ARLINGTON, Texas — To better understand why the Toronto Blue Jays continue to fluctuate within a narrow band on either side of the .500 mark, and whether they’re ever going to sustainably break free from it, keep an eye on their run-differential.
While there are always anomalies, the number is generally a strong predictor of a team’s win-loss record and capacity for success. At minus-26 after Monday afternoon’s 2-1 win over the Texas Rangers behind Kevin Gausman’s eight brilliant innings, the Blue Jays are 26-27 because they haven’t been able to create enough separation between their run creation and run prevention.
Until they either score more or give up less, if not ideally do both, they’re destined to remain in the two-steps-forward, two-steps-back cycle that’s marked the first third of their 2025 season.
“That’s a real thing,” manager John Schneider said of his team’s run-differential. “When there’s a big inconsistency, if you’re down a lot, it’s hard to sustain, you know what I mean? So if you’re doing things every single day consistently, that’s where you can run into a hot streak, where you get into, OK, you’re a plus-20, plus-30, plus-40.”
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The Blue Jays have not, of course, been doing things consistently, which is also why so many of their games have been close, one way or another.
Monday’s affair felt so familiar, as after Daulton Varsho’s first-inning solo shot opened the scoring, they squandered multiple chances to open the game up after getting only one run in the fourth on an Alejandro Kirk sacrifice fly when they put runners on second and third to open the inning. They then wasted first and second with one out in the fifth, second and third with one out in the sixth and two on and none out in the eighth.
As a result, Gausman needed to be as dominant as he was, allowing just five hits with six strikeouts, since there was precious little room to breathe, especially after Wyatt Langford’s solo shot in the bottom of the fourth cut the Blue Jays’ lead to 2-1.
Gausman kept the game there until the ninth, when Jeff Hoffman locked it down for his 11th save.
Now, there’s a pathway, albeit a particularly difficult and unlikely one, to winning steadily in such fashion, but as Schneider noted, “the margins of error a little bit bigger when you are creating some more runs, it makes margins of error bigger for our own pitchers and you’re not in a one-run battle every single night where every little thing is a big momentum swing.”
To that end, all the elements that tie into run creation and prevention were a focus during the pre-game hitters meeting, in part because the Blue Jays followed a stirring sweep of the San Diego Padres by scoring twice while getting swept at the Tampa Bay Rays.
Sunday’s 13-0 loss, in particular, capped a poor weekend of play, which can happen, but is also why Schneider felt “there are certain parts of the season you really have to revisit it, which is kind of where we’re at right now.” He described facing the Rangers trio of Jacob deGrom, Nate Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle this week as “a big test here” requiring “a complete offensive game, not just in the box, but on the bases.”
“This is a big series,” he added later. “I know it’s May, but every game is important. The way we played in Tampa turned this into a little bit of a bigger series.”
