In most basic terms, the Winnipeg Jets’ off-season feels like it can be distilled down to this: One major piece in, one major piece out.
The Jets officially signed hometown boy Jonathan Toews to a one-year contract on July 1. Though Toews has not played in the NHL in two years, that move generated the kinds of buzz that’s rooted in more than just the fact a local hero — and one of this century’s defining NHLers — will be suiting up for the team.
Though nobody is expecting prime Toews, there’s reason to believe — given enough runway to get back up to speed — that even at 37 years old, Toews can become a player who capably fills a big need at second-line centre.
That’s the good news.
The downer is that, after 11 years with the organization, winger Nikolaj Ehlers left Winnipeg as a Carolina-bound free agent. There’s no sugarcoating the fact that Ehlers’ departure leaves a sizable hole among the top-six forward group.
How things work out in the wash for a club that topped the NHL last season with 116 points remains to be seen. An optimist may think the Toews move will pan out and that will represent a net positive — even with Ehlers leaving — because you’ve filled a need at a more important position down the middle.
Somebody with a dimmer view would note you just can’t bank on Toews being a top-six player after so much time away and that the team would be hard-pressed to find anybody on the trade market with the type of game-breaking ability Ehlers flashes.
Aside from shuffling the top two lines, most of Winnipeg’s summer roster moves to this point could be considered peripheral tweaks.
Depth Chart
Forwards
Kyle Connor — Mark Scheifele — Gabe Vilardi
Nino Niederreiter — Jonathan Toews — Cole Perfetti
Alex Iaffalo — Vladislav Namestnikov — Gustav Nyquist
Tanner Pearson — Morgan Barron — Cole Koepke
Walker Duehr
Defence
Josh Morrissey — Dylan DeMelo
Dylan Samberg — Neal Pionk
Haydn Fleury — Luke Schenn
Elias Salomonsson
Goal
Connor Hellebuyck
Eric Comrie
Injured reserve
Adam Lowry
Total forward cap hit: $40.10 million
Total defence cap hit: $24.60 million
Total goalie cap hit: $9.33 million
Cap space remaining: $19.90 million
What’s left to do this summer
Sign two first-line wingers
Two-thirds of the Jets’ top line is either without a contract for next season or one year away from unrestricted free agency.
Gabe Vilardi is an RFA, while Kyle Connor is eligible for an extension with one year to go on a pact that pays him just over $7 million annually against the cap.
Vilardi, who is ineligible to receive an offer sheet because he filed for arbitration, has been injury-prone, and that may be a bit of a complicating factor when it comes to determining his value. He scored 27 goals in 71 games this past season, and both those numbers represented career highs. Overall, the six-foot-three Vilardi has scored at nearly a 35-goal pace when in the Jets lineup. He turns 26 in August and you have to believe Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff would like to settle this issue rather than deal with the potential headache of an arbitration hearing — they’re slated to run July 20 through Aug. 4 — and a ruling that would put Vilardi one year closer to becoming an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2027.
As for Connor, he’d be a whale on the 2026 UFA market. He hit the 40-goal plateau for the second time in his career this past winter and has led the team in goals in five of the past six seasons. He’s a vitally important member of the squad and Cheveldayoff would surely love to lock Connor up on a long-term pact like the ones he struck with Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck in 2023. Recall, the twin extensions for those players came right before the start of the 2023-24 season, so there’s not necessarily reason to panic if Connor — who turns 29 in December — does not ink a new deal right away this summer.
Keep those pens handy
While Vilardi and Connor are the most high-profile players the team will negotiate with this off-season, there’s no shortage of other important contract business to tend to.
Top-four blue-liner Dylan Samberg is an RFA who is one year away from being able to test the open market. Like Vilardi, Samberg filed for arbitration, so the threat of an offer sheet is removed. The six-foot-four American brings valued physicality to the Jets back end, and he sure feels like a guy Cheveldayoff would like to secure the services of for the next eight years.
Morgan Barron, a full-timer on the club or the past three seasons now, is also an RFA in need of a new deal.
Then there’s captain Adam Lowry. He’s entering the final year of his contract on the heels of hip surgery, which is going to keep him out of the lineup for at least a couple months to start the season. The 32-year-old is a big presence on the ice and in the dressing room for Winnipeg, so maybe — even with the uncertainty his injury brings — Cheveldayoff will strike a deal with Lowry before training camp begins in September, negating any possibility he hits the open market in 2026.
Monitor the trade market
It’s unlikely the Jets will make a big move to land an Ehlers replacement, but Cheveldayoff obviously must keep his finger on the pulse in case anything shakes loose on the trade front. While the most likely scenario is Winnipeg counting on improvement from within and a good season from Toews to make up for the loss of Ehlers, there’s always the chance something presents itself on the trade market.
Grading the off-season C-plus
It’s just tough to go any higher than C-plus when the top offensive player to hit the open market leaves your team. That said, Winnipeg was surely braced for the idea that Ehlers would depart, and talked over contingency plans. One of those smaller moves that might wind up making a difference is the free agent acquisition of Gustav Nyquist on a low-risk, one-year deal. Yes, he’ll be 36 in September, but the Swede scored 75 points in 2023-24 in Nashville. That’s an ambitious number to hope for this coming season, though a 20-35-55 campaign is surely within the realm of possibility in a good situation for the veteran.
Really, if Winnipeg’s off-season winds up being defined by the loss of Ehlers and a bunch of good, new contracts for Vilardi, Connor and Samberg, it will feel like a win, on balance, for the franchise.
