even as a rental, Marchand could fetch a fairly big return. Maybe this isn’t a perfect comparison because he plays centre and was a couple of years younger than what Marchand is now, but I think the return the Philadelphia Flyers got for Claude Giroux could be in the ball park. The Flyers got Owen Tippett, plus a first and third-round pick at the time for Giroux, something roughly you’d think the Bruins could get for Marchand. If not more.
The Bruins have committed to David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and Jeremy Swayman long term and that’s a great core, but the results this season make it clear they need more help. The Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov deals haven’t paid dividends yet and getting a handful of assets back for Marchand could not only help re-stock the prospect cupboards, but clear up cap space in the process.
Of course, the downside of trading Marchand is it would hurt them in the immediate future. As rocky of a season as it’s been for Boston, they’re currently in the mix for a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference and right in the thick of a playoff race. Marchand would likely be the best player in any trade he’s involved in, so Boston’s return may not help them much this year. If the Bruins still believe they can contend this season, they are probably better with Marchand on the roster.
The other challenging thing for the Bruins to navigate would be how the move would go over in the dressing room. We just saw how blindsided some of the Avalanche players were when Rantanen was dealt, including Nathan MacKinnon. Marchand has a Stanley Cup with the Bruins and he’s their captain, so it would definitely be tough for everyone to see him leave.
Boston appears to be at somewhat of a crossroads where its future is concerned. They could still be a playoff team this year, but seem to be slipping further and further away from Cup contender status. Pastrnak, McAvoy and Swayman are great pieces to build around, but where does Marchand fit in? He’s much older and at a different point of his career, so committing significant money and some term to Marchand may not be the best way to break the Bruins out of mediocrity.
One thing we saw with the Rantanen trade is how difficult a decision it was for the Avs to make. Now Bruins management find themselves in a similar decision. Is Boston willing to take on a Marchand extension that may not be good for their future just to keep him in the fold? And if they’re not, can they accept seeing him finish his career in another jersey?
It’s all about tough choices at this time of year.
MacKenzie Weegar, Calgary Flames
Next man up.
With Alex Pietrangelo withdrawing from the 4 Nations Face-Off, it’s given hope to a handful of defensemen that just missed the final cut for Team Canada’s roster. The likes of Evan Bouchard, Chris Tanev, Brandon Montour and Drew Doughty are suddenly in the mix once again.
Most people have Doughty as the logical next choice to replace Pietrangelo and understandably so. The Los Angeles Kings blue liner has a pair of Stanley Cups and Olympic gold medals to his credit. Doughty only recently returned to action after missing the first half of the season with an ankle injury, otherwise, he probably would’ve been on the team already.
While Doughty may be a logical choice, let’s not forget about MacKenzie Weegar. The Calgary Flames defenceman was one of the more debated players that was left off the roster, mainly because he had such a great season last year. Weegar tallied an impressive 20 goals in 2023-24 and posted a career-best 208 shots on goal. He enjoyed a breakout season and suddenly looks like a critical part of the Matthew Tkachuk trade return for the Flames.
He also would be more than willing to cancel his vacation plans to play in the tournament.
One thing that makes Weegar a great fit for Canada’s defence corps is that he provides a bit of everything. It was clear Canada prioritized balance on its blue line, taking players that have a physical side to their game, guys that can defend a lead and guys that can produce offense. Well, Weegar can certainly chip in offensively, quarterback a power play, kill penalties and he plays with a lot of physicality.
Weegar finished with nearly 200 hits and blocks last season and he’s trending for similar numbers again this season. He’s currently sitting with 108 blocks and 135 hits, proving he can impact the game at more than just the offensive end of the ice. Weegar is also averaging a whopping 23:27 per night and it doesn’t hurt that he’s a right-handed shot either.
Doughty may be the odds-on favourite to replace Pietrangelo, but he’s only going to play a handful of games prior to the tournament. The 4 Nations Face-Off is going to be fast-paced and Doughty may very well be still trying to find his footing having just returned from injury. I’m sure he can handle it and make adjustments, but a Doughty pick would come with a bit of risk.
Weegar seems a little safer to me and a versatile option that Canada could plug in anywhere and use in almost any situation.
Philipp Grubauer, Seattle Kraken
Philipp Grubauer’s days with the Seattle Kraken appear to be over.
Grubauer was placed on waivers by the Kraken this week and cleared on Thursday, following a disastrous campaign thus far. The 33-year-old owns a .866 save percentage this season and a .827 mark in January. Grubauer’s most recent three starts forced Seattle to act, as he gave up 13 goals on a combined 45 shots for a .711 save percentage. The Kraken simply couldn’t afford to keep Grubauer on the roster any longer.
It’s the latest in a string of goalies on lucrative contracts that have hit waivers or been sent to the AHL. Jack Campbell, Tristan Jarry, Ville Husso and Antti Raanta have all have found themselves in a similar position to Grubauer over the past two seasons and it further illustrates how risky goalie contracts can be.
Even when you think you have a decent sample size on a goaltender, handing out any substantial money and term is still quite scary. Take Grubauer, for example, who had a fairly impressive track record when the Kraken signed him. Before joining Seattle, Grubauer had 213 regular-season games to his credit, plus another 33 in the playoffs split between the Washington Capitals and Colorado Avalanche. Grubauer’s numbers were very good during that stretch, never posting worse than a .915 save percentage in any season.
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Seattle then handed him a six-year deal at nearly $6 million annually, but Grubauer never really handled a true starter’s workload before. He played 55 games in his first year with the Kraken, which was 15 more than he’d ever played in a season prior. Grubauer’s numbers took a huge hit that year and have never recovered.
I’m no goalie expert, but giving a netminder who you haven’t brought up and developed in your organization a lucrative contract with term feels like the riskiest road you can go down. Grubauer, Husso and Campbell are great examples of this. They had success with other organizations in smaller sample sizes, but their teams still weren’t comfortable locking them up. That probably should’ve been a red flag.
Ironically, the Kraken have just done the same thing with Joey Daccord. Seattle gave him the dreaded five x $5 million deal just before the season, when he had only played 60 games for the Kraken at that point and started his career with the Ottawa Senators. Colorado recently gave Mackenzie Blackwood roughly the same contract as Daccord, despite only being acquired a few weeks earlier. So far, those deals look okay, but as we know, with goalies, things can turn quickly.
Deals like the ones Jeremy Swayman and Jake Oettinger signed earlier this season, although more lucrative and lengthy, are actually a little safer, in my opinion. They are not without risk, but both Oettinger and Swayman were drafted and developed by their organizations for years before they committed to them long-term. That would give management the best intel and knowledge on what to expect from them going forward.
Even still, it’s not an exact science, and there might not be another position in pro sports that’s harder to forecast.
Dominik Shine, Detroit Red Wings
What a journey for Dominik Shine.
The 31-year-old played his first NHL game for the Red Wings this week after grinding away in the AHL for nine seasons. Shine joined the Grand Rapids Griffins after spending four years at Northern Michigan University and has posted at least 10 goals in each of the past four seasons. He becomes the oldest player to make his NHL debut since 2015.
If you’re scoring at home, Shine played 462 AHL games before finally getting the call from the Wings, but it was worth the wait. What makes this moment even more special for Shine is that he’s a Detroit native. He got to make his NHL debut for his hometown team and the organization he grew up watching.
This is the second feel-good debut we’ve seen in January. Ethen Frank played his first NHL game for the Washington Capitals earlier this month at the age of 26, where he also plied his craft in the AHL for several years. Frank actually picked up a point in each of his first three games, including tallying a pair of goals.
Shine’s debut wasn’t as memorable as Frank’s when it came to the scoresheet. He managed only two hits and a block in 9:50 of action and didn’t record a shot on goal. Still, Shine proved persistence pays off and no matter what happens in the future, he can say he was an NHL player. No one can take that away from him.
