TORONTO — Trey Yesavage will face his biggest challenge yet Thursday, when he’s scheduled to pitch at triple-A Buffalo for the first time in his professional career.
Yesavage, a 22-year-old right-hander with an unorthodox release point and impressive minor-league stats, now ranks as the Toronto Blue Jays’ top prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. Drafted 20th overall just last year, he has already been promoted three times this year, graduating from low-A Dunedin all the way to Buffalo. Along the way, he has a 3.01 ERA with 134 strikeouts compared to just 30 walks in 80.2 innings.
Now that he’s just a step removed from the major leagues, it’s reasonable to wonder whether a big-league debut could happen before the end of the regular season, potentially setting up a role for Yesavage in the playoffs. To better understand that decision, let’s look back at historical precedent, take stock of the potential opportunity in Toronto and determine what it would mean for the team’s 40-man roster:
PRECEDENT
The last 25 years include plenty of examples of pitchers debuting late in the season before impressing in October. Any such list must begin with Francisco Rodríguez, who pitched five games in the 2002 regular season before dominating over the course of 11 relief appearances on the way to the Angels’ first ever title.
Joba Chamberlain enjoyed a similarly impressive arc with the 2007 Yankees, as did David Price with the 2008 Rays and Matt Moore on the 2011 Rays. In each case, the pitchers were considered top prospects.
More recently, Orion Kerkering made seven playoff appearances following just three regular season games for the 2023 Phillies. And just last year, Erik Sabrowski of the Guardians (8) and Jackson Jobe of the Tigers (2) made as many post-season appearances as they did regular-season appearances.
As these examples show, there is precedent for promoting top prospects late in the year and handing them important playoff innings mere weeks later. The Blue Jays have done it too, as they placed rookies Nate Pearson and Thomas Hatch on their 2020 playoff roster just a couple months after the pitchers made their MLB debuts.
Of course, there’s plenty of precedent for not promoting top prospects, too, and that list would be much longer. So while it’s possible the Blue Jays promote Yesavage, many things still have to line up for that to happen.
OPPORTUNITY
Step 1 for Yesavage: stay healthy. Step 2: continue pitching well. Without those two elements, nothing else matters. But if Yesavage continues to impress, he’ll put himself in position to be considered for a call-up as the season progresses.
At this moment, the Blue Jays are well positioned with respect to their starting rotation, as Shane Bieber should soon be ready for big-league action and Alek Manoah is working his way back, too. Yet a quarter of the season still remains, meaning there’s plenty of time for unexpected needs to emerge.
Looking beyond the starting rotation, it’s perhaps most likely that Yesavage’s role at the MLB level would first be pitching out of the bullpen just as fellow starting pitching prospects Chamberlain, Price and Jobe did. In that scenario, Yesavage would need one of the team’s eight bullpen spots to open up instead of one of only five rotation spots. In theory, Yesavage would likely be in the bullpen in October, too.
Now, the better he pitches in Buffalo, the more he improves his chances of getting that shot.
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DEVELOPMENT
Given Yesavage’s importance to the organization, the Blue Jays aren’t about to proceed recklessly here. The more reps he gets as a starting pitcher, the better he can get at game-planning, holding runners, using his full arsenal and adjusting to the physical strain of a starter’s workload. Long-term, those reps are valuable, as there’s still a lot Yesavage can learn this early in his pro career.
With that in mind, it appears likely the Blue Jays will give him at least a few weeks in triple-A to prove himself at that level. But on Sept. 21, the triple-A season ends, and at some point next month the best learning environment for a young prospect thriving at triple-A would arguably be the majors.
ROSTER
On Sept. 1, rosters expand to 28, allowing teams to carry up to one more pitcher. That’s one factor to consider with Yesavage, or any other top prospect.
Also worth considering is the state of Toronto’s 40-man roster. As of Thursday morning, Yesavage is not on the Blue Jays’ 40-man and he doesn’t have to be added this winter, either. Under those circumstances, there is a cost to adding him now. It’s one fewer spot to work with over the winter, and it starts his option clock, potentially limiting the team’s flexibility in future seasons, should they need to option him later.
Ultimately, these 40-man roster considerations won’t stop the Blue Jays from fielding their best roster down the stretch, but they’re still part of the broader picture. If Yesavage has trouble adjusting to triple-A, the Blue Jays can simply let him finish the season there and regroup for 2026. But if he continues excelling between the lines and working diligently behind the scenes, he has a chance to force the Blue Jays’ hand.
