DUNEDIN, Fla. — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is bound for free agency after the 2025 season as negotiations on a long-term extension with the Toronto Blue Jays hit a wall ahead of a deadline set by the all-star first baseman.
Last-ditch efforts aimed at securing the 26-year-old cornerstone with what would have easily been the richest contract in franchise history, and one of the biggest ever in baseball, picked up over the weekend.
But in a market shifted for young elite talents by the $765-million, 15-year contract the New York Mets gave Juan Soto in free agency, the Blue Jays and Guerrero couldn’t figure out how to price his peak years and beyond.
The short-term fallout of their failure to negotiate an extension is that the stakes attached to the 2025 season for the Blue Jays just spiked even higher. Not only is Guerrero set to reach the open market in the fall, but so too is Bo Bichette, another pending free-agent cornerstone who is now less likely to extend before becoming a free agent.
Their uncertain status beyond this season imperils the current competitive window, which the Blue Jays will have trouble propping open without the dynamic duo.
That the talks went right down to the wire isn’t surprising, as the baseball industry is largely deadline driven, with executives and agents alike tending to believe that only when a cutoff is imminent do the best offers hit the table.
In that way, Guerrero putting a cutoff of Monday night on talks that have run intermittently since the end of the 2021 season, forced the end game that didn’t produce an agreement.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Guerrero is guaranteed to leave next fall, as Aaron Judge turned down a $213.5-million, seven-year extension offer from the New York Yankees in the spring of 2022 only to return for $360 million over nine years. But the Yankees nearly lost their superstar slugger in the process, as the San Diego Padres made a late push and offered him $400 million.
If Guerrero — and/or Bichette — were to walk, the Blue Jays could theoretically reallocate the combined $46 million the duo is earning this year toward other free agents, seeking to take an alternate route to remaining competitive.
However, Guerrero, with his combination of power, average and zone control, all supported by top percentile underlying data, is the type of carrying player that rarely gets to market and there’s no guarantee the Blue Jays can sign the alternate players they pursue.
