TORONTO — The implications of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s pending deal with the Toronto Blue Jays are far reaching, but at its core this agreement happened because it should benefit all involved.
It’s a huge number — $500 million over 14 years with no deferrals or opt-outs — so of course there’s risk here, and certainly some sticker shock. But there’s rarely reward without risk in baseball, so Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins got this across the finish line and a player with Hall of Fame upside stays in Toronto for the rest of his career.
Although hope seemed lost after Guerrero Jr.’s spring training deadline passed without a deal, the sides resumed talks ahead of Opening Day. There was enough traction for Guerrero Jr.’s agents at Magnus Sports to make the trip to Toronto and spend much of opening weekend watching the Blue Jays in a suite with some or the organization’s top executives. Then, late Sunday night, a deal was completed.
Will it work as intended? That answer will reveal itself over the next decade and a half. But this is an elite 26-year-old hitter whose biggest moments should still be ahead of him. There’s no guarantee he’s a Hall of Fame player, but he has a real chance to become one, with 21.6 wins above replacement just a few weeks removed from 26th birthday.
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The deal also reflects a commitment to winning from the team and significantly improves the Blue Jays’ offensive core for 2026 and beyond. It took a while, but words turned to action as the optimism Guerrero Jr., Shapiro and Atkins each spoke of led to a deal.
From a player perspective, Guerrero Jr. doesn’t get to hear from the likes of the Mets, Red Sox and Yankees in free agency, but the $500-million guarantee speaks for itself. This is a strong deal on the player side, surpassing the likes of Shohei Ohtani ($437,830,563), Mookie Betts ($365 million), Mike Trout ($360 million) and Aaron Judge ($360 million) to become the second-biggest contract in baseball history, behind only Juan Soto ($765 million). It’s a clear win for Guerrero Jr., who has always liked playing in Toronto and now gets the chance to stay while earning $35.71 million per season through age 40.
Big picture, then, this looks like a win-win deal. But there are still many angles worth examining, including the balance of risk and reward in play, what a projected aging curve might look like and what kind of legacy Guerrero Jr. could leave.
To start, let’s acknowledge the risk. It’s undeniable that first basemen such as Ryan Howard, Chris Davis and Prince Fielder all signed massive deals that later backfired. But while the likes of Howard and Davis represent cautionary tales, they never controlled the strike zone the way Guerrero Jr. does or succeeded against big-league pitching at such a young age. He’s a complete hitter with elite quality of contact and bat speed metrics. Injuries can stop any player — there’s risk inherent in every deal this big — yet the skill level here is undeniable.
Plus, other sluggers aged far better than the likes of Howard and Fielder. The first decade of Guerrero Jr.’s new deal corresponds with his age 27-36 seasons, and for the sake of comparison other bat-first players excelled during that 10-year period, including his father Vladimir Guerrero Sr. (3.5 WAR per season), David Ortiz (3.7 WAR per season), Jose Bautista (3.8 WAR per season), Miguel Cabrera (4.3 WAR per season), Joey Votto (4.6 WAR per season), Paul Goldschmidt (4.8 WAR per season), Freddie Freeman (4.9 WAR per season from age 27-present) and Albert Pujols (5.5 WAR per season).
If Guerrero Jr.’s next decade looks like that, this deal will prove to be a worthwhile investment. Now, granted, those players never earned $500 million, but contract inflation means present-day deals are simply bigger than they used to be. Is Garrett Crochet a better pitcher than Roger Clemens? Not even close. Crochet’s career innings total (232) is basically a season’s worth for Clemens, but Crochet’s recent $170-million deal will earn him more than the seven-time Cy Young winner earned over the course of his 24-year career. As league revenue grows, so do player salaries.
In time, the likes of Gunnar Henderson or Elly De La Cruz and Paul Skenes may surpass Guerrero Jr.’s contract and even Soto’s. Fifteen years from now, it’s highly unlikely $35.71 million will be a shocking number because as inflation continues, the cost of impact players will increase steadily. If the Blue Jays project Guerrero Jr. to age along these lines, the cost of the deal looks fair for both sides, especially since the playoffs aren’t included in WAR and some of Guerrero Jr.’s biggest swings could come in October.
|
Year |
Year of deal |
Age |
Cost of 1.0 WAR |
WAR |
Value |
Cost |
|
2026 |
1 |
27 |
10.30 |
5 |
51.50 |
35.71 |
|
2027 |
2 |
28 |
10.61 |
5 |
53.05 |
35.71 |
|
2028 |
3 |
29 |
10.93 |
4.5 |
49.17 |
35.71 |
|
2029 |
4 |
30 |
11.26 |
4.5 |
50.65 |
35.71 |
|
2030 |
5 |
31 |
11.59 |
4 |
46.37 |
35.71 |
|
2031 |
6 |
32 |
11.94 |
4 |
47.76 |
35.71 |
|
2032 |
7 |
33 |
12.30 |
3.5 |
43.05 |
35.71 |
|
2033 |
8 |
34 |
12.67 |
3 |
38.00 |
35.71 |
|
2034 |
9 |
35 |
13.05 |
2.5 |
32.62 |
35.71 |
|
2035 |
10 |
36 |
13.44 |
2 |
26.88 |
35.71 |
|
2036 |
11 |
37 |
13.84 |
1.5 |
20.76 |
35.71 |
|
2037 |
12 |
38 |
14.26 |
1.5 |
21.39 |
35.71 |
|
2038 |
13 |
39 |
14.69 |
1 |
14.69 |
35.71 |
|
2039 |
14 |
40 |
15.13 |
0.5 |
7.56 |
35.71 |
|
Total |
|
|
|
42.5 |
503.44 |
500 |
It’s an optimistic forecast, but not an outrageous one considering Guerrero Jr. already has two six WAR seasons to his name. Crucially, he’s young enough that most of his prime is still ahead of him. Keep in mind, the 26-year-old Guerrero Jr. is younger than reigning Rookie of the Year Luis Gil and born the same year as Alan Roden, a top prospect who recently debuted with the Blue Jays.
In all of MLB history, only 17 players played as often (819 games) and hit as well (137 OPS+) as Guerrero Jr. through age-25, a list including the likes of Ty Cobb, Henry Aaron, Bryce Harper and Cabrera.
Meanwhile, the timing of the deal shows that the spring-training deadline set by Guerrero Jr. was never a hard deadline. Nor, for that matter, was the Blue Jays’ best offer in February truly their best offer, though at the time Shapiro said the front office had already gone “past our value.” Both sides used what leverage they had, and in this case Guerrero Jr. had more of it.
On the field, this all sets up the possibility that Guerrero Jr. could build a lasting legacy with the Blue Jays. Assuming he remains in Toronto for the duration of the contract, he has a good chance to become the all-time franchise leader in hits (Tony Fernandez leads with 1,583), home runs (Carlos Delgado, 336), RBI (Delgado, 1,058) and even WAR (Dave Stieb, 56.9).
These are the kinds of players you build around if your market allows for it, and to the Blue Jays’ credit they’re acting like a big-market team here. This deal may also make the Blue Jays a more appealing destination for others, including Bo Bichette, who has said his preference would be to win alongside Guerrero Jr. in Toronto.
One way or another, there’s a clear direction for the Blue Jays, who can now point to a core including Guerrero Jr., Andres Gimenez, Anthony Santander and the recently extended Alejandro Kirk. They need a real influx of young pitching to pair with that group of position players, so they must draft and develop arms far more effectively, but this is a promising start.
If Guerrero Jr. continues on this path, the Blue Jays will have many more chances to build around an elite hitter in his prime, reaching heights that have eluded them for the early part of the superstar first baseman’s career. And while the back end of this deal probably won’t look great, the first half has a chance to make it all worthwhile.
