I’ll save you much preamble, as you’re familiar with what’s going on. Here’s which teams in the Western Conference I think have advantages and disadvantages as we head into Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
COLORADO at DALLAS
Season series: Colorado went 2-1, while the Stars grabbed three points, losing the final meeting in March in overtime.
The breakdown: Let’s talk about two very good teams. Or at least what I think are two very good teams, as the Dallas Stars are in the midst of a six-game losing streak heading into their Wednesday-night matchup with the Nashville Predators. But, they had won seven in a row before this significant skid, so we’re gonna lean on, “You’re never as good as you think when it’s going well, or as bad as you think when you’re struggling.”
Both teams score at a rate inside the league’s top six, while the Stars have done a bit better job keeping pucks out of their net. Most of that can be attributed to the fact that the Stars have the second-best combined team save percentage this season (.907), while the Avs are 18th (at .891).
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By expected goals for and against, the Avs look a bit better, though it’s worth noting both teams are in a cluster of teams that the numbers really like. (The others: Vegas, Tampa Bay, Edmonton, Carolina and, on the very outer fringes of that group, Washington.)
I’ll be keeping an eye on who can get saves, as the Avs goalies have improved from what they opened the season with and the Stars goalies are scuffling.
Also, keep another eye on who can get healthy, as the Stars have been waiting on Miro Heiskanen, Tyler Seguin — who is apparently close to playing — and they have a few players who are “day to day.” The Avs will be returning Gabriel Landeskog (!!) and are waiting on Josh Manson.
My pick: Colorado in 6
Massive roster overhaul under-sells some of their season-long numbers, Dallas is scuffling right now and if they don’t get goaltending, they’re gonna have a tough time.
EDMONTON at LOS ANGELES
Season series: The Kings went 3-0-1, but that doesn’t exactly tell the tale of the tape. In their last matchup, the Oilers couldn’t play the core of their team, so we should void that one.
The breakdown: This is a fun series because we’ve got a stylistic contrast. The Kings are one of the top defensive teams in the NHL, finishing second in goals against per game, while the Oilers were 16th. It doesn’t hurt L.A. that Darcy Kuemper may end up a Vezina finalist after his superb season.
And while they’re similar in actual offensive output on the season, the Oilers create way, way more by expected goals. When they’re healthy, and those top two guys of theirs are available, Edmonton is an absolute handful to defend.
One place of concern for the Kings is the power play. If this is going to be a physical series, and they can’t score power-play goals (28th in the regular season), it should free up the Oilers to be a bit nastier. If they get Evander Kane and/or Trent Frederic back at some point, that would be a big help.
This injury thing, though, it’s a very real problem for Edmonton. I think they’re the better team by a good distance when healthy, but if guys are rushing back trying to play through being at like 80 per cent, particularly if they’ve had time off, it’s tough to see them being able to be at their best.
My pick: Edmonton in 6
In the end, one of my fundamental hockey beliefs in that elite difference-makers are what pulls teams through tight moments. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are absolute forces of post-season nature, and I just can’t bet against them, I can’t. Scores should be close and nobody can turn a game in a moment like those guys.
ST. LOUIS at WINNIPEG
Season series: Jets won 3-1, while the Blues took three points out of the four games. The first three games were all road victories, while the sole home win came in their final meeting on April 7, when the Jets ended the Blues’ 12-game win streak.
The breakdown: Honestly, the Jets deserved better than drawing the Blues to open the playoffs, as St. Louis was outright bad until it added new coach Jim Montgomery, and it’s been a wagon for about two months now. But the Jets have the advantage of, y’know, being the better team, so there’s that.
If you sort the NHL team stats columns for goals for per game, goals against, power play and penalty kill, there’s not a single one where the Jets aren’t a minimum of 10 spots higher in the rankings. That holds for “team save percentage,” where the Jets sit first and the Blues 13th.
The ol’ graph of “expected goals for and against” shows the Jets are a bit better offensively, while they’re comparable defensively.
The Blues and Jets have one thing in common: you look at both rosters and it’s hard to find a true soft spot, as they’re both solid throughout. The Jets losing Nik Ehlers to a freak linesman collision is a massive bummer, but they’re deep enough that they should be able to survive his absence a couple games.
My pick: Jets in 6
If both teams are “solid throughout,” I like the Jets a bit better in every conceivable spot. I like their top end scorers more. I like the grit of their grittier bottom six more. Like their goalie more. Defence too.
VEGAS at MINNESOTA
Season series: The Golden Knights mopped up the Wild, with three regulation victories, outscoring them 12-4 along the way. In their last matchup, March 25 in Minnesota, Jack Eichel scored three.
The breakdown: Every team loves having the psychological advantage of “nobody believed in us,” so I’m here to be the public face of that stance for the Minnesota Wild. They’ve officially got nothing to lose!
By pretty much every way I can figure it, nobody has a more optimistic playoff road ahead than Vegas. The Golden Knights’ underlying numbers are sparkling, with top-end expected goals for and against numbers. They’re top-five in goals for per game, goals against, and power play, with only their penalty kill raising any red flags (and the Wild are 20th in power-play percentage).
They get good goaltending and are mostly healthy, having had plenty of rest leading in to Round 1.
Yes, the Wild will have Kirill “the Thrill” Kaprizov back. And yes, they defend well, and they have received exceptional goaltending from Filip Gustavsson. They’re no pushover. But.
My pick: Vegas in 5
The Knights are too stacked for an upset here. That the Wild keep games close means they’ll probably win at least one, but in the end, Vegas will pull through.
