Beware the Tampa Bay Lightning. They may be all the way back.
Consider this of the team that reached three Stanley Cup finals in a row from 2020-2022, but has been eliminated in the first round the past two years by division rivals Toronto and Florida: Since Jan. 7 (two months before the deadline), the Lightning are fourth in the league by points percentage (.708) behind only Winnipeg, Dallas and Washington.
In that time, Tampa has earned five more points than Florida, and nine more than Toronto. They are top-five in both goals scored and goals against. Andrei Vasilevsky has a better save percentage (.938) and more wins (13) than any other starter, and his 1.90 GAA is second to Connor Hellebuyck. Brandon Hagel has been a top-10 scorer, top-four at even strength, and Victor Hedman tied for the most points among all defencemen.
So when the Lightning are contending they throw caution to the wind and go hard at the all-in route. They previously acquired Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow around the deadline for first-round picks in 2020. They moved another first for David Savard in 2021. They moved two firsts for Hagel in 2022. Heck they took a confident swing at Tanner Jeannot in 2023 for picks in rounds 1-5.
That run of buying has left Tampa’s cupboard rather empty, but who cares about that when you’re winning?
“At the end of the day what guides us, what drives us, is trying to win a championship and that’s really hard. And in order to do that, you need a lot of good players. You can never have too many good players. So, what I’m trying to do is use my draft picks to acquire as many good players as possible to have the best team possible,” Tampa Bay Gm Julien BriseBois said.
“I’d rather have a lineup full of good players than bank a ton of draft picks.”
Today, Tampa Bay sits third in the Atlantic, three points behind both Florida and Toronto and, unless they can get past both of them, will face one in the first round again. That 2-3 series out of the Atlantic will be a doozy they’d all prefer to avoid, and so this trade deadline is something of an arms race between the three. Florida has already acquired Seth Jones, with plenty more cap space available to them with Matthew Tkachuk on LTIR. The Leafs have less flexibility, but are expected to make moves before Friday’s deadline.
The Lightning added more good players to their lineup Wednesday, re-acquiring feisty depth centre Yanni Gourde from Seattle, who won Cups with Tampa in 2020 and 2021, and Oliver Bjorkstrand, an underrated goal scorer with a career-high of 28. When the Columbus Blue Jackets shockingly swept Tampa out of the first round back in 2019, Bjorkstrand was credited with the game-winning goals in Games 3 and 4.
In return, Tampa Bay gave up two first-round picks (both top-10 protected), in 2026 and 2027. If either pick ends up in the top-10, they’d slide back a year. If that occurs, Seattle gains an extra third-round pick. They also moved 28-year-old depth forward Michael Eyssimont to the Kraken.
Gourde is a rental for now, and with salary retention going through both Seattle and Detroit in a three-way move, he lands in Tampa Bay making just $1.291 million against the cap. BriseBois seemed optimistic that an extension could get done. Bjorkstrand comes with a $5.4 million cap hit, but is signed for another season.
“It’s a trade where I think we’re getting better today, better tomorrow, and if we can keep Yanni, maybe even better going forward,” BriseBois said.
The move leaves Tampa Bay with about $819,000 in deadline day cap space. This is their all-in trade that shows GM Julien BriseBois believes his team can scale the mountain again.
With more on all the players involved in the trade, we turn to our scout Jason Bukala.
SCOUT’S ANALYSIS
The Lightning are playing some of their best hockey as the trade deadline approaches. Their recent eight-game winning streak was snapped on Monday night by their state rivals, the Panthers, but the Bolts turned the page and responded with a convincing 6-2 victory over the surging Blue Jackets Tuesday night.
They have put the Atlantic Division on notice that they are a team to be reckoned with down the stretch and into the playoffs. The trade they made with the Kraken makes them an even harder out and adds an extra layer of depth to their forward group.
To Tampa Bay: Yanni Gourde, Oliver Bjorkstrand, prospect Kyle Aucoin
Tampa Bay has the sixth-best power play in the NHL, operating at a 26 per cent success rate. They already roll out Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel, who both have 13 power-play goals this season, along with the forever dangerous Nikita Kucherov, and Victor Hedman. They now have the option to add Bjorkstrand to the mix to strike an extra layer of fear in their opponents. At worst Bjorkstrand upgrades their second power-play unit, depending on if the team wants to have a second unit that includes a combination of any of the above names and also Brandon Hagel.
Bjorkstrand isn’t going to kill penalties or wear down opponents with physical push back. He’s always averaged between 16-17 minutes per game of ice time, with all of his shifts coming at even strength or the power play. He’s a perennial 20-goal scorer who could see a spike in his production when he arrives in Tampa.
The Kraken didn’t have the forward depth the Lightning do, meaning players like Bjorkstrand were facing top checking units from their opponents on a nightly basis. Tampa becomes an even harder team to check with the arrival of Bjorkstrand and he will be facing softer match-ups as a by-product of Tampa’s forward depth. He should have more time and space to operate offensively.
Gourde makes a return to Tampa, and the Lightning know exactly what he can provide. Gourde hasn’t been healthy this season, just returning to Seattle’s lineup on Tuesday after two months, but assuming he is good to go for the remainder of the season and, especially, playoffs Tampa will benefit from his relentless compete and overall tenacity. He can provide a secondary layer of offence, but it’s the way he battles in the trenches that makes him a valuable addition to the roster.
Gourde averages over 15 minutes per game of ice time. He will take a regular shift at even strength and on the penalty kill for the Lightning. His face-off percentage has increased to just over 50 per cent this season, which is important considering he will be tasked with some key defensive zone draws.
Gourde was credited with 156 hits and 52 shot blocks last year. So far, in only 36 games this season, he has 59 hits and 26 shot blocks to go along with six goals and 11 assists. He’s a very valuable two-way/energy forward who still tracks up and down the ice effectively at the age of 33.
Aucoin is the son of former NHL defenceman Keith Aucoin. He’s a senior at Harvard who averages between 14-16 minutes per game of ice time at even strength and the penalty kill. He’s a stocky/strong defenceman who’s listed at six-feet, 185 pounds and best described as a defensive defenceman.
Aucoin doesn’t move the needle offensively. He doesn’t take a ton of risk with the puck on his stick or add a consistent extra layer off the rush. He keeps things simple in the defensive zone, engaging his check and quickly looking to outlet pucks up ice. At this stage of his development, I don’t see Aucoin as an NHL defenceman, but he might add to the depth of the Lightning’s organization in the minors.
To Seattle: Mikey Eyssimont
Eyssimont was only averaging 10 minutes of ice time per game in the 57 games he played with Tampa this year, but he did chip in with five goals and five assists offensively. He didn’t have a role on either special teams units.
Something Seattle does get with Eyssimont is a layer of physicality that can fill the void of losing Gourde. Despite his limited role, the two-way/energy forward has been credited with 82 hits and 19 shot blocks.
Draft Capital
The three-way deal between Tampa, Detroit, and Seattle involved salary retention and draft capital as well as roster players.
After the dust has settled, here’s a look at all three of the team’s draft boards moving forward, courtesy PuckPedia:
• It’s safe to say Tampa believes they have a chance to go on a deep run this year in the playoffs, and remain competitive moving forward. Their draft board would look entirely different if they weren’t confident in the makeup of their group.
• Seattle on the other hand is clearly envisioning re-tooling their roster. It will be interesting to see if they go the route of making all their draft selections or investing some of the capital in NHL roster players who can have immediate impact for their organization.
• Detroit is an interesting case study right now. They still have loads of cap space ($13 million on deadline day) to make moves this week and enhance their chances of making the playoffs. They are also flush with draft capital for the next three cycles.
Read more scouting reports from Bukala on PuckPedia
