What’s behind Guerrero Jr.’s solid-but-not-elite stretch for Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays‘ offence has taken off in recent weeks, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been more of a solid contributor than a driving force.

While he’s produced a .294/.390/.431 line since May 28, that’s significantly lower than the MLB-best .303/.357/.514 Toronto has managed as a team. That’s not an issue as long as guys like Alejandro Kirk, George Springer and Addison Barger are cooking, but that trio — and the rest of the Blue Jays lineup — can’t be counted on to keep up their stellar pace.

For Toronto to continue enjoying the kind of success it has had lately, at a certain point, the team will need something closer to peak Vladdy.

The team has been in this position with Guerrero a few times in recent years. He’s undoubtedly performing well overall but lagging behind lofty expectations, particularly in the power department. The 26-year-old is indisputably crushing the baseball, but it’s not leading to truly elite results.

These underlying numbers suggest Guerrero is destroying the ball while controlling the strike zone at an impressive level, which would seem to be a recipe for offensive greatness:

Unfortunately for Guerrero, the result is a 129 wRC+, which ranks 38th among 161 qualified hitters. That number is fueled by strong walk and strikeout rates, as his isolated power (.143) ranks 112th.

Once again, we’ve been here before. 

Early in the slugger’s career, a high groundball rate was often seen as the reason that his hard contact didn’t result in elite power. Guerrero’s flat attack angle and low launch angle will probably always put some downward pressure on his power output, but his groundball rate (47.4 per cent) is just about equal to what he did in his 2024 season (47.7 per cent). His launch and attack angle averages are also both within one degree.

In other words, this is the same swing that helped him produce a .522 SLG last season, powered by the same elite bat speed.

He’s also has approximately the same batted ball profile as in 2024, beyond just the groundballs:

If Guerrero is hitting the same kind of batted balls as last year and maintaining elite exit velocity, it’s not obvious where his power is leaking out.

A closer look shows that the direction of his hits is playing a role. Back during Guerrero’s down 2023 season, he had issues with hitting long harmless flyballs to centre field. This year, he’s run into difficulty by putting an uncomfortable number of balls the other way. Specifically, his 29.1 per cent opposite-field rate would be a career high and sits well above his average (24.0 per cent).

From his rookie season through the end of 2024, this wouldn’t be a cause for concern, as he did approximately as much damage to right field as he did to left:

This season, a pulled ball from Guerrero is as dangerous as ever — if not more so — but he hasn’t done much damage going the other way.

Guerrero has not lost the strength or hitting ability it takes to generate opposite-field power, but it hasn’t come this season. The pitches he’s striking the other way provide a clue as to why.

In previous years, Guerrero had plenty of success going with pitches over the middle or on the outside corner and swatting them on a line to right. If you imagine an impressive Vladdy opposite-field hit, it probably looks something like this:

Unsurprisingly, the heatmap for Guerrero’s career opposite-field extra-base hits doesn’t include many inside pitches:

Guerrero makes happen the other way on pitches that allow him to extend his arms and drive the ball. It’s not impossible to hit an inside pitch the other way with authority, but it’s not a likely outcome.

This season, we’ve seen plenty of instances of Guerrero taking inside pitches the other way, resulting in medium-length flies with virtually no chance to become extra-base hits like this example:

Compared to the rest of his career, a much higher percentage of his balls the other way have come on inside pitches he’s been jammed by, as opposed to offerings outside he can ride to right.

Pushing primarily middle-in pitches the other way has resulted in an opposite-field spray chart that includes an admirable amount of singles but very little power — and no home runs:

In a best-case scenario for the Blue Jays, Guerrero would be able to pull more balls in the air as his raw power in that direction is beyond reproach. 

Considering he’s never posted a pulled fly ball rate at even the MLB average, it might be unfair to expect him to suddenly channel his power in a more José Bautista-esque manner, though. His rate of pulled flyballs and liners (12.7 per cent) is also exceedingly similar to what he produced during his excellent 2024 (12.0 per cent).

Instead, Guerrero’s power would come to the fore if his directional hitting better matched the pitches he received. Trying to discourage attacking the opposite field would be counterproductive for a hitter who has had so much success with it in the past. However, Vladdy is likely to get his power stroke going if he does a better job of getting in front of inside pitches and going with what he gets outside.

One of the most famous performances of his career — his two-home run effort against Gerrit Cole in 2022 — definitively proved there isn’t an inside pitch his ultra-quick bat can’t get to.

When he starts hunting those pitches as opposed to reacting to them, the floodgates of Vladdy’s power should open. Some passivity has crept into his game this season as his swing rate (41.8 per cent), zone swing rate (62.3 per cent) and first-pitch swing rate (24.0 per cent) have all fallen to career lows. His averages in those categories are 48.0 per cent, 70.9 per cent, and 35.4 per cent, respectively. 

An abundance of soft opposite-field contact could be a symptom of a hitter who is late or in-between on swing decisions.

The fact that Guerrero can be seemingly so far from his best and remain such a productive hitter speaks to his immense talent. Even if it’s rarely felt like the Blue Jays’ offence has been carried by his bat this year, he’s still helped the team far more than he’s hurt it, particularly with his defence grading significantly better than his career norms. Plenty of hitters would be over the moon to have a .801 OPS early in June.

While all of that is true, Guerrero is meant to be Toronto’s offensive centrepiece for the foreseeable future. Until he can recapture his opposite-field pop, he probably won’t reach that standard. The lack of a fully-realized Vladdy isn’t hurting the Blue Jays right now, but as other bats cool off, they may come to need a little more from him.

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