Offence is not supposed to be an issue for the Dallas Stars. They consistently are among the highest-scoring teams in the NHL, finishing this regular season tied for third with 3.35 goals per game.
But the Stars’ offensive attack, specifically at 5-on-5, has been ineffectual in the Western Conference final. Outside of a power-play-fuelled flurry in their Game 1 comeback win against the Edmonton Oilers, the Stars have struggled to keep up on the offensive end. Dallas has scored three 5-on-5 goals in as many games — six fewer than Edmonton.
The Stars, who were shut out once in the regular season in their 79th game, have been blanked four times in 16 playoff games. They have been held to one goal or fewer at 5-on-5 in 10 of their 16 games this post-season.
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Stanley Cup Playoffs on Sportsnet
The Edmonton Oilers host the Dallas Stars in Game 4 of the Western Conference Final with a chance to go up 3-1 in the series. Watch the game live on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ on Tuesday with coverage beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET/ 5:30 p.m. MT.
Part of the problem is that the Stars have had a harder time setting up in the slot. During the regular season, the Stars averaged the fifth-most slot-driving plays (carries and passes) per game at 5-on-5 (23.4), which helped them generate the second-most inner-slot shots on net (5.71). Those numbers are down considerably in the playoffs; Dallas is averaging 19.4 slot-driving plays (ninth) and 4.19 inner-slot shots (12th) per game, respectively.
Before his team’s 6-1 loss Sunday, Stars coach Pete DeBoer responded defiantly when asked to explain Dallas’ offensive woes.
“The story here is how a team has gutted through two rounds without two of (its) best players,” DeBoer told reporters. “Who cares about the stats? Who cares about the 5-on-5? It’s what you do from here on in. … You guys and the analytics and the 5-on-5 stuff, take a look at the path we’ve been on and what we’ve dealt with. That probably explains most of it. It’s probably why the analytics are trending the other way now, right? We’re starting to get some guys healthy.”
Dallas survived the first round against the Colorado Avalanche despite missing top forward Jason Robertson, who had 80 points in the regular season, and No. 1 defenceman Miro Heiskanen because of injuries. Mikko Rantanen carried the offence almost single-handedly, factoring on 11 of the Stars’ 14 goals over the final three games of the series, including five of their eight 5-on-5 goals during that stretch.
Since exploding for 18 points in a seven-game span, Rantanen has two assists in his past five games, no longer providing cover for his underperforming teammates.
Widely considered the deepest team in the league, Dallas has not flexed those muscles in these playoffs. The second line of Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin has been on the ice for two Stars goals at 5-on-5 in 118:24 of ice time. Both goals came in the first round. Dallas’ third line — Jamie Benn, Wyatt Johnston and Evgenii Dadonov — has been outscored 6-4.
Duchene, whose 82 points (30 goals) led the Stars this season, has scored once in the post-season. Johnston (33 goals) has generated 47 scoring chances in all situations, fourth most in the league, but only one has entered the net. In all, the Stars’ six 20-goal scorers — Robertson, Johnston, Duchene, Marchment, Dadonov and Roope Hintz — have 13 among them (six at 5-on-5).
Just when the Stars’ lineup was at its most optimal, Hintz suffered an injury in Game 2 after being slashed in the leg by Oilers defenceman Darnell Nurse. Dallas’ No. 1 centre did not play Sunday, stripping the team of one third of its only consistent scoring line. Hintz, Rantanen and Mikael Granlund have outscored opponents 7-2 at 5-on-5.
Robertson replaced Hintz to underwhelming results; Edmonton outscored Dallas 2-0 at 5-on-5, and the Stars’ top line generated 40.6 per cent of the expected goals in 11:16 of ice time. (Hintz is expected to be a game-time decision Tuesday in Game 4.)
DeBoer, however, is right when he says that the Stars’ offensive process has been gradually improving. Their average of high-danger scoring chances per game at 5-on-5 has increased in each round; Dallas generated 5.9 high-danger chances against Colorado and seven against the Winnipeg Jets in Round 2. Through three games against the Oilers, the Stars are averaging 9.7 high-danger chances at 5-on-5.
On Sunday, Dallas registered 3.79 expected goals at 5-on-5 — its second-highest output of the playoffs. The Stars recorded 2.56 expected goals at 5-on-5 in the second period alone, out-chancing the Oilers 12-9 and outshooting them 5-2 from the inner slot. Robertson scored his first goal of the playoffs on a deflection right in front of the net.
“(The) second period was the staple (of) how we need to play against this team,” Rantanen told reporters. “At 5-on-5, we’ve got to find a way to finish our chances a little bit more. Obviously, (Oilers goaltender Stuart) Skinner is making good saves, but we’ve got to make life harder for him.”
As indicated by the Stars’ lopsided loss Sunday, holding out hope that Rantanen catches fire again or Jake Oettinger (7.1 goals saved above expected through two rounds) transforms back into a brick wall is not an effective strategy. The Stars are at risk of being run off the rink if their offence remains missing.
“Their best player (Connor McDavid) scored last game,” DeBoer told reporters Monday. “This time of year, you rely on that. Now having said that, their best player didn’t score a lot before this series and they had other guys carry them. We have to get some of that, too. We can’t wait around for (Rantanen) to score. … We’re generating enough chances to score. We’ve got to finish.”
All stats via Sportlogiq
