By the time July 1 hit, we all knew it was going to feel like a free-agent fizzle. And, when you cast back on this past season, you can spot a few developments that led us here.
For as flat as free agency fell, the 2025 trade deadline was an absolutely rollicking day. But a lot of the business that gone done in early March directly or indirectly wound up sucking some of the exhilaration out of July.
The shocker of deadline day was Mikko Rantanen being traded for a second time in a short span, then inking an eight-year deal with the Dallas Stars as part of that transaction.
With that, free agency lost a co-headliner, and a massive one at that.
Mitch Marner, of course, was the other guy we thought teams would be giddy to pitch on July 1. But, in a wild twist, Marner’s deadline became intertwined with Rantanen’s when Carolina and the Toronto Maple Leafs explored trade options involving the pending UFAs. Though Marner wound up flexing his trade protection to remain in Toronto, conversations with other teams — including the Vegas Golden Knights — occurred. As it turned out, some of what Marner heard from the Knights at that time piqued his interest and ultimately helped sway him in the direction of the desert in the form of a sign-and-trade before he ever truly became a free agent.
One of deadline day’s biggest “holy bleep” moments was Brad Marchand moving from Boston to Florida minutes before all transactions had to stop. Had things not gone so storybook in South Florida after that, with Marchand being a vital contributor on a Stanley Cup champion, would he really have re-upped there instead of hitting the open market he appeared destined for when he was traded from Boston?
Surely the immaculate post-parade vibes played a large role in Marchand and even Aaron Ekblad deciding they’d explore every possible angle to make it work with the Panthers.
Take two more big names off the board.
If you go all the way back to November, when trade talk starts to kick up around the NHL, nobody felt like a safer bet to be dealt before the deadline — and, presumably, hit the open market after that — than pending-UFA defenceman Ivan Provorov.
But a surprisingly strong season from Columbus convinced management not to trade him in-season and that faith was rewarded when the 28-year-old signed a seven-year pact to stay in Ohio one day before he could reach free agency.
All of this meant the fireworks on July 1 were a bit muted compared to past explosions. Still, lots of important business got done and the day still managed to deliver a surprise or two.
With that, let’s dive into the winners and losers from the start of free agency and the days that immediately preceded it.
Winners
I mean, all they do is win, right?
The back-to-back champs managed to keep Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad and Brad Marchand in the fold when it seemed likely at least one of Ekblad or Marchand were a good bet to test the open market.
Anybody crying about how long Marchand’s deal is — a six-year pact that takes him through is 43rd birthday — has completely missed the point. Marchand is going to be a good player for at least half the contract and Florida could conceivably hang a couple more banners in that time.
This team could really carve out a unique place for itself in the entire history of the sport in the next half decade.
Vegas Golden Knights
The chance to land needle-moving players like Marner is rare and Vegas disproportionately finds ways to get it done when one emerges. The Knights did it again, making themselves the preferred landing spot for a pending UFA coming off a 102-point season. Since the start of 2019-20, only seven players have posted more points than the 517 put up by Marner.
What’s more is Vegas had a throbbing need for help on the flanks and managed to grab Marner without having to sacrifice the salary of centres Tomas Hertl or William Karlsson, as some speculated the club might have to do.
The news that Alex Pietrangelo is likely done playing hockey hits hard — especially due to his universally respected status — but Vegas will soldier on and Marner is a major boost to this team’s attempt to regain its 2023 championship form.
The biggest shock of the day was surely Brock Boeser re-signing in Vancouver on a seven-year deal that carries a $7.25 million AAV.
This relationship seemed done from both sides countless times over the past few seasons, so to see these crazy kids work it out is great. Boeser obviously wanted to stay and it’s hard to imagine there were better scoring options out there for the Canucks.
Throw in extensions for Conor Garland and Thatcher Demko and it’s been a quality couple days for GM Patrik Allvin. If you take issue with Demko’s future cap hit of $8.5 million, all we can say is that feels like a better risk to take than trying to find a puck-stopping alternative on the bleak goalie landscape.
You wouldn’t expect to say this about a club coming off such a dysfunctional season, but keeping the band together feels like the right move in B.C.
The Canes locked up promising rookie Logan Stankoven on an eight-year deal and — after leveraging their willingness to bust out an offer sheet — worked out a deal with the New York Rangers to land defenceman K’Andre Miller and get him signed to an eight-year deal.
We also ended July 1 feeling like Carolina was the frontrunner to land Nik Ehlers, the last big fish on the open market.
The Canes are doing just fine as it is. If they ink Ehlers, Carolina is a clear winner.
Remember two years ago, when we all thought the unglamorous Gavrikov could do pretty well on the 2023 open market after being traded from Columbus to L.A.?
He wound up inking a two-year deal with the Kings with an eye toward hitting the open market when the cap was beginning to rise. That’s exactly what happened and Gavrikov, who turns 30 in November, secured a nearly $50-million bag from the Rangers that could have been even bigger if New York wasn’t his preferred landing spot.
Say what you will about how much teams value big defenceman with Gavrikov’s profile come playoff time, $49 million (to be exact) is an impressive sum of money for a guy to command when he’s never hit 35 points in a season.
Losers
Toronto Maple Leafs
Everything on the periphery — from getting John Tavares on a sweetheart deal, to locking down Matthew Knies at a great AAV to getting at least something (in the form of Nicolas Roy) for Marner — has been good, but you can’t lose a player like Marner for nearly nothing and wake up the next day feeling great.
The centrepiece of the Leafs’ off-season may still be coming, but all we know for sure right now is they’re down one first-line player. Also, those “If you can’t beat ’em, get ’em” dreams of landing Brad Marchand or Aaron Ekblad are officially dashed.
Toronto can play the long game, but it’s playing from behind right now.
Losing Gavrikov — a player the Kings clearly wanted to keep — hurts, but this is also about never getting a foot in the door with Mitch Marner. Los Angeles needs an offensive jolt and Marner was a natural fit.
In the end, new GM Ken Holland never got a chance to take the bat off the shoulder.
If they can’t convince Nik Ehlers to join their ranks, it’s hard to see the Kings’ path to improvement.
Whatever you think of the $10.5-million cap hit, getting Evan Bouchard’s four-year contract done and dusted was a positive development for the Oil.
That said, a lot of valuable depth — from Corey Perry to Connor Brown to John Klingberg — went out the door and any notion the Oilers could do something to upgrade the crease was killed by a grim goalie market that became completely barren once Jake Allen re-upped in New Jersey.
In keeping with the “loser” category theme, there’s a bit of a wait-and-see element to Edmonton’s off-season.
For now, it’s not what you want.
Though we didn’t know (as of late Wednesday morning) where Nik Ehlers was going to land, the fact it’s likely somewhere other than Winnipeg is a big blow for the Jets.
Of course, if Ehlers and the Jets circle back to each other like Brock Boeser and the Canucks, Winnipeg vaults up to the “winner” category.
