The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week is:
• Is Tavares underappreciated?
• Kucherov making late-season push for the Hart
• Eichel deserves Selke consideration
• Can Saros recapture his game next season?
John Tavares, Toronto Maple Leafs
No one would blame John Tavares for feeling a little underappreciated.
Tavares had to concede the captaincy to Auston Matthews last summer, was passed up for Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off and is still sitting without a contract for next season. The 34-year-old has made it clear he’d like to remain a Toronto Maple Leaf, though there are a number of factors holding that up. First and foremost is the Mitch Marner contract situation, as the Leafs are likely in a holding pattern with their cap until that gets sorted out, meaning Tavares and Matthew Knies may have to wait for extensions.
In the meantime, all Tavares is doing is putting together a season where he’ll likely finish with the second-highest goal total of his career and is back to scoring over a point per game. Given his age and the fact he had a down year in 2023-24, many had declared Tavares a declining asset but he’s proving to be anything but. In a season where Matthews has missed significant time and hasn’t looked like himself in many of the games he’s played, Tavares’ stability at centre has been invaluable.
Not only that, but he hasn’t faded down the stretch which is a concern for someone his age. If anything, Tavares has elevated his game to another level since the 4 Nations Face-Off break.
That doesn’t even include his faceoff percentage, which is always one of the best in the league and currently sits at 58.2 per cent. He also won 13 of 17 draws against the Florida Panthers on Wednesday and scored a goal in arguably the biggest regular-season game the Leafs have played since Tavares joined the team. There has been talk of bumping Tavares down the lineup in the past, but this year there is no denying he deserves a rightful place in the top six.
Tavares has had a tremendous contract year and while he’s going to come significantly cheaper than the $11 million he’s making now, the question is by how much? Now that we know the cap is going up substantially, and given how well Tavares has performed, anything around $7 million a year seems like a no-brainer for the Leafs. Sure, there’s term to be concerned about here, but there’s reason to believe Tavares will age well. His game has never been built around speed, and he’s excellent around the net. It also sounds like Tavares is very committed to keeping himself in the best condition possible, and while there are no guarantees, if you were going to commit to a player with term in their mid-thirties, Tavares seems like one of the safer bets.
One of the reasons the Leafs haven’t been able to shift Tavares down the lineup is because improving your centre depth is easier said than done. It’s been something Toronto has been trying to achieve since they traded Nazem Kadri. They haven’t been able to land anyone significant in free agency down the middle and key trade acquisitions haven’t hit the mark or wanted to stick around long term. It’s simple to say the Leafs could sign someone in free agency come July, but is there really a better option available to replace Tavares?
Sam Bennett is a different type of player that could definitely work, though he feels destined to get something worked out with the Panthers. Then there are guys like Brock Nelson and Mikael Granlund, who don’t really seem like upgrades. Maybe Matt Duchene could be an option, but that feels more like a lateral move at best. For what Tavares gives you and at the price he’s likely going to command, it’s hard to imagine where Toronto can significantly improve down the middle in free agency this summer.
This would also be making the assumption that some of these players would choose Toronto as a destination. As historic of a franchise as the Leafs are, top players wanting to play here over the years have been few and far between. Steven Stamkos chose to re-sign in Tampa when he had a chance to come to Toronto, Ryan O’Reilly opted to leave for Nashville a couple of years ago and most recently, Brayden Schenn reportedly didn’t want to waive his no-trade clause when the Leafs pursued him at the deadline.
One player who did choose Toronto is Tavares. He was an elite player when he committed the prime of his career to the Maple Leafs, something rare to have happened to the organization but also to the city as a whole. Now, if the Leafs don’t show that same commitment to Tavares, they very well may come to regret it.
Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
Nathan MacKinnon and Leon Draisaitl have been at the centre of the Hart conversation this season, but the chatter around Nikita Kucherov is picking up. And rightfully so. Kucherov is suddenly battling for the top spot in league scoring, thanks to a ridiculous stretch of 19 points in 10 games and has everyone trying to avoid the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round.
Kucherov has had better seasons than this one. He’ll likely fall well short of the 144 points he notched last year that won him the Art Ross Trophy, but this campaign has seen some of his most important work. The Lightning’s Cup window is still open but not as wide as it once was. They are more top-heavy than ever before, putting more pressure on Kucherov to maintain his elite status even into his early thirties.
Tampa also had a pretty seismic shift in their roster, opting not to re-sign their captain, Steven Stamkos, last summer. Stamkos played 16 years with the organization, and even though the talented Jake Guentzel replaced him, there was no guarantee that it would go seamlessly. Stamkos was a fixture on the power play and a frequent target of Kucherov passes, scoring 39 points on the man advantage a year ago. Despite no longer having Stamkos as a one-timer option on the off-wing, the Lightning man advantage is still clicking at a great rate, and Guentzel is tied for the league lead with 16 power-play goals while Kucherov leads the NHL with 33 power-play assists.
The Lightning also did get younger by replacing Stamkos with Guentzel, and by bolstering their forward group at the deadline along with a resurgence from Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa looks scarier than they’ve been in quite some time. It’s a lot easier for the Lightning to continue to sell off futures to stay competitive, knowing they have an elite talent like Kucherov, who will exceed 100 points every year and make anyone he plays with better.
It’s going to be a fascinating race over the final two weeks for the top spot in the Atlantic. Whoever finishes in second and third is going to have a very difficult matchup on their hands right out of the gate. There are no easy opponents in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but one thing is for sure: no one wants to see Tampa and Kucherov in the opening round.
Jack Eichel, Vegas Golden Knights
In addition to Kucherov, you could also argue Jack Eichel deserves some Hart votes. Eichel probably won’t be an MVP finalist, but he may have a more legitimate case for the Selke this season.
The Vegas Golden Knights centre has shattered the franchise record for points in a single season and has a realistic chance to finish with 100 for the first time. Eichel has also been just as important on the defensive end for Vegas this season. William Karlsson has missed nearly half the year, and Eichel has been forced to step up his responsibilities in his own end.
Eichel is starting the highest percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone in his career this season, and among players in the top 20 in scoring, only Mitch Marner and Brandon Hagel have started in the defensive zone more often than Eichel. He’s also been a key contributor to the Golden Knights penalty kill, averaging more than a minute and a half per game of ice time while shorthanded.
Not only that, but Vegas has dominated the minutes that Eichel has been on the ice. Prior to Thursday night’s game, at five-on-five, they are out-chancing their opponents 563-476 when Eichel is out there and have 65 goals to only 38 against, according to Sportsnet Stats. When you include power play and shorthanded as well, those numbers jump to 891-687 for scoring chances and 132-70 for goals.
The Selke race may be a bit more wide open this year as well. Typically, Aleksander Barkov is the favourite and he still very well may win it, but he’s missed a bunch of time with injury and is now hurt again. He’s also a minus-3 on the year which is unheard of for him. Plus/minus might not be the best stat out there but it’s rare to have a Selke winner who’s a minus.
There are plenty of candidates worthy of consideration for the Selke this year, so Eichel will need a strong finish to stand out from the crowd. But there’s no denying he’s shown us different elements of his game this year and is demonstrating he can be a high-end two-way player.
Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators
To say things haven’t gone well for the Nashville Predators this season is putting it mildly.
After an impressive second-half march to the post-season in 2023-24, Nashville loaded up in free agency, and expectations were sky-high. Things obviously haven’t gone as planned, though, as the Preds sit 30th overall in the standings and have long since been eliminated from playoff contention. There are a number of reasons why Nashville has struggled, including players like Ryan O’Reilly regressing offensively, new acquisitions taking time to gel and Roman Josi’s injury. But Juuse Saros’ apparent decline may be the most concerning.
Saros is down to a .894 save percentage on the season, falling from .906 a year ago and plummeting from .919 the year before that. What’s more concerning? Saros saved 30 goals above expected two seasons ago, and this year he’s at minus-8.3. That’s a drastic dropoff.
There are a few reasons Nashville should be worried going forward, with the main one being Saros’ age and workload. He’ll turn 30 this month, and Saros has been one of the busiest goaltenders over the past few seasons. Between 2021-22 and 2023-14, Saros has twice led the league in shots faced, saves and minutes played. He’s averaged 65 starts per season over that stretch and he will likely fall just short of 60 this year. The Predators are going to have to find a way to reduce Saros’ workload as he enters his thirties.
That’s going to be hard to do because Nashville is thin in net. They opted to invest in Saros long term, to the tune of a massive eight-year deal worth $7.7 million per season that takes him to age 38. It was a risky contract, given his age and the fact that they had Yaroslav Askarov waiting in the wings. Askarov would’ve been the perfect successor to Saros and the pair could’ve turned into a solid tandem, but when the Predators invested so heavily in Saros, there was really no way for Askarov to get significant playing time in Nashville.
With Askarov dealt to San Jose, general manager Barry Trotz has bet everything on Saros aging well and recapturing his form. It’s not going to be long before that contract becomes immovable, and even with the cap rising, it’s going to be hard for the Predators to add another quality goaltender when they’re already paying their starter almost $8 million per season.
Nashville’s core is one of the oldest in the league, with Filip Forsberg, Steven Stamkos, Roman Josi, Jonathan Marchessault, Ryan O’Reilly and Brady Skjei all north of 30. If the Predators hope to get the most out of this group over the next few seasons, they will need a goaltender to carry them for stretches. There was a time when there was no question Saros could handle that challenge, but now there’s far less certainty around his game.
