TORONTO – As the trade deadline approaches, it can be tempting for fans and even team personnel to ask ‘who can we get?’
First, though, another question must be answered: ‘what do we need?’ For most contenders, that answer will evolve a little over time — and that’s especially true in Toronto, where significant players have a chance to impact the starting rotation, bullpen and lineup if they return from injuries as planned.
Health’s a big variable here, but it isn’t the only thing to watch, as on-field performance will shape the Blue Jays’ summer wish list, too. Once we’re closer to the deadline, it’ll be time to identify potential targets for the Blue Jays, who will be buyers next month barring a collapse in the standings.
But first, let’s look internally at what will shape their needs and next steps:
Power check
Speaking to the media over the weekend, Blue Jays manager John Schneider acknowledged that Anthony Santander’s left shoulder injury isn’t healing as quickly as the team anticipated.
“It hasn’t come back on an MRI or a test where it’s like, ‘Hey, this was five times worse than what we initially thought,’” Schneider said. “He was probably playing through a little bit more than what he should have at the time. I thought he’d be a little bit further along for sure by now.”
Santander has been on the injured list since May 30, and while he has resumed throwing, he’s not hitting yet. Once he does start swinging, he’ll need some time to work through his mechanics from both sides of the plate and some time to find his timing in rehab games.
All things considered, then, Santander is further away than Daulton Varsho, who could be back in rehab games by Tuesday with a possible return to the majors around the beginning of July. Both have real power when healthy, so their status will go a long way toward determining how much offence the Blue Jays need.
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Bench check
Assuming Santander and Varsho do return as planned, the Blue Jays should be in a pretty good place from a position player standpoint. Tyler Heineman has been incredible as the backup catcher, Myles Straw fits nicely as a bench outfielder and Addison Barger and Ernie Clement continue to emerge as mainstays in the lineup.
But one question remaining for the Blue Jays is whether Davis Schneider makes sense as the team’s unofficial lefty masher. It’s an important role since outfielders like Varsho, Barger, Alan Roden, Will Robertson and Nathan Lukes all bat left-handed, creating pinch hit opportunities later in games or against lefty starters.
So far, Schneider hasn’t had many chances, posting a .723 OPS with one home run in 38 plate appearances against lefties. That’s a small sample, but as the month unfolds his performance should dictate the extent to which the Blue Jays pursue outside help.
Bullpen upside needed
Basically every contender ends up seeking bullpen help — and that will include the Blue Jays. The question here is how much help the Blue Jays will need from outside the organization, and the progress of two rehabbing pitchers will shape that answer.
With Nick Sandlin now back in the major-league bullpen, the two relievers working their way back to the team are Ryan Burr and Yimi Garcia. Burr pitched at triple-A Saturday, striking out two of the three batters he faced on his way to a scoreless inning, while Garcia’s slated to pitch in a rehab game Monday.
In a best-case scenario, they’d join the likes of Jeff Hoffman, Yariel Rodriguez, Braydon Fisher, Brendon Little and Mason Fluharty in the big-league bullpen, giving the Blue Jays quality late-game options. But there are also questions with that currently healthy group, starting with Hoffman.
The Blue Jays’ new closer got off to a great start, with 22 strikeouts compared to one walk and one home run allowed for a 1.17 ERA through the end of April. Yet since then he has 22 strikeouts compared to nine walks and seven homers allowed for a 9.00 ERA.
Even if Hoffman gets back on track, there’s room for another swing-and-miss arm who could help in October. That’s essentially an evergreen need for serious contenders, and it’s especially relevant for a Blue Jays team that doesn’t have shutdown starting pitching to rival, say, the Philadelphia Phillies or San Diego Padres.
With that in mind, it’s already apparent that another elite reliever would help the Blue Jays. What the next month should reveal is how much middle relief is required to fill out the ‘pen, if any.
Rotation in flux
The outlook for the Blue Jays’ rotation will likely look much different in a month, by which point it’ll be clear how Max Scherzer’s thumb is responding to the challenge of pitching in big-league games.
Scherzer, who’s slated to return to the rotation against the Guardians on Wednesday, could give the Blue Jays an impact arm capable of starting playoff games. Yet as the first three months of the season have shown, there’s also zero guarantee he reaches that upside.
The next month will also reveal more about the health of Bowden Francis, who recently got a cortisone shot in his right shoulder, and Alek Manoah, who should progress to rehab games in July. In the meantime, the likes of Eric Lauer and Spencer Turnbull will get chances to pitch, allowing the Blue Jays to get a better grasp on what they already have in-house. As for upper-level pitching prospects, no one’s on the cusp of the majors just yet.
In an ideal world, Scherzer and Lauer both perform at a high level while Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman keep doing their thing. But the Blue Jays’ pro scouting department will assess the market for mid-rotation arms and there’s a case to be made for seeking a top starter if at all possible — someone who can start a playoff game.
As of now, executives describe the starting pitching market as weak, but that could change if an opportunistic seller or two emerges, so the Blue Jays will survey the options in case there’s a fit.
