TORONTO – Max Scherzer hasn’t watched Paul Skenes pitch in person yet, and he’s looking forward to getting that chance Monday, when the 23-year-old phenom will face the Blue Jays for the first time.
Now 41, Scherzer has three Cy Young Awards and two World Series titles to his name while Skenes was National League Rookie of the Year last season and might be on his way to his first Cy Young. When the Pirates ace takes the mound against Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman on Monday, Scherzer expects to see explosive stuff from the pitcher with a 98-m.p.h. fastball and five breaking pitches.
That arsenal helped Skenes post a 1.99 ERA through his first 46 MLB starts – the lowest mark of the last 105 years – before the Brewers scored four against him last week. Impressive numbers like that reflect lots of work behind the scenes for Skenes, a converted catcher and former first-overall pick, but for Scherzer what’ll be most impressive is if Skenes can sustain this success inning after inning and year after year.
“To me the biggest thing is durability,” Scherzer said alongside the third-base dugout at Rogers Centre over the weekend. “You have a lot of pitchers come up with really good stuff, and that’s great. Obviously he’s off to a great start in his career, one of the best starts to a career ever, but I want to see him go 200 innings. The biggest thing I watch for year over year is durability.”
“I want to see what he’s doing in 2027, not just now.”
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Watch Blue Jays vs. Skenes on Sportsnet
The American League-leading Toronto Blue Jays battle all-star Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday. Watch the series opener on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ starting at 6:40 p.m. ET / 3:40 p.m. PT.
Entering play Monday, Skenes has pitched 148 innings, up from last year’s total of 133. The 52-73 Pirates have managed his workload carefully, throttling back on pitch counts at times such as over the four-start span preceding the all-star break when he averaged just 80 pitches per outing.
Regardless of how well Skenes conditions himself – and he’s said to be extremely diligent in his work behind the scenes – the Pirates may have decided that the risk of over-exerting him is simply not worth the reward during a losing season. Even so, he’s on track to complete 180-190 innings at his current pace, partly because he’s so efficient.
Scherzer has pitched 200-plus innings six times, along with another pair of 195-inning seasons back in 2010-11. When he was establishing himself as a young pitcher, he recalls seeking out every advantage possible, whether it was a coach’s perspective or analytics – “sabermetrics, as they were called at the time,” Scherzer notes.
In the years since, he has seen lots of hard-throwing young pitchers emerge, but the ones who impress him most add command and feel for pitching to the equation while finding ways to stay on the field consistently.
“Right,” Scherzer said. “There are a lot of guys who throw hard and don’t get strikeouts. Location gets overlooked and just reading hitters, what they’re thinking and what they’re trying to do. All of that goes into pitching, too.”
Beyond his stuff, Skenes also locates and sequences his plus pitches well, making him an exceptionally tough opponent at a time that the Blue Jays are facing a run of frontline starters. Over the last week and a half alone, they’ve opposed Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Matthew Boyd, Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi on their way to series wins over the Cubs and Rangers.
It’s been a challenge Blue Jays hitters have encountered often this year with matchups against aces like Garrett Crochet, Bryan Woo, Hunter Brown, Zack Wheeler and Tarik Skubal earlier in the season. An admittedly subjective review of Blue Jays boxscores shows they have faced 30 pitchers who could be described as elite pitchers (this includes Dylan Cease and Seth Lugo, for instance, but not MacKenzie Gore or Brayan Bello).
In those 30 starts, the pitchers have combined to average just shy of six innings per start against the Blue Jays with a 2.78 ERA, a 9.5-per-cent walk rate (MLB average is 8.4 per cent) and a 20.4-per-cent strikeout rate (MLB average is 21.9 per cent). Put simply, Jays hitters have been tough at-bats with more walks and fewer strikeouts than you’d expect – but still not that many runs. And not only will the Blue Jays face Skenes this week, they’re likely to see Eury Perez of the Marlins on Sunday, so the tests will keep coming – a potential preview of what’s ahead in October.
And if Skenes were to approach Scherzer in Pittsburgh this week to ask him how he’s been able to stay durable enough to pitch for 18 years and remain a playoff calibre starter with a 3.83 ERA at age 41?
“Well, I don’t want to say anything publicly because these are things I’ve learned over a long period of time and I don’t want to just give it away to everyone,” Scherzer said.
So what if Skenes asked privately – just pitcher to pitcher? Contemplating the question, Scherzer paused and looked out toward the infield, where Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and bench coach Don Mattingly were playing catch.
“I don’t know,” he said after reflecting for a moment. “I don’t know. Because I care about starting pitching, but he’s still competition. He’s going up against our team. So I don’t know. I’d have to think about it.”
